Pace of play gives the prospective DFS player an opportunity to consider not just Vegas totals but how the game will be played out in a given week. Game flow is a tricky rabbit hole to jump down when you consider the endless scenarios that can play out in a game. Stacking up-tempo offenses who can keep the ball moving is crucial to gaining an edge in DFS. Even slight differentiations of team trends matter in a world where volume is king.
Each week I’ll highlight my favorite game environments factoring in their pace metrics, stacks to consider for tournaments, and five dart throws to shoot for the moon with.
Game Pace Score
A reminder of a simple metric I introduced a couple of years ago: Game Pace Score(GPS). I liked the acronym to also give you a “compass” of how the game total and neutral pace statistics come together. These scores are ranked 1-5 with five indicating the pace of the play is everything you want for a DFS bonanza.
- 5– A back-and-forth shootout is looming. Both teams are pace-up and both sport team implied totals of 25+.
- 4– An up-tempo spot worth game stacking in DFS in multiple ways. Consider multiple game scripts in play.
- 3– This game could go either way. Often, these are onslaught spots for teams with healthy implied totals or games that hit the under because two middling offenses collide.
- 2– Strong indications of a game you want to stay away from. Usually, the pace is dragged down by one team with an absurdly slow neutral pace or a team with a team implied total so low it drags the entire game environment through the mud.
- 1– This has all the makings of a plodder. These games have totals UNDER 40 which gives you zero confidence in DFS.
For Week 6, I’ve sorted by all 32 team implied totals while focusing on seconds per play and pass rate over expectation (PROE), and Expected Points Added per play (EPA) ranks from the first six weeks. Keep in mind how small of a sample size we are dealing with.
For those that would like a CSV version of the above chart, you can download the Week 7 Pace of Play CSV.
Washington Commanders @ Dallas Cowboys
Oh baby, it feels like we are living in 2020 all over again! I’ve shared this before but the DFS landscape 5+ years back was so different when we weekly had games of 50+ and even 55+ on the schedule. This one has been bet up from where it opened and it certainly profiles as one of the games of the year. We’ve piled on the Cowboys over and over again because of the recipe of fantasy goodness they provide: a high-powered offense (x in ppg) and a defense that seems bent on letting any and every offense have their way. Their games have combined (on average) for 60.3 points! It is not just Dallas that gets us excited about this game as both teams rank in the top-7 in seconds per play and tied for top-10 in PROE. Whenever I see bottom-5 units in EPA per pass attempt facing off with one another, I open up my player pool to include any and everyone.
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