NFL DFS Pace of Play: Game Stacks for Week 5 (Fantasy Football)

It’s Week 5 people! A 10-game main slate condenses some of our options to consider for tournaments.

Pace of play gives the prospective DFS player an opportunity to consider not just Vegas totals but how the game will be played out in a given week. Game flow is a tricky rabbit hole to jump down when you consider the endless scenarios that can play out in a game. Stacking up-tempo offenses who can keep the ball moving is crucial to gaining an edge in DFS. Even slight differentiations of team trends matter in a world where volume is king.

In this article, I highlight the top DFS game environments factoring in their pace metrics, stacks to consider for tournaments, and routes for game flows. I try to dip into some matchup-based discussions and then run with certain narratives to give you a lean early in the week of how I could see a game play out.

On Friday’s DFS & Betting Podcast, I talk through these games alongside Betz adding in DFS salaries and roster percentages.

Game Pace Score

A reminder of a simple metric I introduced a couple of years ago: Game Pace Score(GPS). I liked the acronym to also give you a “compass” of how the game total and neutral pace statistics come together. These scores are ranked 1-5 with five indicating the pace of the play is everything you want for a DFS bonanza.

• 5– A back-and-forth shootout is looming. Both teams are pace-up and both sport team implied totals of 25+.
• 4– An up-tempo spot worth game stacking in DFS in multiple ways. Consider multiple game scripts in play.
• 3– This game could go either way. Often, these are onslaught spots for teams with healthy implied totals or games that hit the under because two middling offenses collide.
• 2– Strong indications of a game you want to stay away from. Usually, the pace is dragged down by one team with an absurdly slow neutral pace or a team with a team implied total so low it drags the entire game environment through the mud.
• 1– This has all the makings of a plodder. These games have totals UNDER 40 which gives you zero confidence in DFS.

For Week 5, I’ve sorted by all 32 team implied totals while focusing on seconds per play and pass rate over expectation (PROE), and Expected Points Added per play (EPA) ranks from Weeks 1-4. Keep in mind how small of a sample size we are dealing with. These don’t begin to normalize until 5-6 weeks into the season.

For those that would like a CSV version of the above chart, you can download the Week 5 Pace of Play CSV.

Las Vegas Raiders @ Indianapolis Colts

I’ve gone back and forth about this game as it scored just a 3.75/5 in the GPS score. In theory, we should have some offensive fireworks between two teams that we profiled last week in Pace of Play that also both lost. The Colts rank 4th in points per game despite operating as a fairly balanced offense ranking in the bottom-5 of neutral pace.

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