The Fantasy Footballers’ Starts of the Week for Week 1

Cue the intro music… because IT’S FOOTBALL TIME! After months of training camp rumors, heated sleeper debates, mock drafts, and real-deal fantasy drafts, the wait is finally over. NFL kickoff is here! The lights are on, the stage is set, and fantasy managers everywhere are sweating over those lineup calls. But don’t worry—The Ballers have your back! Andy, Mike, and Jason are rolling out their Starts of the Week, locking in the players primed for a big game and ready to kick your season off with fireworks (well, unless of course they are Najee Harris).

Want the full Thursday episode? Click the link below, and let the season of stress, glory, and ruthless lineup decisions begin.

Andy’s Starts of the Week

QB – Joe Burrow @ CLE

The “slow start” narrative? Andy isn’t buying into it this year. For the first time in Burrow’s career, he had a full, healthy offseason to ramp up. After narrowly missing the playoffs last season, the Bengals are more motivated than ever. Vegas agrees – Cincinnati’s 26.5-point implied total is the second-highest on the entire slate. And then there’s Cleveland’s defense. Last year, they allowed the highest rate of plays of 15 yards or more in the league. With Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins, that’s a recipe Burrow is going to exploit. Translation: big plays are coming.

RB – JK Dobbins vs. TEN

Looking for a sneaky veteran play to start the year? Don’t forget about JK Dobbins. Last season, he flashed early with back-to-back RB4 finishes, and Sean Payton has a track record of leaning on vets to open the year. While rookie RJ Harvey may bring the flash, Dobbins is still ranked as a low-end RB2/FLEX in our rankings. The key? Early-down work. That’s the strongest driver of fantasy points, not third-down snaps. And the setup couldn’t be better: the Broncos are 7.5-point home favorites. Over the last five years, teams favored by a TD or more at home have averaged 133 rushing yards per game and 29 points scored. That’s the script you want. Fire up Dobbins with confidence in Week 1.

WR – Jaxon Smith-Njigba vs. SF

Inside? Outside? Doesn’t matter—JSN is the WR1 for Sam Darnold. With Metcalf and Tyler Lockett shipped out, he’s now running alongside the ghost of Cooper Kupp. At home last season, JSN averaged eight targets and 72 yards per game, giving you a rock-solid weekly floor. And against these very 49ers? He commanded 20 targets across two matchups. That kind of volume is too good to ignore. In full PPR leagues, the Ballers have him ranked as a low-end WR1 you should feel confident plugging into lineups.

TE – Tyler Warren vs MIA

Andy is rolling with his My Guy Tyler Warren for Week 1. The Colts’ TEs combined for just 39 receptions last season—the fewest in the NFL—but that’s about to change with Warren, their 14th overall pick. The offense is set to funnel through him, and with Daniel Jones under center instead of Anthony Richardson, the rookie is in line for a steady diet of targets. The matchup lines up, too: Miami allowed the 8th-most receptions to TEs in 2024. Add in strong camp and preseason buzz, and everything points to Warren being heavily involved. Vegas has this game pegged with a 47.5 total and the Colts implied for 24.5 points. Rookie role + favorable matchup = green light start.

Jason’s Starts of the Week

QB –  Bo Nix vs TEN

The Broncos are 7.5-point home favorites with a 25.5 team implied total, and Nix has thrived in that script. At home last season, he averaged 21 fantasy points, 250 yards, and 2.5 passing TDs per game. Denver should control this matchup, and Nix profiles as a strong QB1 to kick off the year. Jason says fire up Bo Nix this week!

RB – Kenneth Walker vs. SF

Seattle wants to reestablish its run-first identity under Klint Kubiak’s new system—more TEs, fullbacks, and fewer turnovers than last year’s Ryan Grubb offense. That’s great news for Ken “Bone” Walker. In Week 1, the Seahawks face the 49ers, who ranked 29th against fantasy RBs last year. San Francisco gave up the most rushing TDs to RBs—well, they tied for it. Walker finished as RB13 and RB15 in his two games against the 49ers last season. Jason doesn’t see why he can’t do it again!

WR- Tetairoa McMillan @ JAX

You didn’t draft him to be GREAT on your bench! History tells us rookie WRs taken in the top 10 average 7+ targets per game, and with Jalen Coker out, McMillan should see that volume right away. The matchup couldn’t be juicier: the Jaguars were 30th vs. fantasy WRs and 31st in EPA per pass attempt last season. The Ballers have him ranked as a top-20 WR this week (WR19), and Jason is even higher—slotting him at WR15. Just because he’s a rookie doesn’t mean he’s not READY to hit the ground running.

TE – Mark Andrews @ BUF

Maybe you felt “stuck” drafting Andrews. He continued to fall in drafts. But guess what? You’ve hit the jackpot this week. Andrews sees the kind of valuable targets that matter in fantasy. Last year, he led all TEs with nine end-zone TDs on 9 EZ targets. This matchup against Buffalo is tailor-made for him. The 50.5-point total is the highest of the week, and the line has swung to Buffalo, favored by 1.5. This means there could be a shootout. The Bills run 2-high safety looks on 55% of dropbacks, and Andrews commanded a 15% target share vs that look—better than LaPorta—and delivered 0.46 fantasy points per route run (higher than Brock Bowers). He’s still the centerpiece of Baltimore’s red-zone passing game. Don’t overthink it and slide Andrews into your lineup.

Mike’s Starts of the Week

QB – Jordan Love vs Lions

Don’t let the year-end finish fool you, Love quietly took another step forward in 2024. He raised his TD rate from 5.5% to 5.9%, and his fantasy points per dropback outpaced Joe Burrow. Missing a few games masked just how good he was. Now, the matchup sets up perfectly. The Packers are 2.5-point home favorites with a 25-point implied total. Last year at Lambeau vs. Detroit, Love aired it out 39 times, which was his 2nd-most attempts of the season. He’s a strong QB1 start this week.

RB – James Conner @ Saints

The schedule sets up beautifully: Arizona has the easiest RB strength of schedule through the first six weeks. And this matchup? Chef’s kiss. Last season, the Saints ranked 30th in EPA per rush, 30th in rushing yards allowed per game, and 26th in fantasy points allowed to RBs. When healthy, Conner is a volume machine. Throw out Week 17 when he left hurt, and he averaged 19 opportunities per game. Now, the Cardinals enter as 6.5-point road favorites, giving him a positive game script. Although this may be a homer pick, Mike is right. Lock Conner into lineups as a rock-solid RB2 with RB1 upside.

WR – Drake London vs. TB

Mike saw what happened when Penix took over for Kirk Cousins down the stretch—London turned into a true ALPHA, commanding a 40% target share. This game carries a 47.5-point total (third-highest of the week), and it’s being played in a dome. You couldn’t ask for a better setup. Against Tampa at home last season, London shredded them with 13 targets for 12/154/1. The matchup fits his skill set, too: the Bucs played zone on 80% of dropbacks (highest in the NFL), and London earned 33% of his team’s first-read targets vs. zone—eighth-best in the league. Mike has him locked in as a high-volume WR1 this week.

TE – David Njoku vs Bengals

Njoku was a volume hog last year, averaging 8.5 targets per game—only Bowers and McBride saw more. With Joe Flacco under center, expect plenty of passing volume in what Vegas projects as a shootout (47.5 total). The matchup couldn’t be better. Cincinnati was dead last vs. fantasy TEs in 2024 and allowed 111 receptions to the position—the most by any team in the last 8 years. Njoku is locked in as a top-tier TE for Week 1.

 

from Fantasy Footballers Podcast https://ift.tt/HQUYKWM