Week 1 is in the books. Welcome to the weekly Targets Per Route Run, or TPRR, report for 2025. We will start each week looking back on the games just played, and try to see where that points us for the weeks ahead.
It would be a mistake to overreact to one game (i.e., don’t trade Ja’Marr Chase for Zay Flowers just yet), as new QBs, offenses, and rookies work to find their footing. I’m hesitant to predict much at this point in the season, so consider this first report a tone-setter for how we’ll be evaluating opportunities and obstacles in the weeks to come.
Quick refresher: TPRR = targets ÷ routes run. It’s an on-field efficiency signal that often leads production by a week or two. As a general guideline, ~20% is considered a baseline; 25–30% is excellent, and anything above 30% is elite territory.
Data: pff.com
Week 1 Reactions — Boom/Bust/Dust
Three Green Flags
Anyone with a 30% TPRR or higher in week one is obviously a green flag here. Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Puka Nacua getting 50%+ TPRRs? Insane, yes, but that should just make their fantasy managers feel like geniuses.
- Keon Coleman — For a receiver running more than 40 routes, a 22% TPRR is an excellent mark. The Bills may not throw as much as they were forced to against Baltimore, but Coleman looks like MVP Josh Allen‘s go-to guy.
- Deebo Samuel — The stat line is padded because of the rushing score, but fantasy managers won’t complain. What gets me excited, though, is ten targets on 30 routes run (32%TPRR) right out of the gate. Stay healthy, Deebo.
- Keenan Allen — Just watch the game if you’re not convinced. Allen was open all night, giving Justin Herbert a safety valve whenever he needed it. He led the Chargers in targets, and his 31% TPRR bested Quentin Johnston (19%) and Ladd McConkey (24%). It’s a crowded receiver room, but Allen should provide plenty of fantasy relevance in 2025.
Others: Garrett Wilson rewarded those who kept the faith, and Zay Flowers wants to make the case for a top-12 WR in Baltimore this season. Several rookies showed a strong early rapport with their QBs: Tetairoa McMillan, Emeka Egbuka, Travis Hunter, and Elic Ayomanor.
Yellow Flags
- Chicago’s WR room — Caleb Williams‘ first game in Ben Johnson‘s system was a mixed bag, but showed plenty of promise. Rome Odunze (19.1% TPRR) looks like a threat to DJ Moore‘s (13% TPRR) role as WR1, but the targets were spread out in Week 1. We may learn that Williams can support more than one fantasy-relevant receiver, but I’m hesitant to buy in.
- Terry McLaurin — “F1” has never been a TPRR monster (18% in 2024; finished WR6), but a 12% TPRR is low. A healthy Deebo Samuel and Zach Ertz could spell trouble for the WR who has a new contract to keep him happy this season.
NothingBurgers
- Philadelphia’s WRs — I’m a little concerned here, but I’m not going to overreact. The Eagles’ offense is elite, and hopefully, Week 2 can erase memories of an abysmal Week 1 for both A.J. Brown (1 target, 3% TPRR) and DeVonta Smith (9% TPRR). The fact of the matter is that some weeks will be like this because of the ability of Saquon Barkley and Jalen Hurts to score on their own. The Chiefs gave up the most WR points in fantasy against the Chargers, so a bounce back is on the cards.
- Bengals WRs – The notoriously slow-starting Bengals offense started, you guessed it, slowly. It was tough to watch consensus 1.01 Ja’Marr Chase go for 27 yards, but history tells us brighter days are ahead for Chase and Tee Higgins.
- Davante Adams – Adams didn’t have a great scoreline as the WR2 in LA, but a 27.6% TPRR is a healthy tally. Don’t freak out even if the run game features more in Week 2.
- Amon-Ra St. Brown – The Lions were outlasted by Green Bay in Week 1, to be sure, but ARSB will be fine. I’m more concerned about Jameson Williams in Detroit.
Player Watch
Marquise Brown — 30.4% TPRR on 46 routes. With Rashee Rice suspended and Xavier Worthy nursing a Kelce-induced shoulder injury, Hollywood, rostered in only 31% of Sleeper leagues, dominated the target share from Patrick Mahomes. Speaking of Kelce, he was only targeted four times in a game where Worthy went out in the first series. As long as Brown can stay on the field, he should have plenty to do against Philly in Week 2. (In deeper leagues, give JuJu Smith-Schuster a look.)
Jakobi Meyers – 27% TPRR. Jakobi Meyers‘ stock took a hit when Amari Cooper signed with the Raiders. With Cooper’s retirement and Brock Bowers potentially missing time, Meyers is in line to lead the way for the Las Vegas passing attack. Other player to consider: Michael Meyer, filling in for Bowers.
TPRR – The Full List (WRs, Min. 15 routes)
| Week 1 Targets Per Route Run – WR – Min 15 routes | |||||
| Rank | Player | Team | Routes | Targets | TPRR |
| 1 | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | SEA | 23 | 13 | 56.5% |
| 2 | Puka Nacua | LA | 22 | 11 | 50.0% |
| 3 | Zay Flowers | BLT | 22 | 9 | 40.9% |
| 4 | CeeDee Lamb | DAL | 32 | 13 | 40.6% |
| 5 | Drake London | ATL | 39 | 14 | 35.9% |
| 6 | Deebo Samuel | WAS | 31 | 10 | 32.3% |
| 7 | Garrett Wilson | NYJ | 25 | 8 | 32.0% |
| 8 | Keenan Allen | LAC | 32 | 10 | 31.3% |
| 9 | Marquise Brown | KC | 46 | 14 | 30.4% |
| 10 | Chris Olave | NO | 43 | 13 | 30.2% |
| 11 | Travis Hunter | JAX | 27 | 8 | 29.6% |
| 12 | Justin Jefferson | MIN | 25 | 7 | 28.0% |
| 13 | Davante Adams | LA | 29 | 8 | 27.6% |
| 13 | Michael Pittman Jr. | IND | 29 | 8 | 27.6% |
| 15 | Tyreek Hill | MIA | 22 | 6 | 27.3% |
| 16 | Jakobi Meyers | LV | 37 | 10 | 27.0% |
| 17 | Calvin Ridley | TEN | 32 | 8 | 25.0% |
| 17 | Elic Ayomanor | TEN | 28 | 7 | 25.0% |
| 19 | Mike Evans | TB | 33 | 8 | 24.2% |
| 20 | Jaylen Waddle | MIA | 21 | 5 | 23.8% |
| 21 | Ladd McConkey | LAC | 38 | 9 | 23.7% |
| 22 | Romeo Doubs | GB | 17 | 4 | 23.5% |
| 23 | Olamide Zaccheaus | CHI | 26 | 6 | 23.1% |
| 24 | Tetairoa McMillan | CAR | 35 | 8 | 22.9% |
| 25 | Joshua Palmer | BUF | 40 | 9 | 22.5% |
| 26 | Sterling Shepard | TB | 27 | 6 | 22.2% |
| 27 | Keon Coleman | BUF | 50 | 11 | 22.0% |
| 28 | Wan’Dale Robinson | NYG | 37 | 8 | 21.6% |
| 29 | Troy Franklin | DEN | 28 | 6 | 21.4% |
| 30 | Brian Thomas Jr. | JAX | 33 | 7 | 21.2% |
| 30 | D.K. Metcalf | PIT | 33 | 7 | 21.2% |
| 32 | Courtland Sutton | DEN | 43 | 9 | 20.9% |
| 32 | Malik Nabers | NYG | 43 | 9 | 20.9% |
| 34 | Calvin Austin III | PIT | 29 | 6 | 20.7% |
| 35 | Rashid Shaheed | NO | 46 | 9 | 19.6% |
| 36 | Rome Odunze | CHI | 41 | 8 | 19.5% |
| 37 | Quentin Johnston | LAC | 36 | 7 | 19.4% |
| 38 | Xavier Legette | CAR | 31 | 6 | 19.4% |
| 39 | Malik Washington | MIA | 26 | 5 | 19.2% |
| 39 | Jauan Jennings | SF | 26 | 5 | 19.2% |
| 41 | Stefon Diggs | NE | 37 | 7 | 18.9% |
| 42 | Ja’Marr Chase | CIN | 27 | 5 | 18.5% |
| 43 | Kayshon Boutte | NE | 44 | 8 | 18.2% |
| 44 | Josh Downs | IND | 17 | 3 | 17.6% |
| 45 | Khalil Shakir | BUF | 46 | 8 | 17.4% |
| 45 | Cedric Tillman | CLV | 46 | 8 | 17.4% |
| 45 | Jerry Jeudy | CLV | 46 | 8 | 17.4% |
| 48 | Ricky Pearsall | SF | 35 | 6 | 17.1% |
| 48 | Marvin Harrison Jr. | ARZ | 35 | 6 | 17.1% |
| 50 | Emeka Egbuka | TB | 36 | 6 | 16.7% |
| 50 | Nico Collins | HST | 30 | 5 | 16.7% |
| 52 | Dont’e Thornton Jr. | LV | 25 | 4 | 16.0% |
| 52 | Tee Higgins | CIN | 25 | 4 | 16.0% |
| 54 | Rashod Bateman | BLT | 19 | 3 | 15.8% |
| 55 | Hunter Renfrow | CAR | 33 | 5 | 15.2% |
| 56 | Marvin Mims Jr. | DEN | 27 | 4 | 14.8% |
| 56 | Michael Wilson | ARZ | 27 | 4 | 14.8% |
| 58 | Dyami Brown | JAX | 28 | 4 | 14.3% |
| 58 | Noah Brown | WAS | 21 | 3 | 14.3% |
| 60 | DJ Moore | CHI | 38 | 5 | 13.2% |
| 60 | JuJu Smith-Schuster | KC | 38 | 5 | 13.2% |
| 62 | Casey Washington | ATL | 46 | 6 | 13.0% |
| 62 | Jahan Dotson | PHI | 23 | 3 | 13.0% |
| 64 | Demario Douglas | NE | 39 | 5 | 12.8% |
| 65 | Terry McLaurin | WAS | 33 | 4 | 12.1% |
| 65 | George Pickens | DAL | 33 | 4 | 12.1% |
| 67 | Josh Reynolds | NYJ | 25 | 3 | 12.0% |
| 67 | Cooper Kupp | SEA | 25 | 3 | 12.0% |
| 69 | Amon-Ra St. Brown | DET | 42 | 5 | 11.9% |
| 70 | KaVontae Turpin | DAL | 17 | 2 | 11.8% |
| 71 | Jameson Williams | DET | 43 | 5 | 11.6% |
| 72 | Alec Pierce | IND | 27 | 3 | 11.1% |
| 72 | Jalen Tolbert | DAL | 18 | 2 | 11.1% |
| 72 | Justin Watson | HST | 18 | 2 | 11.1% |
| 75 | Tyquan Thornton | KC | 38 | 4 | 10.5% |
| 76 | Brandin Cooks | NO | 42 | 4 | 9.5% |
| 76 | Mack Hollins | NE | 21 | 2 | 9.5% |
| 78 | DeVonta Smith | PHI | 33 | 3 | 9.1% |
| 78 | Kalif Raymond | DET | 33 | 3 | 9.1% |
| 80 | Xavier Hutchinson | HST | 23 | 2 | 8.7% |
| 81 | Tre Tucker | LV | 37 | 3 | 8.1% |
| 82 | Ray-Ray McCloud III | ATL | 38 | 3 | 7.9% |
| 83 | Nick Westbrook-Ikhine | MIA | 15 | 1 | 6.7% |
| 84 | Trent Sherfield | DEN | 16 | 1 | 6.3% |
| 85 | Adam Thielen | MIN | 17 | 1 | 5.9% |
| 86 | Tutu Atwell | LA | 19 | 1 | 5.3% |
| 87 | Zay Jones | ARZ | 20 | 1 | 5.0% |
| 88 | Jalen Nailor | MIN | 24 | 1 | 4.2% |
| 89 | Tyler Lockett | TEN | 26 | 1 | 3.8% |
| 90 | A.J. Brown | PHI | 33 | 1 | 3.0% |
| 91 | Darius Slayton | NYG | 44 | 1 | 2.3% |
from Fantasy Footballers Podcast https://ift.tt/cySG5Wn
No comments: