Targets Per Route Run Report: 2025 Season Preview (Fantasy Football)

Every fantasy season, there are a few players who turn into absolute game-changers. You need the heavy hitters, of course, but it’s also the waiver pickup that’s made a week early that can be the difference between fantasy immortality and relegation to an also-ran. The challenge is knowing when improvement crosses into must-start territory.

What if you had a way to spot it before the rest of your league? Let’s let the jagged pieces meet the light, and I’ll show you what’s underneath. This season, TPRR is What It Sounds Like:

So, what is TPRR?

Now that you’ve come back from watching the entire movie, we can begin. The math for TPRR is simple: targets ÷ routes run. The output, expressed as a percentage, is a rate that shows how often a player earns looks when they are on the field. Why it matters: While nothing is completely controlled by the receiver, targets are still an earned metric. It means a QB made the choice to throw it your direction, whatever the reason. And from year to year, targets are one of the stickiest and most predictive stats to predict future performance.

For example, George Pickens ran 399 routes and earned 93 looks in 2024, which works out to 23.3% TPRR. That’s essentially one target for every four routes run. Jameson Williams, another popular pick this season, only boasts an 18.2% TPRR (81 targets/446 routes). Their ADPs are within a round of each other, with Williams slightly ahead. History would tell us, even with a team change, Pickens is poised to do more with his routes than Williams.

What TPRR Can Do

Box scores tell us who scored. TPRR tells us who is positioned to score next. Because it tracks efficiency, TPRR can provide insight into players ready to break out— even if injuries or snap counts have kept their totals modest. That’s why it’s a goldmine for finding mid-season pickups before the hype hits.

At its core, TPRR is a receiver efficiency signal. It reflects the ability to earn targets (a skill) and/or the way a scheme prioritizes them. Historically, WRs finishing in the top 24 almost always post a TPRR north of ~20%. Anyone else is typically an outlier due to TDs, which are hard to predict from year to year.

What TPRR Can’t Do

It’s not a crystal ball. QB play, target competition, and offensive scheme all change the outcome. TPRR shines a spotlight, but you still have to read the room. Plus, while past performance is a good indicator of the future, it’s hard to predict a new season based on 2024.

Using my previous example, think of all that has changed for George Pickens for 2025. He’s in a new offense in Dallas with a TPRR monster in CeeDee Lamb (27.8%) and only a handful of vacated targets. When he was competing for targets with Diontae Johnson in 2023, Pickens’ TPRR was a middling 19.3%. On the other hand, the Cowboys are projected to throw a lot more with a healthy Dak Prescott (and no defense) than the Russell Wilson-led Steelers, and Pickens now has a few years’ experience under his belt. TPRR provides an extra detail to consider, but it doesn’t override everything else.

How to Use This for 2025

Think of Targets per Route Run as the truth serum that cuts through narratives. When you see high efficiency rates paired with opportunity, that’s your signal to get your guy. I will often look to TPRR as a tiebreaker in drafts when I am looking for stability (veterans) or upside (younger players).

It’s another data point to combine with expected role (snap share, depth chart), competition (new signings/rookies, vacated targets), scheme, and ADP (is it baked in already?). For Footclan and UDK members (why wouldn’t you be one?!), this information is readily available in the research and analysis tools.

Courtesy of the ADP tool in the Ultimate Draft Kit, I’ve added the 2024 TPRR stats for WRs, listed in order of their Average Draft Position (ADP).

ADP	Player	Team	TPRR
1.01	Ja’Marr Chase	CIN	23.98%
1.05	Justin Jefferson	MIN	24.87%
1.06	CeeDee Lamb	DAL	27.76%
1.10	Amon-Ra St. Brown	DET	25.38%
1.12	Malik Nabers	NYG	29.40%
2.01	Puka Nacua	LAR	37.05%
2.03	Nico Collins	HOU	27.49%
2.05	Drake London	ATL	26.18%
2.07	A.J. Brown	PHI	26.32%
2.08	Brian Thomas Jr.	JAX	24.23%
3.03	Ladd McConkey	LAC	22.94%
3.05	Tyreek Hill	MIA	22.43%
3.07	Tee Higgins	CIN	24.45%
3.08	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	SEA	21.57%
3.12	Marvin Harrison Jr.	ARI	21.18%
4.03	Mike Evans	TB	24.60%
4.07	Terry McLaurin	WAS	19.92%
4.07	Garrett Wilson	NYJ	24.02%
4.09	Davante Adams	LAR	25.41%
4.11	D.K. Metcalf	PIT	19.73%
5.03	Courtland Sutton	DEN	22.44%
5.04	DJ Moore	CHI	20.00%
5.08	Tetairoa McMillan	CAR	Rookie
5.10	DeVonta Smith	PHI	21.27%
5.10	Xavier Worthy	KC	18.06%
5.12	Jameson Williams	DET	18.16%
5.12	Zay Flowers	BAL	23.71%
6.01	George Pickens	DAL	23.31%
6.02	Rashee Rice	KC	31.87%
6.09	Calvin Ridley	TEN	20.49%
6.10	Travis Hunter	JAX	Rookie
6.12	Jaylen Waddle	MIA	16.82%
7.03	Jerry Jeudy	CLE	19.05%
7.05	Chris Olave	NO	22.87%
7.06	Rome Odunze	CHI	15.88%
7.07	Deebo Samuel	WAS	19.05%
7.10	Ricky Pearsall	SF	14.12%
8.01	Emeka Egbuka	TB	Rookie
8.02	Matthew Golden	GB	Rookie
8.04	Jakobi Meyers	LV	21.21%
8.07	Cooper Kupp	SEA	27.17%
8.09	Stefon Diggs	NE	22.96%
8.11	Jordan Addison	MIN	18.75%
9.04	Khalil Shakir	BUF	24.87%
9.09	Chris Godwin	TB	24.59%
9.11	Jauan Jennings	SF	24.22%
10.03	Michael Pittman Jr.	IND	22.10%
10.05	Keon Coleman	BUF	16.10%
10.08	Jayden Reed	GB	19.73%
10.11	Josh Downs	IND	27.52%
11.01	Jayden Higgins	HOU	Rookie
11.06	Rashid Shaheed	NO	23.39%
11.12	Brandon Aiyuk	SF	20.93%
11.12	Darnell Mooney	ATL	18.98%
12.10	Keenan Allen	LAC	22.09%
13.02	Marvin Mims Jr.	DEN	24.86%
13.05	Christian Kirk	HOU	21.36%
13.10	Luther Burden III	CHI	Rookie
14.03	Rashod Bateman	BAL	14.39%
14.10	Adam Thielen	MIN	20.68%
15.03	Joshua Palmer	BUF	16.11%
15.06	Tre’ Harris	LAC	Rookie
15.09	Isaac TeSlaa	DET	Rookie
15.12	Dont’e Thornton Jr.	LV	Rookie
16.03	Cedric Tillman	CLE	16.19%

 

*Updated 9/01/25

Players to Target in 2025

The ADP of these players is constantly in flux, but here are players I’m targeting instead of some others in the same range.

Second-Year WRs

• Historically, we see a lot of rookies with average TPRR’s make the jump above 21% in their second year, so I like taking some of these players over veterans. For the top tier, I am projecting Brian Thomas Jr. to finish ahead of AJ Brown, and I’m drafting Marvin Harrison Jr. over Tyreek Hill and Tee Higgins.
• Marvin Mims Jr. — 24% TPRR in 2024; we’re all expecting the Bo Nix leap in 2025, so why can’t Marvin Mims join the party? Mims flashed ability with limited opportunities, and Devaughn Vele‘s trade to New Orleans leaves an additional 10% of targets available; Draft him over: Keon Coleman.

Post-Hype Breakouts

• Garrett Wilson — 24% TPRR in 2024; currently being drafted around WR 18-20, but Wilson is a target machine. If Justin Fields is competent, Wilson could finally hit that top-10 status we’ve been waiting for. Plus, the Jets have more targets up for grabs in 2025 (see Javier Manzanera’s excellent Vacated Targets article); Draft him over: Terry McLaurin, D.K. Metcalf, DJ Moore.

Veteran Values

• Cooper Kupp — 27% TPRR in ’24; can Kupp stay healthy? Is he washed? I think we’ll find out soon, and it’s a price I’m willing to pay for a third or fourth receiver. Sure, it’s the Jaxon Smith-Njigba show in Seattle now, but Kupp’s 2024 showed he can still earn targets at an elite clip. Plus, 32% of the receiver targets are up for grabs with both D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett out of the picture. Draft him over: Deebo Samuel.

Weekly TPRR Report (In-Season Plan)

This season, the TPRR report returns, with a weekly breakdown of the top players from the previous week and some analysis for the week ahead. Opportunities and red flags, and some occasional insights into other positions (RB, TE) and how they’re impacting the receiver position.

• Top 15 TPRR of the week
• Opportunities: strong TPRR but low fantasy points so far; depth chart changes
• Red flags: efficiency dips or role changes
• Season Leaders and Trends: efficiency dips or role changes

Good luck with your drafts. See you back here after Week 1 for the first 2025 TPRR report.

2024 Recap

For your reference, here’s how 2024 finished re: TPRR (min. 250 routes).

Targets Per Route Run – Through Week 16 (Min 240 routes)
Rank	Player	Team	Routes	Targets	TPRR
1	Puka Nacua	LA	278	103	37.1%
2	Malik Nabers	NYG	534	157	29.4%
3	CeeDee Lamb	DAL	526	146	27.8%
4	Josh Downs	IND	327	90	27.5%
5	Nico Collins	HST	342	94	27.5%
6	Cooper Kupp	LA	357	97	27.2%
7	A.J. Brown	PHI	361	95	26.3%
8	Drake London	ATL	508	133	26.2%
9	Davante Adams	NYJ	484	123	25.4%
10	Amon-Ra St. Brown	DET	520	132	25.4%
11	Dontayvion Wicks	GB	270	68	25.2%
12	Khalil Shakir	BUF	382	95	24.9%
13	Justin Jefferson	MIN	567	141	24.9%
14	Mike Evans	TB	378	93	24.6%
15	Chris Godwin	TB	244	60	24.6%
16	Tee Higgins	CIN	409	100	24.4%
17	Brian Thomas Jr.	JAX	487	118	24.2%
18	Jauan Jennings	SF	417	101	24.2%
19	Garrett Wilson	NYJ	612	147	24.0%
20	Ja’Marr Chase	CIN	659	158	24.0%
21	Zay Flowers	BLT	464	110	23.7%
22	George Pickens	PIT	399	93	23.3%
23	Stefon Diggs	HST	270	62	23.0%
24	Ladd McConkey	LAC	449	103	22.9%
25	Courtland Sutton	DEN	557	125	22.4%
26	Tyreek Hill	MIA	526	118	22.4%
27	Michael Pittman Jr.	IND	439	97	22.1%
28	Keenan Allen	CHI	516	114	22.1%
29	Amari Cooper	BUF	375	82	21.9%
30	DeAndre Hopkins	KC	357	78	21.8%
31	Wan’Dale Robinson	NYG	555	121	21.8%
32	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	SEA	598	129	21.6%
33	DeVonta Smith	PHI	395	84	21.3%
34	Jakobi Meyers	LV	547	116	21.2%
35	Marvin Harrison Jr.	ARZ	510	108	21.2%
36	Olamide Zaccheaus	WAS	271	57	21.0%
37	Adam Thielen	CAR	266	55	20.7%
38	Calvin Ridley	TEN	527	108	20.5%
39	Quentin Johnston	LAC	366	74	20.2%
40	DJ Moore	CHI	635	127	20.0%
41	Terry McLaurin	WAS	517	103	19.9%
42	D.K. Metcalf	SEA	522	103	19.7%
43	Jayden Reed	GB	370	73	19.7%
44	Romeo Doubs	GB	360	70	19.4%
45	Noah Brown	WAS	278	54	19.4%
46	Demario Douglas	NE	415	80	19.3%
47	Jerry Jeudy	CLV	677	129	19.1%
48	Deebo Samuel	SF	420	80	19.0%
48	Xavier Legette	CAR	399	76	19.0%
50	Darnell Mooney	ATL	527	100	19.0%
51	Troy Franklin	DEN	250	47	18.8%
52	Christian Watson	GB	266	50	18.8%
53	Jordan Addison	MIN	464	87	18.8%
54	Jameson Williams	DET	446	81	18.2%
55	Tank Dell	HST	447	81	18.1%
56	Xavier Worthy	KC	515	93	18.1%
57	Devaughn Vele	DEN	296	50	16.9%
58	Jaylen Waddle	MIA	440	74	16.8%
59	Gabe Davis	JAX	252	42	16.7%
60	Elijah Moore	CLV	558	92	16.5%
61	David Moore	CAR	317	52	16.4%
62	Brandin Cooks	DAL	265	43	16.2%
63	Cedric Tillman	CLV	278	45	16.2%
64	Joshua Palmer	LAC	391	63	16.1%
65	Keon Coleman	BUF	292	47	16.1%
66	Calvin Austin III	PIT	346	55	15.9%
67	Rome Odunze	CHI	592	94	15.9%
68	Jalen Coker	CAR	242	38	15.7%
69	Jonathan Mingo	DAL	255	40	15.7%
70	Greg Dortch	ARZ	270	42	15.6%
71	Alec Pierce	IND	413	64	15.5%
72	Sterling Shepard	TB	316	47	14.9%
73	Lil’Jordan Humphrey	DEN	278	41	14.7%
74	Jalen McMillan	TB	353	52	14.7%
75	Allen Lazard	NYJ	387	57	14.7%
76	Ray-Ray McCloud III	ATL	507	74	14.6%
77	Rashod Bateman	BLT	417	60	14.4%
78	Ricky Pearsall	SF	262	37	14.1%
79	Dyami Brown	WAS	243	34	14.0%
80	Michael Wilson	ARZ	501	70	14.0%
81	Kayshon Boutte	NE	439	60	13.7%
82	Darius Slayton	NYG	506	69	13.6%
83	Parker Washington	JAX	348	47	13.5%
84	Tim Patrick	DET	321	43	13.4%
85	Marquez Valdes-Scantling	NO	252	33	13.1%
86	Tyler Boyd	TEN	429	56	13.1%
87	Jalen Tolbert	DAL	530	68	12.8%
88	Kendrick Bourne	NE	275	35	12.7%
89	Tyler Lockett	SEA	529	66	12.5%
90	Ja’Lynn Polk	NE	252	31	12.3%
91	Tre Tucker	LV	611	74	12.1%
92	Nick Westbrook-Ikhine	TEN	405	49	12.1%
93	Mack Hollins	BUF	378	44	11.6%
94	Demarcus Robinson	LA	468	54	11.5%
95	Andrei Iosivas	CIN	528	56	10.6%
96	Jalen Nailor	MIN	362	38	10.5%
97	Van Jefferson	PIT	357	36	10.1%
98	Mike Williams	PIT	328	33	10.1%
99	Xavier Hutchinson	HST	245	22	9.0%
100	Justin Watson	KC	376	29	7.7%
101	Jahan Dotson	PHI	362	21	5.8%

Min. 250 routes. 

 

from Fantasy Footballers Podcast https://ift.tt/OWdbqrZ