Happy Football Season!
If you are new to this column, the goal here is to look for playing time trends to help with waiver wire transactions, start/sit decisions, etc. I do not analyze every team in the written post, but instead, I focus on notable playing times or playing time changes that I saw from looking at snap percentages and watching the games.
Typically, I ignore playing time that more or less corresponds to the team’s official depth chart. (For example, in Week 1, the New Orleans Saints’ playing time almost perfectly corresponded with the depth chart.) Also, while some depth charts are complete nonsense (e.g., veterans at the top; rookies at the bottom, no matter what), I sometimes apply public perception or the “assumed” depth chart.
Usually, the Week 1 column is a bit longer and more in-depth because this is our first week with real data, so strap in for this one. After the first few weeks, a lot of teams fall into predictable patterns, and I do not tend to write about the predictable playing time patterns. As such, injuries play a big role in how this column develops over the year.
Still, this exercise is really beneficial. In my first year writing this post, we were able to identify Justin Jefferson a few weeks before he really broke out. Hopefully, we can continue the streak of providing good advice and identifying important trends.
With all those Week 1 disclaimers, let’s get into it!
Los Angeles Chargers
Ladd McConkey (85%); Quentin Johnston (82%); Keenan Allen (62%)
Quentin Johnston was on the field quite a bit more than Keenan Allen, but Allen saw three more targets. Johnston ended the game with more yards, which makes sense given the respective roles. These roles feel pretty set to me.
You can forget about those late-round Chargers fliers (KeAndre Lambert-Smith, Tre Harris), as both players barely played and impacted the game. Neither player looks ready to play much without injury. The passing offense appears split but concentrated, making the top-3 Charger receivers interesting but lower ceiling plays.
Conclusion: Keenan Allen and Quentin Johnston both have a role worth rostering. You can drop KeAndre Lambert-Smith and Tre Harris if you took a flier.
Kansas City Chiefs
Isiah Pacheco (51%); Kareem Hunt (38%)
There were some rumors coming out of camp suggesting that Pacheco looked ready to resume his workhorse load he was given before breaking his leg in 2024. In the first game, that was not the case. Pacheco had a decent lead in snaps, but both RBs received identical usage (5 carries each, 3 targets each). Neither was exciting, as both backs failed to score and tallied fewer than 30 total yards. Pacheco does not look quite like the same player before the injury last year. This does not bode well for the Chiefs’ backfield, as there does not appear to be anyone exciting.
Conclusion: Hold Pacheco and Hunt for now, but Week 1 looked a lot like the end of 2024.
Buffalo Bills
Keon Coleman 88%; Khalil Shakir 71%
Speaking of training camp rumors, there was a lot of positive buzz about Keon Coleman this offseason. Unlike Pacheco, these rumors look to be true after Week 1. Coleman playing more snaps than Shakir is fantastic news, and he converted the snaps into a boatload of targets (11), a boatload of yards (112), and a TD. A big, playmaking WR tied to Josh Allen is extremely exciting.
Last season, it did not appear that the Bills trusted Coleman. They acquired Amari Cooper, played Shakir a bunch, and relied heavily on the run game. The tide appears to have turned, and Coleman’s playing time is the biggest indicator in my opinion, especially since he basically never came off the field.
Now, this game was a shootout, so his statistics may be a bit inflated by the Bills’ desperate comeback. Indeed, the majority of his targets (7) came in the fourth quarter. But let’s not pooh-pooh that effort. The Ravens’ secondary is outstanding, with probably the best safety in the game, and the Ravens were scheming to protect the lead and prevent the pass. When the team needed Keon, against a stronger opponent, he came through. That’s a breakout. Against weaker opposition, he may perform even better and earlier in games.
Coleman has all the traits to be an alpha receiver in the vein of Nico Collins, and he’s tied to a great QB on an exciting offense.
Conclusion: Keon Coleman should creep into the WR1 conversation.
Indianapolis Colts
Jonathan Taylor 71%; DJ Giddens 25%; Josh Downs 49%; Tyler Warren 73%
If you are panicking because DJ Giddens received 12 carries in Week 1, don’t be. This game was a lop-sided affair from the beginning, and Giddens received mostly clean-up work when the game was clearly in hand. Indeed, all of his opportunities were in the 3rd quarter or later, when the score was at least 23-0. Giddens is not a threat to Jonathan Taylor‘s workload in competitive games.
The uncompetitive nature of this game may have also impacted Josh Downs‘ playing time, too, but I think the story of this game is that Downs has been clearly usurped by Tyler Warren. Warren played far more and made a much bigger statistical impact (9/7/76). Even when the game was a relatively neutral script, the offense was running through Warren, Pittman, and Taylor. Downs basically had no impact on a game against a weak opponent. That does not bode well, especially tied to Daniel Jones at QB.
Conclusion: Jonathan Taylor is fine; Josh Downs is likely the offensive option four after Pittman, Taylor, and Warren.
Denver Broncos
RJ Harvey 29%; J.K. Dobbins 53%
Here we go again. It happens every year. Some coach feels obligated to play a lumbering veteran far more than an exciting rookie to start the year, but here we are.
You barely need a set of eyeballs to see that RJ Harvey is the far more explosive Broncos RB. Harvey only received six total carries, but he took one of those 6 for 50 yards in the fourth quarter. His total for the game was 70 yards, which feels a lot like De’Von Achane‘s rookie year. Meanwhile, Dobbins got 16 carries and failed to surpass Harvey’s 70. Dobbins also saw more targets inexplicably, but that was likely a result of the playing time discrepancy.
This won’t change immediately. It never does. Even though everyone with a TV set can see who the better player is, coaches keep rolling out the veteran for the first few weeks of the season until the media pressure or something else finally forces them to change. That probably means that Dobbins is usable through at least Week 4 in good matchups.
Conclusion: RJ Harvey looks awesome, but will likely be held back from a bigger workload because of archaic coaching mentality. Hold strong.
Detroit Lions
Isaac Teslaa 4%; Kalif Raymond 66%
It’s the same story in Detroit as in Denver. Isaac Teslaa only saw three snaps, all of which occurred in the red zone. Meanwhile, Kalif Raymond saw a ton of playing time as the Lions’ WR3. “Leaf” was essentially irrelevant despite a game where Jared Goff threw 39 times. Meanwhile, Teslaa made an incredible TD catch on his only target.
ISAAC TESLAA WHAT A CATCH pic.twitter.com/WiE8MBuXJr
— betr (@betr) September 7, 2025
I do not understand the line of thought in using 5’8″ Kalif Raymond primarily as an X receiver when this 6’4″ DUDE is relegated to special teams usage. Especially when Teslaa was awesome in the pre-season.
The tide ought to change soon. Dan Campbell is quicker to turn to rookies than most (he did it really quickly with Jahmyr Gibbs and Sam Laporta; a bit slower with Amon-Ra St. Brown, so hopefully he learned his lesson). The Lions also traded trusted veteran Tim Patrick largely because Teslaa emerged quicker than expected.
I like Teslaa a lot, and I think he could be great in a bigger role. I am betting that it happens sooner rather than later, especially after the Lions traded Tim Patrick. There will still be Kalif Raymond packages, which he has probably earned – he’s a better receiver than he gets credit for. That said, Teslaa is going to force his way onto the field more, and could be a force in the second half.
Conclusion: Keep Isaac Teslaa on your radar.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Travis Etienne 61%; Tank Bigsby 21%
If you drafted Etienne, it looks like you got a steal. His debut was outstanding: 16 for 173 on the ground, including a 71 chunk gain. He even sprinkled in a little bit of passing work, catching three passes. His playing time and opportunities demonstrated a firm grasp on the Jaguars’ backfield. I don’t see this changing. Jacksonville has a new coach who values playmakers (see Travis Hunter trade).
Etienne had a fair share of “no gain” plays, and perhaps Carolina isn’t a very good defense, but the playing time is still very promising. I am not ready to declare Etienne an RB1 or anything, but he certainly deserves to be in a starting lineup.
Conclusion: Immediately, Jacksonville demonstrated that Travis Etienne is the lead back.
New England Patriots
Kayshon Boutte 82%; Demario Douglas 63%; Mack Hollins 56%; Stefon Diggs 41%
Continuing a trend from last year, the Patriots’ WR1 is Kayshon Boutte. He seems to have a decent rapport with Drake Maye as well. From Week 6 last year, he averaged six targets a game and sprinkled in a couple of games over 90 receiving yards. So this 8 for 103 game in Week 1 doesn’t “come out of nowhere,” it is a continuation of last year’s trend. Can his impressive play continue after Stefon Diggs gets healthier? That is yet to be seen, but I am not super optimistic about Diggs. He’s older, already demonstrated signs of decline, and he rushed a comeback from a significant injury.
The biggest worry I have with Boutte is that New England still doesn’t look very good offensively. They acquired a lot of new players over the offseason to get better, and they were banking on a big leap from Drake Maye. Sure, it’s one week, but I did not anticipate this offense only being able to put up 13 points against the Raiders. Perhaps Vegas is good with Pete Carroll taking over as head coach, a coach with a fantastic track record. Either way, I like Boutte as a potential pickup. Either the Patriots’ offense is better than their Week 1 output, or the Raiders are a strong defense that held down a decent offense. So, odds are Boutte is a decent stash.
Conclusion: Kayshon Boutte is worth a waiver claim.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Jaylen Warren 45%; Kenneth Gainwell 54%; Kaleb Johnson 4%
Oh boy, this is not great news. We all expected Kaleb Johnson to have a limited role early in the season, but I did not expect it to be this limited. Plus, how bad is Kaleb Johnson if Kenneth Gainwell is the one taking all his snaps? Plus, Kaleb Johnson is the Steelers’ primary kickoff returner, not typically a role reserved for an RB1…
Jaylen Warren basically played the same role he always does (limited carries, less than 50% snaps). He averaged 45% snaps for all of 2024, so Week 1 followed his expected playing time exactly. But instead of replacing Najee Harris with a fairly highly drafted rookie, the team turned to veteran Kenneth Gainwell.
Keep in mind, this game was close and high-scoring, so Johnson clearly is not an option in neutral or negative game scripts. That’s not a good sign at all. Particularly when Warren and Gainwell did not perform well (Warren 11 for 37; Gainwell 7 for 19). Kaleb was somehow worse, turning his only carry into -2 yards.
I am not ready to abandon ship just yet in redraft, but we might be close.
Conclusion: Kaleb Johnson is not looking like a good draft pick – wait another week, but he might be a drop candidate very soon.
Los Angeles Rams
Kyren Williams 82%; Blake Corum 17%
Don’t ever believe a word Sean McVay says about his RB room. This offseason, he talked about getting Blake Corum more involved to lighten William’s role. And yet, right off the bat, the Rams use Kyren like the workhorse he always has been. This is how it always has been and how it ever will be. Shame on us.
Conclusion: Blake Corum is droppable; Kyren is an RB1
Washington Commanders
Jacory Croskey-Merritt 33%; Austin Ekeler 47%
It was exciting to see “Bill” get the most carries of any RB in Washington. Ekeler, no surprise, outplayed him in the first game, but “Bill” did what he always does when given an opportunity: something exciting (busting off a 47-yard run and scoring a TD). He played as early as the opening drive in the second quarter and saw the goal-line work.
The long run was near the very end of the game, after the game result was sealed (score was 21-6 Commanders), but still, he appears to be involved in a real way. And explosive.
I don’t love the mere 33% usage, but Deebo only saw one carry, so there is less competition there than expected. I think this backfield probably moves a bit more to 50-50 between Merritt and Ekeler, with the biggest cause for concern being the 10+ carries that Jayden Daniels may grab on a weekly basis.
Conclusion: Jacory Croskey-Merritt looks like a real thing.
from Fantasy Footballers Podcast https://ift.tt/AMtGzKZ
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