On to Week 3!
With so many games in the 41-45 window, we have to get creative and identify teams who play fast and are willing to chuck it.
Pace of play gives the prospective DFS player an opportunity to consider not just Vegas totals but how the game will be played out in a given week. Game flow is a tricky rabbit hole to jump down when you consider the endless scenarios that can play out in a game. Stacking up-tempo offenses who can keep the ball moving is crucial to gaining an edge in DFS. Even slight differentiations of team trends matter in a world where volume is king.
In this article, I highlight the top DFS game environments factoring in their pace metrics, stacks to consider for tournaments, and routes for game flows. I try to dip into some matchup-based discussions and then run with certain narratives to give you a lean early in the week of how I could see a game play out.
On Friday’s DFS & Betting Podcast, I talk through these games alongside Betz adding in DFS salaries and roster percentages.
Game Pace Score
A reminder of a simple metric I introduced a couple of years ago: Game Pace Score (GPS). I liked the acronym to also give you a “compass” of how the game total and neutral pace statistics come together. These scores are ranked 1-5 with five indicating the pace of the play is everything you want for a DFS bonanza.
- 5– A back-and-forth shootout is looming. Both teams are pace-up and both sport team implied totals of 25+.
- 4– An up-tempo spot worth game stacking in DFS in multiple ways. Consider multiple game scripts in play.
- 3– This game could go either way. Often, these are onslaught spots for teams with healthy implied totals or games that hit the under because two middling offenses collide.
- 2– Strong indications of a game you want to stay away from. Usually, the pace is dragged down by one team with an absurdly slow neutral pace or a team with a team implied total so low it drags the entire game environment through the mud.
- 1– This has all the makings of a plodder. These games have totals UNDER 40 which gives you zero confidence in DFS.
For Week 3, I’ve sorted by all 32 team implied totals while focusing on seconds per play and pass rate over expectation (PROE), and Expected Points Added per play (EPA) ranks from Weeks 1-2. Keep in mind how small of a sample size we are dealing with. These don’t begin to normalize until 5-6 weeks into the season.
For those that would like a CSV version of the above chart, you can download the Week 3 Pace CSV.
Dallas Cowboys @ Chicago Bears
With the highest total of the week, this game feels more like 2020 DFS when we saw a ridiculous 86 regular season games have an kickoff over/under of 50+. Since then, the games have declined rapidly (53, 26, 13, and only 20 last year) so its nice to see a game bet up in this range. Both teams profile as pace up squads ranking top-6 in seconds per play while the Cowboys rank 4th in plays per game (69.5) and 5th in points per game (30.0) through two weeks. Dallas games have been unbelievably close with 132 of their 139 offensive plays (95%) with the score “neutral” within 7 points. A small sample size says things will shift.
That easiest part of this game to forecast is focusing on the horrendous pass defenses. They rank 32nd (CHI) and 31st (DAL) in fantasy points per drop back when utilizing zone coverage per FantasyPoints Data Suite.
Honestly, I have no idea what Dallas’ game-plan was last week against Malik Nabers and company, especially on some absolute moon shots. Russell Wilson threw 264 “deep passing yards” in Week 2 against the Cowboys defense, the most such yards allowed by any defense in a game since 2016! It felt lazy and the deep ball will be tested again with Chicago’s bevy of WRs.
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