This article is part of the annual Fantasy Court series. Don’t forget to check out “The Case FOR Sam LaPorta” for the opposing view.
Opening Statement
Your honor, let me begin with a disclaimer to avoid personal attacks: I truly believe Sam LaPorta is one of the most talented TEs in the NFL. He might even be the best one. But this is not the real-life football court. This honorable court exists to judge players strictly through the lens of fantasy football.
LaPorta had his breakout as the overall TE1 during his rookie season with a fantastic 86 receptions for 889 yards and ten TDs. But last year told a very different story, and many fantasy managers ended up disappointed by the high price they had to pay for him.
This year, his price tag isn’t as inflated, but I’m still here to convince the jury that there are enough reasons to pass on Sam LaPorta at his TE4 ADP. Allow me to elaborate.
Too many mouths for not so many targets
Detroit’s offense thrived last year mainly because of how unpredictable it was. That was not only due to the creativity of former offensive coordinator Ben Johnson, who is no longer with the team, but also because of the sheer amount of offensive talent surrounding Jared Goff. Too many mouths to feed.
Now, your honor, the defense might argue: “What does it matter if there are so many mouths to feed if there’s volume for everyone?” Well, the Detroit Lions are one of the most prolific offenses in the NFL, but that doesn’t mean they’re among the ones with the highest passing volume. Last year they ranked 18th in total targets, which is not even close to the top, with 519 targets spread across a wide array of pass catchers.
| Player | Targets |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 141 |
| Jameson Williams | 91 |
| Sam LaPorta | 83 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 63 |
| Tim Patrick | 44 |
| David Montgomery | 38 |
| Brock Wright | 16 |
| Craig Reynolds | 5 |
All of these names are still on the roster. Some of them, like Jameson Williams, could demand even more targets this year. And let’s not forget there are new mouths to feed in the Lions’ den, such as rookie WR Isaac TeSlaa, who has been turning heads and led the NFL in receiving TDs during the preseason.
Last Season’s Volatility
Being part of such a crowded offense naturally creates volatility. Even Amon-Ra St. Brown, the top option for Jared Goff, had weeks last season with only two or three targets.
LaPorta flashed late in the season with glimpses of his rookie-year dominance, but between Week 1 and Week 14, he surpassed five targets only once and had eight games with three or fewer targets.
Historically, elite fantasy TEs are the focal point of their passing attack, or at least one of the top two consistent weapons. Travis Kelce for years. Rob Gronkowski with Brady. Mark Andrews in his prime. Today, Brock Bowers, Trey McBride, and George Kittle all find themselves in situations with far less target competition than Sam LaPorta.
And volatility isn’t going away. The Lions’ formula works precisely because they spread the ball across their elite playmakers. Plus, the very offensive coordinator who helped draft LaPorta and designed the plays that fueled his rookie success is now out of town.
Opportunity Cost
When you draft a “onesie” position in the fourth or fifth round, you have to consider what you’re leaving on the table. There’s simply too much talent in those rounds. RBs and WRs who provide the depth your roster actually needs. Spending that capital on a TE should only be done if you’re sure he’ll be a consistent weekly contributor.
| ADP | Name |
| 51 | RJ Harvey |
| 52 | Courtland Sutton |
| 53 | David Montgomery |
| 54 | Sam LaPorta |
| 55 | DeVonta Smith |
| 56 | Isiah Pacheco |
| 57 | Tony Pollard |
| 58 | Xavier Worthy |
| 59 | D’Andre Swift |
| 60 | George Pickens |
Look at the talent surrounding LaPorta’s ADP. If I don’t already have a TE at this point in the draft, I’d much rather secure one of these RBs or WRs and wait for cheaper upside plays at the TE position: guys like Tucker Kraft, David Njoku, or even wait a few more rounds for the Colts’ rookie TE Tyler Warren.
Suspicious “minor, undisclosed” injury
On top of all this, LaPorta has been sidelined this week with a “minor, undisclosed” injury. Head coach Dan Campbell said, “It’s not major, but he will miss a little bit of time”. That sounds scary.
An injury this close to the start of the season is never a good sign, especially when it’s vague and undisclosed. It probably won’t keep him out of games, but it could impact his snaps, volume, and utilization. I sincerely hope Sam LaPorta is fully healthy and ready to dominate. But at his price? I can tell you he won’t be on my roster, your honor.
Closing Argument
Fantasy football is a game of calculated risks and making bets on players to find upside. Some will argue Sam LaPorta is a good bet at his current price, considering what we’ve seen him do in the past, saying he seems cheap for a potential overall TE1.
But the evidence suggests otherwise. His ADP might be fair because, yes, he could finish as the TE4. But the path to that finish is filled with volatility that could wreck the season of many fantasy managers.
The prosecution rests.
from Fantasy Footballers Podcast https://ift.tt/z6Fih2p
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