Too often, we overlook valuable data from the previous season that could give us a real edge in fantasy drafts. One of the most important tools to utilize and exploit during draft season is ADP; yet, once the games begin, we tend to forget where players were actually drafted and focus only on how they finish.
It is often said that we do not dislike players; we dislike their draft cost. By comparing a player’s draft position to their end-of-season finish, we can uncover meaningful insights about their true value. Looking back at ADP versus actual production helps us evaluate whether players lived up to their draft-day price or fell short.
In this article, we will analyze where the top WRs were drafted in 2024 and where they finished, as well as which top finishers were draft-day bargains. The goal is to identify trends and actionable takeaways you can use to gain an edge in your 2025 fantasy drafts.
Check out the first two articles from this series, featuring QBs and RBs.
Note: All statistics used are half-PPR scoring per the Ballers’ Consistency Charts found at JointheFoot.com. All ADP data is sourced from Sleeper.
Top-12 Drafted WRs in 2024:
| Player | 2024 Draft Position | 2024 Finish | 2023 Finish |
| Tyreek Hill | WR1 | WR20 | WR2 |
| CeeDee Lamb | WR2 | WR5 | WR1 |
| Justin Jefferson | WR3 | WR2 | WR38 |
| Ja’Marr Chase | WR4 | WR1 | WR10 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | WR5 | WR3 | WR3 |
| AJ Brown | WR6 | WR14 | WR5 |
| Garrett Wilson | WR7 | WR10 | WR30 |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. | WR8 | WR32 | N/A |
| Puka Nacua | WR9 | WR23 | WR6 |
| Drake London | WR10 | WR9 | WR40 |
| Davante Adams | WR11 | WR16 | WR13 |
| Chris Olave | WR12 | WR92 | WR21 |
Looking back at the top WRs drafted in 2024, it was difficult to foresee the puzzling collapse of Tyreek Hill and the entire Miami offense. After finishing as the WR2 the year prior, Hill plummeted to WR20, hampered by a lingering wrist injury and inconsistent QB play tied to Tua Tagovailoa’s concussion issues. There were plenty of factors to blame, but the bottom line is simple: Hill was one of the biggest busts in fantasy football.
Fortunately, the next four picks fared better. Ja’Marr Chase proved his doubters wrong after concerns about a potential contract holdout caused some to hesitate. Those who took the leap were rewarded with a historic season. AJ Brown and Puka Nacua delivered when healthy but both missed significant time, limiting their ceilings. Garrett Wilson, meanwhile, landed right around his ADP, but week-to-week inconsistency in a dysfunctional Jets offense made him a frustrating player to roster despite the respectable season-end numbers.
Drafters hoping for a breakout from the next wave of receivers, including Marvin Harrison Jr., Chris Olave, and Drake London had mixed results. London lived up to his rising draft stock, emerging as the clear winner of the group with an impressive second-year breakout. But Harrison Jr. and Olave were massive disappointments, finishing nowhere near their ADPs.
So what are the takeaways? Even the most elite options, like Hill, are not fully immune to unexpected setbacks. And while it is tempting to chase upside by paying a premium for young receivers, it does not always work out. Harrison Jr. made history as the highest-drafted rookie WR in fantasy football, but he failed to live up to the hype. Meanwhile, several other rookies broke out at a fraction of the cost, delivering far more value without the premium price tag. Next time a rookie WR is being drafted in the first two rounds, it may be wiser to pass and instead target high-upside candidates later in the draft, where the risk is lower and the payoff can be even greater.
Top-12 WR Fantasy Finishes in 2024 (Weeks 1-17):
| Player | 2024 Finish | 2024 Draft Position | 2023 Finish |
| Ja’Marr Chase | WR1 | WR4 | WR10 |
| Justin Jefferson | WR2 | WR3 | WR38 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | WR3 | WR5 | WR3 |
| Brian Thomas Jr. | WR4 | WR47 | N/A |
| CeeDee Lamb | WR5 | WR2 | WR1 |
| Terry McLaurin | WR6 | WR32 | WR31 |
| Malik Nabers | WR7 | WR22 | N/A |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR8 | WR46 | WR47 |
| Drake London | WR9 | WR10 | WR40 |
| Garrett Wilson | WR10 | WR7 | WR30 |
| Mike Evans | WR11 | WR15 | WR4 |
| Jerry Jeudy | WR12 | WR57 | WR54 |
Moving on to the top-12 WR fantasy finishes last season, the first three names come as no surprise. Ja’Marr Chase, Justin Jefferson, and Amon-Ra St. Brown are considered fantasy royalty at this point, with high odds of delivering on their draft costs barring injury. CeeDee Lamb joins the three in this distinction, rounding out the top five, but before him was Brian Thomas Jr., who broke out in a huge way in his rookie season, finishing as the WR4. Thomas Jr. and Malik Nabers both managed to crack the top seven in fantasy scoring at the position in their rookie years, highlighting that it is possible for rookie WRs to be elite assets immediately, despite Marvin Harrison Jr.’s disappointing finish.
When looking at the other names on the list, a clear trend can be identified. Several WRs who have flashed elite talent but have been held back by unfortunate circumstances throughout their careers delivered on their potential and put up elite numbers. This group included Terry McLaurin, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and Jerry Jeudy.
McLaurin has always been a valuable fantasy asset since his rookie season, but due to poor QB play, he had only cracked the top 20 once in his five-year career and had never finished as a WR1. He changed that trend in a big way last year, finishing as the WR6 and setting a career high with 13 TDs. While he set a career high in receiving yards as well, it was right on par with the numbers he had been putting up in other seasons, and he actually did it on fewer targets than he had received in each of the last four years. The main reason for this newfound success was the emergence of superstar rookie QB Jayden Daniels, who put together a historic season and greatly elevated the fantasy upside for McLaurin and the rest of Washington’s offense.
Smith-Njigba, on the other hand, had a major bounce-back season after a disaster of a rookie year. The team made a change in coaching and offensive system that could have led to the breakout. Jeudy’s season was a bit of an enigma. He started off slow but finished the year on fire, particularly when Jameis Winston was under center. It will be telling to see how Jeudy responds to last year’s breakout, as he is being drafted well outside of his fantasy finish, hinting that most do not currently believe the breakout is sustainable.
So what can we take away from all of this?
- When an unheralded yet talented player sees an upgrade at QB or offensive system heading into a season, their fantasy outlook deserves serious reevaluation. A player who stands out in that way this season is Calvin Ridley, if rookie Cam Ward can have an instant impact like Daniels had.
- For players who could experience a second-year breakout after a quiet rookie season, Marvin Harrison Jr. and Rome Odunze stand out as strong candidates. Odunze fits the profile of a talented rookie who was held back by a flawed offensive system, which is expected to improve significantly this year.
- The WR position is especially deep, and there is plenty of value to be found later in drafts. Of last year’s top-12 WR finishes, only half were drafted to finish in that range. Four of the other six were taken outside the top 30 at the position.
In your upcoming fantasy drafts, look for players who are currently being overlooked and could easily exceed their draft capital, just like these examples did last year.
Top-12 Drafted WRs in 2025 (Current Sleeper ADP):
| Player | 2025 Draft Position | 2024 Finish | 2024 Draft Position |
| Ja’Marr Chase | WR1 | WR1 | WR4 |
| Justin Jefferson | WR2 | WR2 | WR3 |
| CeeDee Lamb | WR3 | WR5 | WR2 |
| Puka Nacua | WR4 | WR23 | WR9 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | WR5 | WR3 | WR5 |
| Malik Nabers | WR6 | WR7 | WR22 |
| Nico Collins | WR7 | WR14 | WR26 |
| Brian Thomas Jr. | WR8 | WR4 | WR47 |
| Drake London | WR9 | WR9 | WR10 |
| AJ Brown | WR10 | WR14 | WR6 |
| Ladd McConkey | WR11 | WR13 | WR44 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR12 | WR8 | WR46 |
Now that we have reviewed and analyzed last season’s ADP compared to actual finishes, we can apply those trends to 2025 fantasy drafts. While ADP will continue to shift over the next month, we already have a solid sense of where WRs will be selected.
Unlike many seasons, there is a clear-cut consensus name at the top of fantasy drafts this year at the position. Ja’Marr Chase is the unanimous WR1 across every major platform. After capturing the rare triple crown and finishing as the overall WR1 last season, Chase has rightfully ascended into a tier of his own. The ADP Platform Comparison tool in the UDK helps you see exactly where these top options are being drafted across different platforms, making it easier to spot value picks and gain a strategic edge in your specific league.
We have seen top receivers fall short of expectations before. Tyreek Hill, for example, dropped all the way to WR20 in 2024 despite being the first wideout off the board. Due to his disappointing season last year, Hill is now being drafted in the third round as the WR13. But Chase looks far more stable, entering 2025 in the prime of his career, paired with an elite QB in Joe Burrow, which is an enviable combination for any fantasy manager. Still, it is worth remembering that Chase’s finish as the overall fantasy points leader, even outscoring every RB, is a major outlier.
Justin Jefferson, the WR2 last season, actually scored fewer points than RB5 Josh Jacobs and barely edged out Kyren Williams. While NFL backfields are trending toward committee usage, elite RBs still tend to outproduce elite WRs. Last year, the top five RBs averaged 18.52 fantasy points per game, compared to 16.78 for the top five WRs. That trend held through the top 12 at each position, where RBs again had a slight edge.
| Season | Fantasy Finish | RB PPG | WR PPG |
| 2024 | 1-5 | 18.52 | 16.78 |
| 2024 | 1-12 | 16.98 | 15.48 |
| 2024 | 13-24 | 13.02 | 12.68 |
| 2024 | 25-36 | 9.79 | 11.03 |
However, the gap narrows as you move down the board. In the WR13–24 and RB13–24 range, scoring was nearly identical. From WR25–36, WRs actually outperformed their RB counterparts. This shift highlights the depth of the WR pool and the value that can be had later in drafts. There are simply more usable wideouts than there are reliable backs.
One of the primary reasons many drafters lean WR in Round 1 is the perceived safety at the position. But that perception may be overstated. Looking at the top 12 drafted players at each position from last year, excluding Week 18, seven of the 12 WRs played a full fantasy season. For RBs, six out of 12 met that mark. The difference in average games played was marginal: 14.33 for WRs, 13.75 for RBs. So while WRs may feel safer in the first round, the durability gap between the positions might not be as significant as it is often made out to be.
Despite finishing as WR1s in 2024, Terry McLaurin (WR6), Garrett Wilson (WR10), Mike Evans (WR11), and Jerry Jeudy (WR12) are all being drafted outside the top 12 at the position in 2025. While McLaurin, Wilson, and Evans are still going shortly after WR1 range, Jeudy has fallen all the way to WR34 and a late sixth-round ADP. If Joe Flacco is named the starter, Jeudy’s value should climb, but likely not enough to erase his current discount. Beyond that, the top 12 WRs in drafts look fairly chalky, featuring a mix of last year’s elite finishers and star talents coming off injury-plagued seasons.
After being drafted as the WR8 as a rookie last year, Marvin Harrison Jr. is now going off the board as the WR18 at the end of the third round. He stands out as a potential bounce-back candidate and now does not carry the premium price tag he held as a rookie. He will look to outperform his ADP and join fellow second-year receivers like Malik Nabers, Brian Thomas Jr., and Ladd McConkey, all of whom are being drafted as WR1s in 2025. While this year’s rookie WR class does not carry the same hype, there is a clear sense of buyer’s remorse after how early Harrison Jr. went in 2024.
In 2025, the first rookie WRs off the board, Tetairoa McMillan and Travis Hunter, are not being drafted until the sixth round. That could change with strong preseason showings, but for now, both profile as potential draft-day steals. Unlike RBs, WR value can still be found deep into the double-digit rounds, where hidden gems often emerge and make the leap into elite fantasy relevance. It is up to you to spot the trends and take calculated swings on the ones poised to break out.
from Fantasy Footballers Podcast https://ift.tt/JLYzIhA
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