2024 was an interesting year for RBs, as it looked like a ‘Veterans-Only” club in the top-12. Saquon finally gets a good offensive line and leads in half-PPR points among RBs while some of the usual suspects make their expected appearances, like Derrick Henry and Bijan Robinson. Chase Brown believers benefited from his 2024 performance as he wrapped up the back end of the top 12.
With the first full preseason weekend in the books, the Ballers count down their top-ranked half-PPR RBs, beginning with RBs 20-11.
To hear the Ballers’ complete breakdown of RBs 20-11, head here to watch the episode on YouTube!
A reminder that Andy, Mike, and Jason are now back to shows FIVE days a week until the end of the season, so make sure to find The Fantasy Footballers Podcast on all of your devices.
For a deeper dive into the RB rankings, check out the UDK, and a reminder that The Ballers update their rankings daily, so check the most up-to-date rankings here.
What Makes a Top-20 Fantasy RB?
The Ballers initiate the discussion on RBs 11-20 by establishing a foundation of elements that make a top-20 fantasy RB. Over the last four years, 70% of top-20 RBs averaged 18 opportunities per game, 75% had 9+ total TDs, and the teams these RBs were on were winning teams that averaged 9.4 wins. Andy made a point that it is better to have RBs on teams that consistently move the chains, thus creating more 1st and 2nd down opportunities for RBs.
When going through these rankings, it is important to consider each RB’s workload (opportunities, red zone work, and pass-catching) and their team’s projected wins to project floor vs. ceiling outcomes.
20. Joe Mixon (HOU)
Andy: 20/Mike: 21/Jason: 23
Sleeper ADP: RB19 / 5.02
Mixon had an RB11 finish last season with 15.9 points per game. The Ballers’ current ranking hedges against the present training camp injury issues. Nonetheless, Mixon still checks all three of the boxes that we need for a good finish: workload, TDs, and a winning team (Vegas projected win total: 9.4). Mixon had the 4th-most red zone opportunities while he was on a 13.4 rushing TD pace. He had the hottest of starts last season, averaging 23.3 FFPG in the first 11 weeks, accounting for seven of his eight RB1 finishes during that span.
There are some legitimate concerns with Mixon going into 2025. First, he’s approaching the typical age cliff (30 years old), and while Jason has reservations, Andy brought up examples of other elder statesmen we have confidence in, like Derrick Henry (31), Saquon Barkley (28), and Christian McCaffrey (29). His performance was heavily predicated on his workload, but his efficiency metrics (min, 100 attempts) in percentage of carries stuffed at the line (39th), forced missed tackle rate (38th), and success rate on Zone runs (41st) could be of some concern. Add to this Andy’s concern about the offensive line, which is ranked 29th per PFF, and Houston, we have a problem.
First Four Matchups: @LAR/TB/@JAX/TEN – SOS 11th
19. Kenneth Walker III (SEA)
Andy: 25/Mike: 16/Jason: 20
Sleeper ADP: 4.08
At almost 25 years young, Walker finished 28th in 2024 with 14.4 PPG in 11 games. Mike is disgusted with Andy’s ranking, but Andy expects Walker to be who he has been: an RB who doesn’t play a complete season. He played 15 games in each of 2022 and 2023, but only played 11 games last season. Andy did concede that Walker has top-12 breakout upside.
Kenneth Walker will operate under new OC Klint Kubiak in 2025, who will try to improve on the 30th-ranked offensive line. Behind this line, Walker had a conflicting combination of inefficiency issues and great tackle-breaking frequency behind the line of scrimmage. Walker was number one in missed tackles forced rate, which speaks to his upside with better offensive line play. Kubiak brings a fullback with his scheme, giving a healthy Kenneth Walker a lot of potential upside. Even so, Charbonnet is a worthwhile late selection if Walker misses time.
First Four Matchups: SF/@PIT/NO/@ARI – SOS 6th
18. Breece Hall (NYJ)
Andy: 22/Mike: 17/Jason: 16
Sleeper ADP: 3.08
Breece Hall generated 13.3 FFPG in 16 games for the Jets last season. This came on 876 rushing yards, 57 receptions, and 5 TDs. He had the 3rd-most targets among RBs and 80% of the Jets’ rushing attempts inside the 5-yard line. This sounds awesome, but unfortunately, the Jets were dead last in the 5-zone rush attempts for a second straight year.
Currently going as RB13, Breece Hall is being drafted way ahead of the Ballers’ collective ranking. Jason raised the point that mobile rushing QBs are bad for pass-catching RBs. This could negatively impact Breece, who is expected to have a larger passing game role. However, Fields is somewhat of an outlier there with a history of targeting RBs in the passing game. Mike, despite not liking the draft price, made the point that if the Jets are consistently down early, it lends itself to more passing and potentially more targets for Hall. Jason believes in Hall’s explosiveness and his youth (24), but there were concerns about the workload. While there is potential upside, Andy highlighted the consecutive seasons of declining performance, so is this the year he turns it around? On the Jets? We’ll have to see.
First Four Matchups: PIT/BUF/@TB/@MIA – SOS 21st
17. Chuba Hubbard (CAR)
Andy: 16/Mike: 20/Jason: 14
Sleeper ADP: 4.10
The “unsexiest” pick, Chuba Hubbard, appears to have maintained his form as evidenced by his preseason performance. Hubbard averaged 14.7 FPPG and finished RB13 in 15 games played. Slice his performances from weeks 3-16, Chuba was the RB7, averaging 17 FPPG. Ranked 7th in weighted opportunities with 10 rushing TDs in 2024, he certainly checks the workload and TD boxes.
The only marker left is team wins, and the Baller’s believe in the possibility. Jason noted a historically bad defense, which has been purged, and the rebuild of the unit has begun the right way. If Bryce Young also takes an additional step forward from where he left off last season, they could check the “winning team” box. There is the element of Rico Dowdle and the glimpse of workload share from the preseason game, but Hubbard’s contract speaks to his RB1 status for Carolina.
First Four Matchups: @JAX/@ARI/ATL/@NE – SOS 5th
16. James Cook (BUF)
Andy: 17/Mike: 15/Jason: 15
Sleeper ADP: 3.10
James Cook rewarded Mike’s faith in him for 2024 with an RB8 finish. He was hyper-efficient, garnering 1007 rushing yards on 207 carries and 16 TDs for 15.7 FPPG. When you consider 43% of his points came from TDs, a notoriously unsticky metric, it could make one think twice. Jason acknowledged this fact and refocused on Cook’s utilization within a very good offense. Unfortunately, his utilization doesn’t allow him to check the “workload” box.
Assuming the contract dispute and “hold in” situation end in time, the Ballers are expecting a similar workload, but with an obvious TD regression. Jason maintains the highest projection in total TDs for Cook with 10. Drafting Cook presents an interesting decision point. On one hand, there are the checkboxes where he is only checking one of three, which is obviously the offense. On the other hand, Cook’s workload is on a downward trajectory, and TDs are expected to regress significantly. Even still, he has been a top-12 RB each of the last two seasons with similar circumstances. Does he do it again? Andy acknowledged the possibility of a top-10 finish. Jason is comfortable with where Cook is going now versus where he was going in early drafts for 2025. I have been a fan of Cook’s rushing ability since he came out, and he could very well finish in the top-12 yet again despite the time-share situation.
First Four Matchups: BAL/@NYJ/MIA/NO – SOS 19th
15. Omarion Hampton (LAC)
Andy: 10/Mike: 19/Jason: 18
Sleeper ADP: 4.03
Hampton did not play in the week one preseason game at all, which cements his status as the lead RB, especially with Najee Harris’ status up in the air for week one. Mike is planning to move him up the board, considering the possibility that Najee may miss time. Andy reminds us that many rookie RBs frequently finish in the top ten. Jason is confident in the offense, especially with Keenan Allen back to help move the chains.
Hampton is moving into a situation where all the boxes are checked. Najee’s cloudy situation opens up the workload, especially given Hampton’s 3-down skillset. The offense is good and can reliably move the chains, which should translate to plenty of TD opportunities. While there was the sad news of a potential career-altering injury to Rashawn Slater, there are a lot of players who can ensure some level of offensive success. The Ballers were all expecting an eventual chokehold on the Chargers’ RB1 spot by the end of the season, but it appears Hampton will get an earlier start in that endeavor.
First Four Matchups: KC/@LV/DEN/@NYG – SOS 25th
14. James Conner (ARI)
Andy: 14/Mike: 13/Jason: 17
Sleeper ADP: 5.03
At 30, Conner comes in as one of the better values, per the Value Scout tool, with an ADP of 20. As the engine behind the Cardinals’ offense, Conner improved his yards after contact rate from 2023 and was second in missed tackles forced. Conner did benefit from the 3rd best yards before contact in 2024, and this is something we could expect to persist into 2025. I found it interesting that PFF had Conner 7th in elusive rating (min 80 att), 6th in yards per route run (YRR) while earning 53 targets, and 3rd in explosive runs. Elusiveness and YRR were not on my bingo card of 2024 James Conner accolades, but here we are.
Jason projects Trey Benson to eat into Conner’s workload, but not enough to where the Cardinals’ backfield becomes a 1A/1B scenario. However, Benson’s role is expected to increase to at least the “two” in this “one/two” combo. Andy noted some impressive play by Benson in the preseason so far, and given Conner’s injury history, Benson is a prudent late-round target.
First Four Matchups: @NO/CAR/@SF/SEA – SOS 1st
13. Alvin Kamara (NO)
Andy: 15/Mike: 14/Jason: 13
Sleeper ADP: 4.07
Kamara is a machine, earning his highest FPPG since 2020 in 2024. Mike thinks Kamara is the ‘unsexiest’ pick this season, but he anticipates the poor offense will result in high target volume for him. Kamara already led the league in RB target share at 20%, and he also earned 16% of the Saints’ first-read targets in 2024. Jason called Kamara “the best pass-catching guarantee,” and that is likely to remain the case in 2025.
Kendre Miller was mentioned, but his 2.5 yards per carry in the preseason game indicate he is less of a near-term threat than we may have thought. Kamara is far and away the best RB option on the Saints’ roster, and he is still very good at football. It will be hard to watch, but as Mike suggests, just don’t watch it and know that there will be about six targets/per game going to the RB. Whichever QB prevails, they will be dependent on dumpoffs to Kamara, and we get to profit. Kellen Moore’s offense will play fast, with neutral situation pace rankings of 1st, 1st, 2nd, 4th, 4th, and 8th since he began as an OC. This could amplify the short passing game volume, benefiting Alvin Kamara.
First Four Matchups: ARI/SF/@SEA/@BUF – SOS 4th
12. Jonathan Taylor (IND)
Andy: 11/Mike: 12/Jason: 9
Sleeper ADP: 2.11
At still just 26 years old, Jonathan Taylor had a 320 carry pace with three games missed. During the last three games, JT made history when he was on a top-5 all-time pace for carries in the last three games of a season, finishing as RB1, RB1, and RB4. JT hasn’t played a full season in three straight years, but he has explosive potential. Jason believes in his elite talent; he’s getting the workload and should be able to get the TDs. If he plays a full season, Jason believes in a top-four upside and an RB14 floor.
The biggest question is the influence of Anthony Richardson or Daniel Jones on the offense. As stated earlier, moving the chains is critical for a reliable volume of RB opportunities. It is also becoming harder to lean on pass-catching opportunities with both his targets and targets per route run trending steadily down since his rookie season. Perhaps the Colts, knowing they need to insulate their QB, will utilize him like they did to close out 2024.
First Four Matchups: MIA/DEN/@TEN/@LAR – SOS 15th
11. Kyren Williams (LAR)
Andy: 13/Mike: 10/Jason: 10
Sleeper ADP: 3.02
Kyren was a red zone dominator in 2023 and has been the RB6 for two straight seasons. The Ballers discussed the impact of Stafford’s status, and if Stafford is out, it is bad for the whole offense. This very real fact is Jason’s biggest hesitation in drafting any Rams. Kyren is checking all three boxes with workload, TDs (4th in 5-Zone attempts, 3rd in 5-Zone TDs), and a winning team with a good coach in Sean McVay.
Last season, the Rams had a difficult RB schedule, but in 2025, it’s a very easy schedule. While this is an attractive situation, it all comes down to Stafford’s status. When Andy posed the question of JT vs. Kyren to Jason, the three checkboxes for Kyren weighted his decision, banking on Stafford’s toughness. Jason is less worried about the RBs behind Kyren, like Blake Corum and Jarquez Hunter, despite the Twitter noise. Kyren’s position is solidified given his recent contract, so nothing of concern there.
First Four Matchups: HOU/@TEN/@PHI/IND – SOS 26th
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