2024 was the year of the dual-threat QB payoff. Four of the top five QBs rushed for 500 yards, while five of the top 10 threw for at least 35 TDs. Jayden Daniels and Bo Nix proved rookies are worth the risk as each finished in the Top 10 fantasy PPG, and Lamar Jackson delivered one of the most consistent QB seasons of all time. Meanwhile, Baker Mayfield, Joe Burrow, and Jared Goff reminded us that pure pocket passers still matter when the volume and TDs happen.
With elite ceilings available at every draft tier, the Ballers are here to sort signal-calling buzz from draft-day traps. Let’s break down the top 10 QBs for 2025.
A reminder that Andy, Mike, and Jason are now back to shows FIVE days a week until the end of the season, so make sure to find The Fantasy Footballers Podcast on all of your devices.
For a deeper dive into the TE rankings, check out the UDK.
10. Baker Mayfield (TB)
Andy: 6 / Jason: 13 / Mike: 14
Sleeper ADP: 7.02 (QB7)
Baker left his tendency for mediocrity in the dust and exploded with 4,500 yards, 41 TDs, and a 71.4% completion rate, becoming just the third QB in NFL history to join the 4,500/40/70% club. Mayfield’s fantasy ceiling was unlocked from a hyper-efficient system, quick throws (2.70 seconds average to throw), and a whopping 967 yards behind the line of scrimmage – the most in the NFL and second-most in Next Gen Stats history.
Still, there remains concern. Baker fumbled 12 times, and with a new OC in Josh Grizzard, the playbook needs to carry the improvements into this year.
First Four Matchups: @ATL, @HOU, NYJ, PHI.
9. Dak Prescott (DAL)
Andy: 7 / Jason: 10 / Mike: 9
Sleeper ADP: 11.01 (QB14)
Dak entered 2024 coming off a QB3 finish, but a midseason injury limited him to just eight games. In that stretch, he still put up 1,978 passing yards and 11 TDs. He was averaging 37 pass attempts per game and keeping Dallas among the league’s fastest-paced offenses. The Cowboys ranked 7th in red zone plays and 5th in plays & points per game when Dak was under center.
The UDK projects 4,424 yards and 31 TDs if he returns to form. He’s not running like he used to, but he doesn’t need to if the volume stays at this caliber. AT QB14, he’s the best play in the double-digit rounds.
First Four Matchups: @PHI, NYG, @CHI, GB
8. Kyler Murray (AZ)
Andy: 8 / Jason: 8 / Mike: 10
Sleeper ADP: 8.11 (QB9)
Only two other QBs have more top-10 fantasy finishes than Kyler since he entered the league: Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes. In 2024, he ran for 572 yards and five TDs, averaging 4.6 rush attempts per game. He posted 21 fantasy points per game in contests where he topped 20 rushing yards. As a passer, he averaged 8.9 yards per attempt and completed 70% of his play-action throws, thriving in the intermediate area of the field.
The Cardinals were #1 in TE market share (34%) but dead last in WR share (48%). Better WR chemistry could add more ceiling games, but the running trend gives Murray more upside than in previous years.
First Six Matchups: @NO, CAR, @SF, SEA, TEN, @IND
*Favored in five of their 1st six games.
Kyler Murray reached a top speed of 21.27 mph on his 50-yard TD run, the fastest speed by a quarterback as a ball carrier over the last 8 seasons.#AZvsSF | @AZCardinals pic.twitter.com/K9vTkOKURA
— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) October 6, 2024
7. Patrick Mahomes (KC)
Andy: 10 / Jason: 7 / Mike: 8
Sleeper ADP: 6.04 (QB6)
Mahomes turned in his lowest fantasy finish as a full-time starter in 2024 as QB11. The Chiefs’ excellent defense muted the offense, averaging just 44.7 total points per game over the last two seasons. That’s down nearly a TD from his 2018 – 2022 stretch of 51.3 per game. Just 4.3% of KC’s plays went for 20+ yards (27th in the NFL), and Patty posted career lows in passing yards, YPA, and TD rate.
The bright side: He led the league in red zone TD rate, with a massive 85% of his TDs coming inside the 20. He’s still elite in real life, but the QB6 price tag may be due to name, not production.
First Four Matchups: @LAC, PHI, @NYG, BAL
6. Bo Nix (DEN)
Andy: 11 / Jason: 6 / Mike: 7
Sleeper ADP: 7.11 (QB 8)
Bo Nix shattered expectations by throwing the second-most TDs as a rookie in NFL history. From Week 5 on, he was the QB6, averaging 21.9 fantasy points per game, thanks to elite play-action efficiency, a league-best 71% completion rate inside the 10-yard line, and the most passing yards outside the pocket in the NFL. He also chipped in with his legs, ranking 9th among QBs in rushing fantasy points per game (3.9).
The bad: 60% of his throws came within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage, and he had the 4th-highest check-down rate in the league. The floor is safe, but he’ll need to take more chances downfield to improve in 2025.
First Four Matchups: TEN, @IND, @LAC, CIN
5. Jayden Daniels (WAS)
Andy: 4 / Jason: 4 / Mike: 5
Sleeper ADP: 3.07 (QB3)
Daniels paid off his 2nd overall NFL draft price, setting the record for most rushing yards ever by a rookie QB and scrambling 75 times – the most all time (since the 2016 PFF era). He averaged 7.4 rushing fantasy points per game and fished with elite passing efficiency: 3rd highest completions vs zone (75.2%), 4th highest passer rating vs zone, and 5th highest completion % in a clean pocket.
He lined up in shotgun 77% of the time, and the offense catered to his strengths. His skill positions are aging, so there’s a razor-thin margin for error selecting him at 3.07 overall if their wheels fall off.
| Position | Name | Age |
| RB | Brian Robinson Jr. | 26 |
| RB | Austin Ekeler | 30 |
| WR | Terry McLaurin | 29.8 |
| WR | Deebo Samuel | 29.5 |
| TE | Zach Ertz | 34.7 |
First Four Matchups: NYG, @GB, LV, @ATL
4. Joe Burrow (CIN)
Andy: 3 / Jason: 5 / Mike: 4
Sleeper ADP: 4.07 (QB5)
Burrow lit it up from Week 9 on, with a legendary stretch of eight straight games of 250+ yards and 3+ TDs, tying Kurt Warner‘s record for the most completions in an 8-game span (248). His 17-game pace was silly: 5,627 yards, 57 TDs on 720 attempts. Cincinnati ramped up red zone aggression by calling pass plays 66.7% of the time inside the 20, their highest mark in the last three years.
While he lacks rushing upside, he’s one of only three pocket passers in the last decade to return value after being drafted in the top four rounds. He’s a classic slow starter, but once the weather cools off, Burrow heats up, as seen in his 23.2 FPPG in December.
| Month | G | Win % | Cmp% | TD % | FPPG |
| September | 18 | 38.90% | 65.4 | 4.70% | 16.5 |
| October | 20 | 50.00% | 70.51 | 5.60% | 20.5 |
| November | 15 | 53.30% | 65.52 | 5.20% | 18.8 |
| December | 13 | 76.90% | 72.73 | 6.90% | 23.2 |
First Four Matchups: @CLE, JAX, @MIN, @DEN
3. Jalen Hurts (PHI)
Andy: 5 / Jason: 2 / Mike: 3
Sleeper ADP: 4.04 (QB4)
Hurts didn’t match his monster 25.2 PPG from 2022, but he still ranked top 10 in FPPG while dominating near the goal line. He tied Kyren Williams for the most rushing TDs inside the five (11), and 51% of the Eagles’ carries inside the five went to Hurts. That’s bananas considering Saquon Barkley is the team’s RB.
The Tush Push didn’t go anywhere, and Hurts added 18 carries inside the five-yard line, tied for the 2nd most in the NFL. The passing volume was tiny (18 TDs on 25.5 attempts per game), but his red zone usage keeps his fantasy floor strong.
First Four Matchups: DAL, @KC, LAR, @TB
2. Josh Allen (BUF)
Andy: 1 / Jason: 3 / Mike: 1
Sleeper ADP: 2.10 (QB1)
Josh Allen, sorry STALLION, finished as a top-2 fantasy QB in five of the last six seasons and continues to crush with his legs via 27 rushing TDs over the past two. He tied his career high with 32 red zone carries and now sits just 10 TDs behind Cam Newton‘s all-time rushing QB record.
Buffalo’s offense continues to lean into rushing TD opportunities, with a 54.6% red zone rush rate, their highest in the last three years. Even with red zone passing volume trending down, Allen’s physical dominance keeps him firmly in the highest QB echelon.
| Team | 2022 Rush% | 2023 Rush% | 2024 Rush% |
| Bills | 43.30% | 52.10% | 54.60% |
First Four Matchups: BAL, @NYJ, MIA, NO
1. Lamar Jackson (BAL)
Andy: 2 / Jason: 1 / Mike: 2
Sleeper ADP: 3.02 (QB2)
Lamar is coming off the most consistent fantasy QB season of all time: 16, top-12 finishes broke Patrick Mahomes‘ record set in 2022. He led all QBs in fantasy points per dropback, passer rating, yards per attempt (8.8), and passer rating vs zone. News alert: he’s a complete QB now.
That said, with efficiency stats at career highs, he’s a natural TD regression candidate. The good news is that at 90% of last year’s production, he’d still be a Konami code.
First Four Matchups: @BUF, CLE, DET, @KC
Late Round Dart Throws
Andy: Jordan Love
Jason: Drake Maye
Mike: Justin Fields
from Fantasy Footballers Podcast https://ift.tt/ltmEFuv
No comments: