Home / Fantasy Footballers Podcast / Sports News / The Path to a WR1 Fantasy Football Season: DK Metcalf (Fantasy Football)

The Path to a WR1 Fantasy Football Season: DK Metcalf (Fantasy Football)

- ,
DK Metcalf as a Pittsburgh Steeler

Under new leadership for the first time in 14 years, the Seahawks stayed steady in 2024, barely missing the playoffs at 10-7. This sparked a dramatic offseason of turmoil and turnover, which fittingly brings us to our topic today: DK Metcalf.

Season Tgts Rec Rec Yds TDs Tgt Share aDOT YPRR
2022 141 90 1,048 6 25.5% 11.8 1.93
2023 119 66 1,114 8 22.9% 12.7 2.08
2024 108 66 992 5 21.3% 13.7 1.83

Editor’s Note: This profile is part of our annual Path to a Fantasy WR1 series. For our methodology and an outline of the process, make sure you read the 2025 Path to WR1 Series Primer.

2024 Season Recap

Metcalf’s season was a tale of two halves.

Through the first seven weeks, he was undeniably the team’s WR1 and Geno Smith‘s first read. First-time NFL Offensive Coordinator Ryan Grubb’s pass-happy game plans seemed to favor Metcalf, as he paced the team in targets (8.7/game), receiving yards (519), and TDs (3) in that span.

His game-breaking ability was on display, ranking as fantasy’s WR8 overall (.5 PPR), with his three TDs coming from distances of 31, 56, and 71 yards out. DK looked like a man amongst boys, poised to set career-highs in both targets and receiving yards, and reinstate himself as one of the league’s most dominant and exciting playmakers.

Unfortunately, an MCL sprain in Week 7 would cause him to miss the next three weeks and change the course of his season. This timeframe would prove extremely important, as he would inevitably cede the WR1 role to budding superstar Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who would go on to post his first fantasy WR1 season in his own right. Metcalf never quite looked the same in his return from injury. Despite four games of 99+ yards to open the season, he never posted more than 70 in any remaining game, finishing the season with the worst fantasy performance of his career (WR34).

Reports of a trade request began in early March, shortly after the team released fellow veteran Tyler Lockett. Although the release of Lockett appeared to favor Metcalf’s standing and future in Seattle, the team granted his request, shipping him to Pittsburgh in exchange for a second-round pick in the 2025 NFL Draft. Many questioned the move given similar skill sets between Metcalf and George Pickens, but Pickens was quickly shipped to Dallas, locking in Metcalf as the team’s WR1 for the foreseeable future.

The Path for 2025

In an attempt to bore opposing defenses to death, Arthur Smith’s offense finished the 2024 season fourth in rush attempts (533) and 11th in rush yards (2,166), while coming in 20th in PPG (21.9). They finished bottom-four in pass attempts (499), bottom-seven in pass yards (3,607), and relied heavily on defense and clock management to reach yet another playoff appearance, extending Mike Tomlin’s impressive streak to 18 straight seasons above .500. Good for you, Glen Coco.

With no major coaching changes made in Pittsburgh, there is little reason to expect any sort of scheme overhaul in 2025. We can presumably predict another year of stout defensive play and smash-mouth football from the Steelers, where they punch you in the mouth, maybe bite some kneecaps, and then score nine points and lull you to sleep in the Wild Card round.

There was, however, one significant change on the offensive side of the ball: Aaron Rodgers.

Say what you want about Rodgers, but it is clear the team views him as a significant upgrade over both Russell Wilson and Justin Fields. Seemingly on Rodgers’ word alone, the team chose to let Wilson and Fields walk for the two cheapest QB deals in the league, just to sign Rodgers to a one-year rental with no heir apparent in their QB room for 2026. That is saying something.

As bad as the community considered Rodgers to be last year, he still finished as fantasy’s QB17. If we applied his 15.1 PPG to the one game he missed, he would have finished right behind Justin Herbert at QB14. Those are borderline QB1 numbers for a 41-year-old coming off an Achilles tear with no rushing aspect remaining in his game. He also brought not one, but two WRs to top-15 status in Davante Adams and Garrett Wilson, bringing us to our next point: Aaron Rodgers is not afraid to hyper-target his best friends.

Davante Adams was traded to the Jets halfway through last season and was the WR8 from that point on. He averaged 10.4 targets/game and scored seven TDs, and that was with Garrett Wilson on the other side. With a high-stakes battle between Calvin Austin, Roman Wilson, and the ghost of Robert Woods competing for the WR2 job in Pittsburgh, there could and should be a blossoming friendship between Rodgers and Metcalf.

Admittedly, DK does not fit the mold of the WRs that Rodgers has latched onto in years past. He is not known for his precise route running or timing patterns, but he has significantly developed his route tree in the NFL, and will be asked to do so even more in Pittsburgh. Given his hefty payday and 95% route participation rate over the past three years, there is no reason he should be leaving the field in 2025.

Target Share

DK finished the 2024 season with a target share of 21.3% (18% in the red zone), ranking second on his team, but it was his lowest percentage since his rookie season.

With a fresh start in Pittsburgh and very little competition for targets, we can safely expect this number to regress to the mean in 2025. If we want to simply plug-and-play statistics, we can compare George Pickens, who saw a 26.5% target share last season (ranking 14th in the league), including a 34% red zone target share.

While the team has been reportedly looking to add another pass-catcher to the room, it appears (at the moment) this void has been filled by none other than teacher’s pet: Jonnu Smith. Jonnu showed us last year that he still has plenty of game left, but his target share and playing time will likely be at the expense of fellow TE Pat Freiermuth, not Metcalf. Both he and Freiermuth will cannibalize each other’s fantasy performances in 2025, and make both of them difficult to trust or start on a weekly basis.

Although this team will be predictably run-heavy once again, we can almost guarantee a floor of 25% for a healthy Metcalf. Even using last year’s bottom-dwelling 499 pass attempts, this modest number would project approximately 125 targets for Metcalf. And, assuming the Steelers change their run-first philosophy (even in the slightest) with Aaron Rodgers at the helm, the passing volume should only increase, which will, of course, benefit Metcalf.

TDs

TDs are the most unpredictable and arguably most important statistic for fantasy football, with 2024 representing Metcalf’s career-low (5). It’s worth noting that three of these came before his MCL sprain, and the remaining two weren’t until the final three weeks of the season.

Metcalf had zero red zone TDs on just nine targets last year, ranking 52nd at the position. For someone of his size and stature, this feels like an underutilized skill set, and something I would imagine him and Rodgers will be practicing as soon as today. Although he struggled with contested catches in 2024, that has historically not been a concern, and is another number that could improve with a few higher quality targets.

Metcalf always carries 10+ TD upside (he has already done this twice), but if he can even get back to his career average of eight, he could reinsert himself back into low-end WR1 conversation.

Yards and aDOT

Despite being on track to break his personal best for the first half of the season, DK finished just short of the 1,000-yard mark (992) for the third time in his six-year career. With that said, there is a definitive line in the sand regarding his 2024 performance, and he still has never finished below 900 receiving yards or 100 targets in any season. This presents a very nice floor considering he no longer has studs like Tyler Lockett or JSN to compete with on the other side.

Even with career lows in most statistical categories, it was encouraging to see his 13.7 aDOT ranking 14th among all WRs. He still led the league in deep targets (32), with his 746 unrealized air yards ranked 10th. This left a lot of fantasy points on the field, especially considering the target accuracy of the passes he was seeing ranked 30th (all per PlayerProfiler).

Many will be quick to blame Geno Smith for these numbers, but Seattle’s offensive line allowed the second-highest pressure rate in the league last season (34.5%). They left no time for downfield plays to develop, which is a deep threat’s (like Metcalf) worst nightmare. Between injuries and surprise midseason retirements, this trend continued to worsen throughout the season, which could also attribute to how JSN became the team’s target hog from Week 8 on.

Conclusion

As the Ballers’ WR21, we currently have Metcalf ranked slightly ahead of consensus. It appears that some combination of name and team fatigue is contributing to this, but it’s essential to note that DK has not finished below WR18 in the past five consecutive seasons (prior to 2024), with two of those finishes in the top 12. He has little to no target competition on his new team, is fully healthy, and is now being paid at the top end of the WR market. The expectations will be sky-high in Steel City.

The case for Metcalf’s WR1 season will depend on volume, health, and rapport with his new team. If the stars can align, a back-end WR1 season is certainly in the realm of possibility. A mid-WR2 season feels far more probable given the offensive system and the defensive focus he will be receiving, but at just 27 years old, there is plenty of youth, talent, upside, and opportunity for DK to hit the WR1 mark once again.

Faders gon’ fade, as they say, but at a current ADP of WR23 (via Underdog), it feels like he’s being drafted closer to his floor than his ceiling. DK is and will continue to be a favorite WR2/WR3 target of mine given his athleticism, proven track record, and all-but-guaranteed WR1 volume.



from Fantasy Footballers Podcast https://ift.tt/GN2rFVk
The Path to a WR1 Fantasy Football Season: DK Metcalf (Fantasy Football) The Path to a WR1 Fantasy Football Season: DK Metcalf (Fantasy Football) Reviewed by Admin on July 15, 2025 Rating: 5

No comments:

Subscribe to: Post Comments ( Atom )
Powered by Blogger.