Too often, we overlook valuable data from the previous season that could give us a real edge in fantasy drafts. One of the most important tools to utilize and exploit during draft season is ADP; yet, once the games begin, we tend to forget where players were actually drafted and focus only on how they finish.
It is often said that we do not dislike players; we dislike their draft cost. By comparing a player’s draft position to their end-of-season finish, we can uncover meaningful insights about their true value. Looking back at ADP versus actual production helps us evaluate whether players lived up to their draft-day price or fell short.
In this article, we will analyze where the top RBs were drafted in 2024 and where they finished, as well as which top finishers were draft-day bargains. The goal is to identify trends and actionable takeaways you can use to gain an edge in your 2025 fantasy drafts.
Check out the first article from this series, featuring QBs.
Note: All statistics used are half-PPR scoring per the Ballers’ Consistency Charts found at JointheFoot.com. All ADP data is sourced from Sleeper.
Top-12 Drafted RBs in 2024:
| Player | 2024 Draft Position | 2024 Finish | 2023 Finish |
| Christian McCaffrey | RB1 | RB67 | RB1 |
| Bijan Robinson | RB2 | RB4 | RB12 |
| Breece Hall | RB3 | RB18 | RB6 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | RB4 | RB3 | RB9 |
| Jonathan Taylor | RB5 | RB14 | RB35 |
| Saquon Barkley | RB6 | RB1 | RB16 |
| Travis Etienne | RB7 | RB39 | RB3 |
| Kyren Williams | RB8 | RB6 | RB4 |
| Derrick Henry | RB9 | RB2 | RB8 |
| De’Von Achane | RB10 | RB7 | RB22 |
| Josh Jacobs | RB11 | RB5 | RB23 |
| Isiah Pacheco | RB12 | RB62 | RB13 |
If there is one major drawback to drafting RBs in the first two rounds of fantasy drafts, it is the increased injury risk. No position is more volatile when it comes to health, but no position offers more upside either. Elite RBs often lead all skill players in fantasy points, making the risk a calculated one.
Take Christian McCaffrey, for example. He was the consensus RB1 entering last season despite lingering injury concerns. He had just finished as the RB1 in 2023 after being the RB2 the year before, so the upside was clear. But once again, injuries derailed his season. He played in just four games, not appearing on the field until Week 10, and was shut down by the conclusion of Week 13. While the logic behind drafting him high was sound, the outcome stung for those who took the plunge.
Injuries are part of the game, but not every bust comes with a medical excuse. Breece Hall was drafted as a top-three back in 2024 and managed to play 16 games, but still fell short, finishing as the RB18. He ran for fewer than 900 yards and just five rushing TDs. His involvement in the passing game helped salvage a top-20 finish, but he did not come close to meeting expectations.
Travis Etienne was even worse. Despite playing in 15 games, he finished as the RB38, a steep fall from his RB3 finish the year previous. His efficiency had been slipping, but last season’s drop-off was jarring. It did not feel like something you could have predicted or avoided. If there is a takeaway here, it is that even healthy, highly productive backs from the year before are not guaranteed to deliver again. Jonathan Taylor also failed to meet his draft-day cost, but a strong second half helped elevate him to a more respectable finish.
On the other hand, several early-round RBs not only lived up to their draft capital but also outperformed expectations. Bijan Robinson, Jahmyr Gibbs, Saquon Barkley, Josh Jacobs, Kyren Williams, Derrick Henry, and De’Von Achane all delivered strong returns relative to their ADPs. Notably, Barkley, Henry, and Jacobs, three veteran backs transitioning to new teams, reminded us that elite talent landing in upgraded situations should not be underestimated. Going forward, these success stories reinforce the value of targeting proven playmakers stepping into favorable environments.
In the end, about half of the top-12 RBs last year provided solid returns. Hall and Taylor may not have crushed it, but they did not completely tank your season either. It was McCaffrey, Etienne, and Isiah Pacheco who created the biggest headaches, turning early-round picks into steep uphill battles just to stay competitive. While McCaffrey remains a locked-in first-round pick heading into 2025, Etienne and Pacheco are being selected much later, making them intriguing bounce-back candidates and potential draft-day values.
Ultimately, last season reaffirmed that paying up for elite RBs is always a gamble. Sometimes it works, sometimes it burns you, but when it works, the payoff is massive. With few truly elite options at the position, those hits and misses can be the difference between a championship run and a lost season.
Top-12 RB Fantasy Finishes in 2024 (Weeks 1-17):
| Player | 2024 Finish | 2024 Draft Position | 2023 Finish |
| Saquon Barkley | RB1 | RB6 | RB16 |
| Derrick Henry | RB2 | RB9 | RB8 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | RB3 | RB4 | RB9 |
| Bijan Robinson | RB4 | RB2 | RB12 |
| Josh Jacobs | RB5 | RB11 | RB23 |
| Kyren Williams | RB6 | RB8 | RB4 |
| De’Von Achane | RB7 | RB10 | RB22 |
| James Cook | RB8 | RB14 | RB10 |
| Alvin Kamara | RB9 | RB17 | RB11 |
| James Conner | RB10 | RB19 | RB25 |
| Chase Brown | RB11 | RB41 | RB65 |
| Chuba Hubbard | RB12 | RB43 | RB28 |
Looking back at last year’s top-12 fantasy RBs, some were early-round picks who delivered as expected, while others came out of nowhere to become league-winners. The first seven leading scorers were all drafted inside the top 12, but the next five were not. James Cook, Alvin Kamara, James Conner, Chase Brown, and Chuba Hubbard all exceeded expectations, though they each got there in different ways.
Cook was drafted just outside the top-12 and finished as the RB8, thanks in large part to an unexpected (and potentially unsustainable) 16 rushing TDs. Considering he had just two in each of the previous two seasons, that number feels like a major outlier and suggests regression in 2025. Brown and Hubbard, on the other hand, were often undrafted last year and ended up as waiver wire pickups. Both were drafted outside the top-40 at the position and ended up rounding out the top-12. They emerged as clear examples of backs in ambiguous backfields who earned opportunities and capitalized.
Kamara and Conner serve as reminders that aging veterans often slip in drafts because managers are hesitant to trust players near the end of their careers. While they may be fading assets in dynasty formats, they continue to offer strong value in redraft. In fact, five of last season’s top-12 backs (Saquon Barkley, Derrick Henry, Josh Jacobs, Kamara, and Conner) were at or approaching the so-called 27-year-old age cliff. Their success is a strong argument for separating dynasty thinking from redraft strategy. While young, unproven backs may look more exciting, proven veterans are still more than capable of delivering elite production.
Top-12 Drafted RBs in 2025 (Current Sleeper ADP):
| Player | 2025 Draft Position | 2024 Finish | 2024 Draft Position |
| Saquon Barkley | RB1 | RB1 | RB6 |
| Bijan Robinson | RB2 | RB4 | RB2 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | RB3 | RB3 | RB4 |
| Derrick Henry | RB4 | RB2 | RB9 |
| Ashton Jeanty | RB5 | N/A | N/A |
| Christian McCaffrey | RB6 | RB67 | RB1 |
| De’Von Achane | RB7 | RB7 | RB10 |
| Bucky Irving | RB8 | RB16 | RB53 |
| Josh Jacobs | RB9 | RB5 | RB11 |
| Jonathan Taylor | RB10 | RB14 | RB5 |
| Kyren Williams | RB11 | RB6 | RB8 |
| Chase Brown | RB12 | RB11 | RB65 |
Now that we have reviewed and analyzed last season’s ADP compared to actual finishes, we can apply those trends to 2025 fantasy drafts. While ADP will continue to shift over the next month, we already have a solid sense of where RBs will be selected.
There is a bit of a crossroads at the top of the RB rankings this year between Saquon Barkley and Bijan Robinson. Barkley finished as the RB1 last season, but some expect regression. Robinson, meanwhile, is in his prime and looks like a lock to finish inside the top five if he can stay healthy, something Jason has personally guaranteed.
Jahmyr Gibbs is the clear next name in most leagues, but after that, things start to get interesting. Current ADP shows a willingness to bet on incoming rookie sensation Ashton Jeanty despite his lack of experience, and others are ready to move past last season’s injuries and give Christian McCaffrey another shot. It feels like any player from RB4 through RB12 in draft position could end up as a hit or a miss, making it even more important to take advantage of potential ADP inefficiencies this year. The ADP Platform Comparison tool in the UDK helps you see exactly where these top options are being drafted across different platforms, making it easier to spot value picks and gain a strategic edge in your specific league.
While many names on the list were expected, two of the biggest risers last season were Bucky Irving and Chase Brown. Both entered the year with modest expectations but finished as breakout stars. Although Irving is typically drafted ahead of Brown this year, they offer similar upside and belong in a similar tier. Their strong finishes led to well-earned climbs in ADP, but that has not been the case for Chuba Hubbard. Despite finishing in the same range, he is being drafted as the RB19, suggesting that many remain skeptical about the sustainability of his breakout.
Veterans Alvin Kamara and James Conner also outperformed expectations last season but are once again being drafted well below their finishes because of age concerns. Joe Mixon and Aaron Jones fall into that same category as top-15 performers who are now being drafted later, presenting another opportunity for value.
Among last year’s top-12 drafted RBs, only Travis Etienne and Isiah Pacheco fell out of the group heading into 2025. Both are now being drafted outside the top 20, making them appealing bounce-back candidates with minimal risk based on their current cost. While it is easy to hold a grudge against players who let you down, letting go of past frustrations can open the door to major value in the upcoming season.
from Fantasy Footballers Podcast https://ift.tt/7dKO0bx
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