Many dynasty leagues hold their Rookie Drafts shortly after the NFL draft in April. However, there are plenty of leagues out there still waiting to draft, hoping to gain more insight into the fantasy outlook of each rookie. If your Rookie Draft is yet to come, this is the content you need to see!
The 2025 rookie RB class is being heralded as one of the best in recent memory. Listed below are three reasons you should trade out of the first round of this year’s rookie draft, and two second-round targets for you to consider instead. And shoot, even if you already had your Rookie Draft, you can still make deals by capitalizing on the freshness of draft capital bias!
Reason 1: Unclear Workloads
For this exercise, we’re just going to focus on RBs drafted in the first three rounds of the NFL draft, since our data shows these are the only rounds with a greater than 20% hit rate for RBs. This year, all Day 1 and Day 2 RBs, save for Ashton Jeanty, landed in crowded or murky backfields. Omarion Hampton, Quinshon Judkins, TreVeyon Henderson, RJ Harvey, and Kaleb Johnson all begin their careers with immediate competition from either incumbent starters or additional draft picks, leaving us to question their initial workloads. Given the short shelf-life of an NFL RB, you may not get as many (if any) RB1 seasons out of these folks as you might typically expect out of a first-round rookie pick.
Reason 2: The Lower Value of RBs in Dynasty
I stand on the shoulders of giants – well, in this case, maybe just one giant: Fantasy Footballers writer, Marvin Elequin. His series on the Lifecycle of a Dynasty Player is a must-read. Per Marvin’s research, you’re aiming for 5-6 years of useful fantasy production from your RBs. Compare that to 7-10 years for a WR or 8-10 years for TEs, and you start to see why the best dynasty rosters are built around pass-catchers. Given the frequency and severity of RB injuries, I’d rather wait to opportunistically pounce on the waiver wire, stash handcuff RBs, and/or make a late-season trade for an older stud RB when I’m making a championship run.
Reason 3: Capitalize on the Hype
As I mentioned, this is THE great RB class of the last several years, right? Everyone has heard about it since before the NFL draft. So, the value of your first-round picks this year are even greater than usual, given the hype. Trade back into the second round and pick up a first or second-rounder in the 2026 or 2027 draft. You’ll thank yourself later.
Now, I don’t put all my faith in trade calculators… but some of your league mates definitely do! Here are just a couple of trades that would pass the KeepTradeCut test, and I love the value of future picks received from trading back in these scenarios.
- TRADE pick 1.03/1.04 FOR 2025 mid-2nd round pick + 2026 1st round pick
- TRADE pick 1.03 + 2025 mid-4th round pick FOR 2026 1st round pick + 2027 1st round pick.
Reason 4 (BONUS!): Everyone wants to be Costner
No real analysis here. Trading is super fun, and trading on draft day is the closest we all can feel to Sonny Weaver Jr.
Who To Target in the 2nd Round
If you find yourself trading back into the 2nd round, there are a couple of elite prospects with high upside that could change the course of your dynasty team for years to come.
1. Tyler Warren – You can debate Tyler Warren vs. Colston Loveland all you want, but the truth is that Warren is more versatile and has less competition for touches than Loveland. I’m not saying Warren is the next Brock Bowers, but I’m not not saying it either. In fact, NFL.com graded Warren as a slightly better prospect than Bowers (and Loveland, for that matter) pre-draft. This kid (man) can take a jet sweep, line up in the wildcat, or burn Linebackers & Safeties up the seam.
I think the Colts have a “nice” group of WRs, but Warren is a matchup nightmare. In his Senior season at Penn State, Warren tallied 104 receptions for 1,233 yards (11.9 YPR) and 8 TDs, he ran the ball 26 times for 218 yards (8.4 YPC) and 4 TDs, and he even carried an Anthony Richardson-like 50% completion percentage on six passes, with 35 passing yards and another TD. It may be another year before the Colts get league-average QB play, but I think Warren is worth the wait. Better yet, forget about playing a true QB for the Colts; just line this guy up in the shotgun and let him figure it out!
2. Luther Burden – I know, I know… one of my arguments against these RBs was the crowded backfield for each landing spot. And Burden is now WR3 for Chicago and also competing for targets with a first-round TE. But he’s a special talent with an offensive guru for a Head Coach. And he’s the one WR that new Coach Ben Johnson chose himself. I think he does a lot of the things that both Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams do well, and I think he has the potential to be a star in the NFL. Add to it the fact that DJ Moore and Caleb Williams seemed to be on different pages last year (Moore had a well-documented case of frowny-face), and there’s a chance we’ll see Moore’s target-share shift toward Burden as the season progresses. And while the Bears spent a top-10 pick on Rome Odunze last year, his rookie season left a lot to be desired. There’s undoubtedly a role for him in Johnson’s offense, but it’s unlikely that of a target hog.
The beauty of dynasty fantasy football is that you get to build and manage your team however you want, with one eye on the present and one eye toward the future. But if you find yourself hesitant to pull the trigger on a first-round RB, consider moving back and picking up additional picks. And then smash the button for Tyler Warren and/or Luther Burden.
from Fantasy Footballers Podcast https://ift.tt/gDmlynq
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