Welcome back to the 2025 edition of the Risk Bakery, the series where we throw on our aprons, preheat the oven, and dig into those players who might look scary to draft on the surface, but whose ADP is already well-cooked with the risks factored in.
So far, we’ve covered WRs and RBs who have fallen in drafts because of injury concerns, age, role changes, or just plain bad vibe, only to find that those fears may be overblown at their current cost. Today, it’s time to take a look at TEs.
As always, don’t forget to check out the Fantasy Footballers Ultimate Draft Kit+, where you can find player rankings complete with a Risk Meter to help you gauge just how volatile each pick might be. Now let’s turn on the oven and see which TEs have their risk already baked into the price.
Travis Kelce – Kansas City Chiefs
| ADP | Overall | 2024 Finish |
| TE6 | 91 | TE6 |
The eternal TE1 in fantasy (and in our hearts) is no longer the king of the mountain. Travis Kelce finished as the TE6 last season and is being drafted exactly like that in 2025. He’ll turn 36 in October, and this could very well be his farewell tour.
Last year, he posted career lows in yards per catch and yards per route run, and he scored the fewest TDs since his rookie season. So, is he still a focal point in the Chiefs’ offense? He should be. The connection with Patrick Mahomes remains elite, and there’s no reason to believe he won’t be heavily involved.
Can he finish as the TE1 again? Probably not, considering the wave of young talent entering the league over the last few years. But beating his ADP is definitely within his range of outcomes. Remember, he was still going as the TE1 just last season. But fantasy managers are getting smarter, and that’s why this long list of question marks is already baked into his current seventh-round price.
Mark Andrews – Baltimore Ravens
| ADP | Overall | 2024 Finish |
| TE8 | 104 | TE5 |
Last season was a tale of two halves for Mark Andrews. Through his first five games, he totaled just 10 receptions for 120 yards and no TDs. But from Week 6 on, he became a TD machine, ending the year with a career-high 11 TDs, even while recording his lowest yards per game since his rookie year in 2018.
Trade rumors surrounded him late last season, especially after that costly drop on a two-point conversion attempt that ended the Ravens’ season. He’s entering the final year of his contract, and trading him would have saved the team around $11 million in cap space. However, Andrews remains a Raven, and he should continue to be one of Lamar Jackson’s top targets.
Still, there’s volatility. The Ravens were second-to-last in total pass attempts, as they committed to establishing the run with Derrick Henry and Lamar Jackson. And Isaiah Likely’s increasing involvement adds another layer of uncertainty. And as we always say, TDs aren’t the stickiest stat in fantasy, which makes Andrews a bit of a rollercoaster pick. But at TE8? We could say all these risk factors are thoroughly cooked into his ADP.
David Njoku – Cleveland Browns
| ADP | Overall | 2024 Finish |
| TE10 | 120 | TE11 |
David Njoku has always felt like a promise waiting to be fulfilled. Following a career-best 2023, his efficiency declined in 2024, and he missed six games due to injuries. Still, he remained fantasy-relevant thanks to strong volume, especially during the seven games when Jameis Winston was under center.
What makes him risky now? For one, QB uncertainty. At this point, no one knows who will start for the Browns, and there’s a decent chance a rookie QB becomes the starter sooner or later. Then there’s his contract status; Njoku is in the final year of his deal, and the Browns drafted Harold Fanning Jr. with hopes of getting Njoku’s replacement.
However, Cleveland led the league in total targets last year and ranks #1 in vacated targets heading into 2025. TEs alone account for 58 of those vacated targets, and most of them should go Njoku’s way. Rookie QBs also tend to lean on their TEs as safety valves, which could secure Njoku’s volume regardless of who is throwing the ball. At TE10 in the 9th or 10th round, Njoku doesn’t feel like a risky pick — he feels like a value pick with upside.
Kyle Pitts – Atlanta Falcons
| ADP | Overall | 2024 Finish |
| TE17 | 153 | TE15 |
Few players in fantasy football stir up reactions like Kyle Pitts. Once hailed as a “unicorn” who would redefine the TE position in fantasy, he hasn’t delivered since his 1,000-yard rookie season. Three years outside the top 12 have crushed his fantasy stock all the way down to a TE17 ADP.
But Pitts is still only 24 years old, which you can interpret in two very different ways: either he’s had four full seasons to prove himself and simply hasn’t delivered, or he is still younger than most TEs were when they broke out, and might just need more time to fully develop into the star he was projected to be. Things are changing in Atlanta.
With Zac Robinson in his second year as OC and Michael Penix Jr. now as the starting QB from the get-go, Pitts might finally find some consistency. Last year’s Kirk Cousins experiment was a bust, but this offense could be trending in a new direction. We’ve been burned before, but drafting Pitts at TE17 is the definition of a low-risk, high-upside play. If he doesn’t hit, you drop him. If he does, you just found a virtually free lottery ticket.
Tyler Warren – Indianapolis Colts
| ADP | Overall | 2024 Finish |
| TE11 | 126 | N/A |
Rookies are always risky, especially rookie TEs. Despite the recent success of players like Sam LaPorta and Brock Bowers, having a third consecutive rookie finish as the TE1 would be a major statistical anomaly.
That said, if any rookie can finish among the top TEs in 2025, it’s Tyler Warren. In his final season at Penn State, Warren was electric: 104 receptions, 1,233 yards, and eight TDs, with nearly half of his catches going for a first down or score. He’s an athletic freak with serious upside. However, let’s not forget that he is still a rookie, and history is working against him. There’s also the issue of the Colts’ tendency to rotate TEs, which often diminishes the fantasy value for the entire group (remember Mo Alie-Cox and Jelani Woods? They’re still on the roster). Additionally, there is the question about the quality of targets coming from either Anthony Richardson or Daniel Jones, which could be real red flags. Still, at TE11, Warren is a bet worth making in the 10th round.
from Fantasy Footballers Podcast https://ift.tt/WHZR8dF
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