Welcome back to our Dynasty Ultimatums series! Over the past couple of seasons, this series has focused on players at a career crossroads, highlighting those on the verge of pivotal fantasy seasons and assessing their dynasty outlook. Looking back at last year’s article, a few of the featured WRs ended up as major busts, creating a perfect sell-high window for those who acted early. Others, however, exceeded expectations and saw their dynasty value rise.
The 2024 group featured Jameson Williams, Quentin Johnston, Marquise Brown, Jerry Jeudy, and Romeo Doubs. Williams and Jeudy exceeded expectations, both finishing as top-20 WRs and hitting their dynasty ultimatums in dramatic fashion. Johnston, however, fell just short of meeting his goals. While he still holds some fantasy value heading into next season, it is becoming evident that he will likely never develop into the player he was drafted to be. Brown only appeared in two games, so his season is harder to judge and deserves a bit of a pass. As for Doubs, he missed four games due to injury but was still trending toward falling short. It is now clear that, at least in Green Bay, he is more of a complementary option than a receiver to build an offense around.
As the 2025 NFL season approaches, it brings a host of questions about the fate of many notable players. For dynasty managers, maintaining realistic expectations for these controversial players is crucial. It can be tough to lose faith in players we once had high hopes for, but setting dynasty ultimatums can help us manage our rosters more effectively. In this article, we will explore controversial WRs entering make-or-break seasons, outlining the specific goals they must achieve to meet their current expectations.
Check out the first two articles from this series, featuring QBs and RBs.
Jaylen Waddle, WR, Miami Dolphins (26.6 y.o.)
Current Contract: Rookie Extension (2024-2028) 3 yr(s) / $84,750,000
*POTENTIAL OUT: 2028, 4 YR, $77,319,454; $9,726,600 DEAD CAP*
Free Agent: 2029 / UFA
Jaylen Waddle opened his career with back-to-back standout seasons that positioned him as one of the league’s next elite WRs. He hauled in 104 catches as a rookie in 2021, then followed that up with 1,356 yards and eight TDs in 2022, finishing as the WR7. Since then, his fantasy production has been in a sharp decline. He dropped to WR34 in 2023 and then WR46 in 2024, falling far short of expectations.
Waddle has averaged 15.5 games per season throughout his career, but nagging injuries have constantly been an issue. Whether he is limited on the field or forced to leave games early, durability has been a consistent concern. At under 190 pounds, it is not surprising that the physical toll of the game has caught up with him. For dynasty stakeholders, it has been frustrating to rarely feel secure that he will make it through a full game. His smaller stature adds real weekly risk that is worth considering.
While there are several factors behind his recent drop-off, the most glaring is his declining target share. After seeing 140 targets as a rookie, that number has decreased each year. In 2024, he saw just 83 targets, which was the first time he had fallen below 100. The arrival of Tyreek Hill has clearly capped Waddle’s ceiling potential over the last couple of seasons. Hill is the focal point of the offense, and Waddle has settled into a secondary role. However, last season, it got even worse. Waddle ranked fourth in the team’s target pecking order, trailing not only Hill but also De’Von Achane and Jonnu Smith. A player of his caliber should never be getting out-targeted by an RB and a TE.
| Player | Season | Team | GP | TGT | REC | YDS | REC TD |
| Tyreek Hill | 2024 | MIA | 17 | 123 | 81 | 959 | 6 |
| Jonnu Smith | 2024 | MIA | 17 | 111 | 88 | 884 | 8 |
| De’Von Achane | 2024 | MIA | 17 | 87 | 78 | 592 | 6 |
| Jaylen Waddle | 2024 | MIA | 15 | 83 | 58 | 744 | 2 |
Waddle’s production took a significant hit in 2024, with his yards per route run falling to a concerning 1.53. Tua Tagovailoa’s ongoing injury problems, combined with Miami’s shift to a quick-pass offense, limited Waddle’s opportunities as a deep threat. The Dolphins focused on shorter throws to protect Tua, and when he was out of the lineup, the offense struggled to sustain drives. As the offense sputtered, Waddle often faded into the background. In over half his games, he saw five or fewer targets and failed to top 50 receiving yards in the majority of them. He also scored just two TDs all year, capping off a season to forget for both Waddle and his dynasty managers.
There were still a few bright spots. Waddle caught nearly 70% of his targets and averaged 9.0 yards per target, which suggests efficiency when given opportunities. He also showed flashes of his signature speed, a trait that still sets him apart. With a full offseason to regroup and potentially rework his role in the offense, there is at least a chance Miami finds ways to get him more involved. He is still under 27 years old and firmly in his prime. However, with so many playmakers on the roster, it is tough to project a full return to form.
If Smith were to be traded, as rumored earlier this offseason, it could free up meaningful target volume. Hill is also nearing the end of his career and has off-field concerns that could affect his long-term future in Miami. If either player were to move, Waddle’s dynasty outlook could change in a hurry. But in the current setup, with Tua’s limitations and the crowded supporting cast, it remains difficult to envision Waddle putting together a resurgent season in 2025.
With that in mind, Waddle’s dynasty ultimatum is to finish 2025 as a top-24 WR. He hit that mark in his first two seasons and needs to get back there to justify his current value. He is still viewed as a high-end WR2 in most dynasty circles. If he posts another disappointing year, that perception will fade fast, and it will become tough to trade him without taking a loss.
If someone in your league still believes in Waddle’s ceiling potential, this might be your best opportunity to move him before his value adjusts to his current reality. On the other hand, if you can acquire him at a discount, the talent still at least looks intact. The real question is whether his situation will ever give him the chance to show it again.
Jayden Reed, WR, Green Bay Packers (25.2 y.o.)
Current Contract: Rookie (2023-2026) 4 yr(s) / $7,180,778
Free Agent: 2027 / UFA
Jayden Reed might be one of the most challenging players to evaluate in dynasty leagues; two years into his career, and there is still no clear sense of who he is. He made an electrifying debut in 2023, joining the elite ranks of WRs to notch 10 or more TDs in their first NFL season. Eight came through the air, and two on the ground, showcasing his versatility. He also neared 100 targets and finished as the WR23, quickly exceeding expectations and establishing himself as one of the league’s most promising young receivers.
See Jayden Reed.
See Jayden Reed run.
See Jayden Reed run a route.
See Jayden Reed run a route 2 times.
See Jayden Reed run a route 2 times total in 2-wide sets last year. pic.twitter.com/CGK2JGWEhc— Kyle Borgognoni (@kyle_borg) July 30, 2024
Unfortunately, year two told a very different story. Reed’s usage and production dipped, and his role remained inconsistent. He ran just two routes in 2-WR sets all season and logged more than 75% of snaps in only three games. His snap share fluctuated wildly, falling below 60% in 10 games, including a 55% rate in Green Bay’s playoff loss to the Eagles. You would think the team would want their top receiving weapon on the field when it mattered most.
His opportunities followed the same pattern. Reed had nine games with four or fewer targets, ten games with three or fewer receptions, and nine games with under 30 receiving yards. His fantasy playoff stretch was especially disappointing, highlighted by a zero-point outing in Week 14 and just one catch for six yards in the fantasy championship in Week 17.
The most frustrating part is how he started the season. Reed opened the year with a WR1 finish, racking up 31.1 fantasy points in Week 1, suggesting a breakout campaign was underway. That game ended up accounting for 18% of his season total. While he still posted three top-10 finishes, all with over 110 yards, and finished as the WR26, his week-to-week inconsistency made him more of a roster headache than a reliable starter.
Now entering his third season at 25 years old, Reed needs to prove he can lock down a consistent role. Otherwise, he risks being labeled a gadget player limited to 3-WR sets rather than a rising star. At just 5’11” and 187 pounds, there are questions about whether his frame can handle a full-time role despite his skill set.
Green Bay’s depth chart only adds to the uncertainty. Christian Watson, Romeo Doubs, Dontayvion Wicks, and Tucker Kraft are all back. On top of that, the Packers spent a first-round pick on wideout Matthew Golden, a move that signals their desire to find a true alpha. While Reed may see himself as that player, the team’s actions suggest otherwise. If the coaching staff does not view him as a top option, his role will likely remain inconsistent.
With Golden now in the mix and a crowded receiver room returning, Reed needs to prove he deserves to be on the field for the majority of snaps. If he remains a part-time option, his spike weeks will be overshadowed by long stretches of quiet production. To solidify his dynasty value, he needs to separate from the pack and emerge as Jordan Love’s most dependable target.
His dynasty ultimatum for 2025 is to finish as a top-20 WR. That would mark a career high and likely reflect a more consistent role. With Watson and Doubs both facing uncertain futures in Green Bay, there is a real opportunity for Reed to separate himself and become a full-time contributor. But if he fails to do so, and Golden emerges as the more dependable option, Reed’s dynasty stock could take a sharp fall. Rather than emerging as a cornerstone piece, he is trending toward being just another guy in dynasty formats if this trajectory continues.
Given the uncertainty, it is completely reasonable to cash out if another manager is willing to pay the premium for a young, talented WR. I still believe in Reed’s talent, but there is a real concern that his rookie season may have been more of a flash than a foundation. If you think he can take the next step, earn a full-time role, and improve his consistency, a buy-low window could be approaching. Personally, I lean toward more stable options in my starting lineup, so unless he shows genuine growth in these areas, my interest remains limited.
Rome Odunze, WR, Chicago Bears (23.1 y.o.)
Current Contract: Rookie (2024-2028) 4 yr(s) / $22,724,500
Free Agent: 2029 / UFA
There are not many young WRs who spark more disagreement in dynasty circles than Rome Odunze. Once a popular breakout pick earlier this offseason, his value took a major hit after the draft. Despite being selected No. 9 overall by the Bears a year ago, Odunze put together a decent but unspectacular rookie season. This included 54 catches for 734 yards and three TDs across 17 games, finishing as the WR46.
The volume was there, with just over 100 targets, but the efficiency was not. Odunze caught just 53% of those looks, a reflection of both his own growing pains and the dysfunction around him. Chicago’s offense was a mess, led by an overwhelmed rookie QB, a broken offensive line, and incompetent play-calling. The Bears finished 13th in pass attempts but 31st in passing yards, highlighting the disconnect between volume and production.
Even with steady usage, Odunze often took a back seat to DJ Moore, Keenan Allen, and Cole Kmet. Heading into 2025, the target competition has only intensified, making it harder to project a clear breakout path. On the bright side, Chicago will have a new head coach and playcaller in Ben Johnson, a well-respected offensive mind who found great success with the Lions. The Bears also reworked their offensive line to give Caleb Williams the best chance to progress in his second season.
There is hope that Odunze can take a step forward under improved circumstances. We just saw Jaxon Smith-Njigba break out after a quiet rookie year in Seattle once Shane Waldron was replaced. With Waldron now gone from Chicago, Odunze could follow a similar path. He is only 23 years old, has ideal size and elite athleticism, and produced at a high level in college at Washington. It is possible he was simply a product of a dysfunctional offense that masked his true potential.
Still, Odunze’s second-year breakout hype has cooled significantly following Chicago’s surprising draft day decisions. The Bears added TE Colston Loveland in the first round and WR Luther Burden in the second, crowding an already packed group of pass catchers. With Moore, Kmet, and now two more high-profile rookies in the mix, the offense suddenly feels like it has more mouths to feed than ever.
Due to his underwhelming rookie year and the crowded depth chart, Odunze enters 2025 with a wide range of outcomes. If Williams makes a big leap as a passer and decision-maker, Odunze could still emerge, despite the obstacles. But if he struggles again, Odunze’s dynasty value may take a major hit. Historically, WRs who do not break out in their first two seasons have a low success rate moving forward.
That makes 2025 a true make-or-break year for how we should value Odunze in dynasty. His ultimatum is to finish as a top-30 WR, which would show real progress toward living up to his draft capital. Given his upside, I am all for buying low on Odunze, as long as you recognize the red flags that could limit his ceiling. On the other hand, if someone is willing to overpay, I would strongly consider selling high. Otherwise, he is a reasonable hold with enough changes in his sophomore environment to potentially turn things around.
Ricky Pearsall, WR, San Francisco 49ers (24.8 y.o.)
Current Contract: Rookie (2024-2028) 4 yr(s) / $12,538,398
Free Agent: 2029 / UFA
There are not many worse ways to begin an NFL career than getting drafted, then being shot in the chest just a week before your first regular season snap. Tragically, that was the reality for Ricky Pearsall, who, by the grace of God, made a miraculous recovery after being shot in San Francisco last year. The incident delayed his debut until Week 7.
Pearsall was a surprising first-round pick, selected 31st overall by the 49ers. But he entered the league with a strong reputation as one of the class’s premier route runners and validated that with elite speed and athleticism at the combine. After a slow ramp-up, Pearsall came alive down the stretch. In Week 17, he posted eight catches for 141 yards and a TD, then followed it up with six catches for 69 yards and another score in Week 18. He tallied three games of 15 or more fantasy points over the second half of the season. Historically, that is a strong indicator of better things to come. Of the 14 rookies to do that over the past decade, 11 went on to average top-24 fantasy production in Year 2.
Thanks to recency bias, players who finish the season strong often get a boost in ADP the following year, and no one seems to be riding that wave more than Pearsall. His situation also helps. Brandon Aiyuk will start the season sidelined with no clear return date, and Deebo Samuel was traded to Washington, opening up a huge chunk of available targets. Pearsall and Jauan Jennings are expected to compete for the WR1 role, while George Kittle and Christian McCaffrey remain focal points when healthy. This gives Pearsall a clear path to proving that last year’s mini-breakout was not a fluke.
With Brock Purdy now locked in as the long-term QB and Kyle Shanahan still at the helm, the 49ers are aiming to reload rather than rebuild. Veterans like Kittle, McCaffrey, and Jennings are nearing the back end of their careers, and if Pearsall proves himself, it would make sense for the team to begin featuring him more prominently. At nearly 25 years old, he is a bit older than the average second-year player, which only adds pressure to deliver now.
Pearsall’s dynasty value has climbed significantly this offseason, driven more by potential than actual production. It is up to him to prove he is worth the hype. Like Rome Odunze, Pearsall enters 2025 with a clear dynasty ultimatum: finish as a top-30 WR. Hitting that benchmark would confirm he is on track to become a high-value long-term dynasty asset.
Because of his elevated price tag, selling high to a believer might be a smart move. But if you find a league mate who is not entirely sold, buying at a reasonable cost could lead to a strong return on investment. Either way, Pearsall is one of the most intriguing second-year receivers heading into the season.
Keon Coleman, WR, Buffalo Bills (22.1 y.o.)
Current Contract: Rookie (2024-2027) 4 yr(s) / $10,074,258
Free Agent: 2028 / UFA
When an incoming rookie WR lands with an elite QB, their dynasty value often gets inflated. That certainly feels like it was the case with Keon Coleman. Despite several red flags in his college production profile, Coleman received early second-round draft capital and was selected by the Buffalo Bills. While his game has its flaws, there is no denying his impressive size and athleticism, which make him a strong fit as a deep threat in Buffalo’s high-powered offense.
Unfortunately, being paired with Josh Allen did not lead to consistent fantasy production. Coleman finished his rookie season as the WR68, logging just three top-36 weeks. Injuries limited him to 13 games, but even when active, he failed to carve out a reliable role. He managed just one game all season with more than four receptions and turned in several weeks of abysmal production. Many expected Coleman or Dalton Kincaid to step up following the departures of Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis. Instead, the Bills leaned into a spread-it-around approach, distributing targets across a wide cast of receivers and making weekly projections difficult.
Khalil Shakir took a clear step forward and established himself as Allen’s most dependable target, earning a lucrative contract extension to stay in Buffalo. While Coleman did not live up to the hype, his rookie year was not a total loss when you look beyond the box scores. He averaged 1.55 yards per route run and a respectable 7.1 yards after the catch per reception, both encouraging signs of efficiency in a limited sample.
This offseason, the Bills moved on from Amari Cooper and added Joshua Palmer on a three-year deal. Palmer has never developed into a true difference maker, but does bring a vertical element to the offense. Last season, he posted the fifth-highest average depth of target in the league at 14.9 yards. For Coleman to take the next step, he will need to prove he deserves the X receiver role and is not outplayed by the veteran.
Buffalo’s offensive scheme, which leans on heavy personnel and a spread passing attack, presents another challenge. Coleman enters a critical second year, where consistency will be key. He was a popular first-round pick in dynasty rookie drafts, and the expectations that come with that selection have not gone away. Because of this, we are placing an achievable 2025 ultimatum on Coleman: finish as a top-35 WR. This is the lowest bar we have set in this series, but it is still a necessary benchmark if he is going to justify the value he carried last offseason.
Personally, I remain skeptical that Coleman will separate himself from the pack and emerge as a reliable fantasy contributor. Outside of Shakir, Buffalo’s receiving room looks like it could be a weekly headache for fantasy managers. If you can get anything close to the draft capital it cost to acquire Coleman, this may be the right time to cash out and reset.
That said, his combination of elite athleticism and attachment to one of the best QBs in the league still makes him worth holding in many situations. There is a world where he develops into an intriguing boom-or-bust flex option this season, but it is hard to envision him becoming the consistent difference maker many hoped for when he entered the league.
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