Welcome back to our Dynasty Ultimatums series! Over the past couple of seasons, this series has focused on players at a career crossroads, highlighting those on the verge of pivotal fantasy seasons and assessing their dynasty outlook. Looking back at last year’s article, many of the featured QBs ended up as major busts, creating a perfect sell-high window for those who acted early. Others, however, exceeded expectations and saw their dynasty value rise.
The 2024 crop included Bryce Young, Will Levis, Justin Fields, Kirk Cousins, and Jordan Love. Of that group, only Fields technically met his ultimatum by starting enough games with Pittsburgh to secure a new opportunity as the Jets’ projected starter in 2025. Young barely missed his mark but turned things around with a strong second half, rebuilding his career trajectory and boosting his value. Just not quite enough to escape this article for a second straight year.
Love was included last season because I felt he was overvalued, and his 2024 performance supported that. He battled injuries and finished as the QB17, well outside his top-10 ultimatum, averaging just 16.3 fantasy points per game. That ranked 19th in the league and was only 0.1 points ahead of Russell Wilson. As for Levis and Cousins, both lost their starting jobs and are now trending toward complete irrelevance and possibly extinction in dynasty formats.
As the 2025 NFL season approaches, it brings a host of questions about the fate of many notable players. For dynasty managers, maintaining realistic expectations for these controversial players is crucial. It can be tough to lose faith in players we once had high hopes for, but setting dynasty ultimatums can help us manage our rosters more effectively. In this article, we will explore controversial QBs entering make-or-break seasons, outlining the specific goals they must achieve to meet their current expectations.
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Bryce Young, QB, Carolina Panthers
As mentioned earlier, Bryce Young makes his second straight appearance in this series, despite a much-improved second half to the 2024 season. His rookie year was rough. Drafted first overall by the Panthers in 2023, Young entered the league with sky-high expectations, which were especially difficult to reach given his stature. He looked overwhelmed, failed to throw a TD longer than 18 yards, and finished with just 11 passing TDs. He ended the season as QB23, a disappointing debut by any measure.
Still, being the No. 1 overall pick bought him time. Despite a shaky start to his sophomore campaign, Young completely flipped the narrative after the Panthers’ Week 11 bye. Before then, he averaged just 10.6 fantasy points per game and had been benched in favor of Andy Dalton for a couple of games. But from Week 12 through Week 18, Young looked like a completely different player. During that seven-game stretch, he averaged 21.2 fantasy points per game, posted an 11:3 TD-to-INT ratio, and added five rushing TDs while averaging over 25 rushing yards per game. Among QBs with at least 100 dropbacks in that span, he ranked 7th in fantasy points per dropback, 5th in average depth of target (aDOT), and 2nd in scrambles. Much of that late-season production came in catch-up mode with a depleted defense, which undoubtedly inflated his fantasy numbers. Still, the growth was real. The question now is whether that version of Young is here to stay or if the late-season surge was a blip driven more by game script than true development.
Heading into 2025, there are genuine reasons to believe Young can deliver more consistent production. Unsatisfied with the top-end talent in their receiver room, Carolina used the No. 8 pick on Tetairoa McMillan, a big-bodied wideout with rare athleticism and WR1 upside. The hope is that pairing McMillan with a developing QB like Young can take this offense to the next level. He will join a serviceable WR room that includes Xavier Legette, Adam Thielen, Jalen Coker, and newly signed Hunter Renfrow, giving Young his deepest group of pass-catchers yet.
Young’s fantasy upside will largely depend on the help around him. He tied for last in the league with just 15 passing TDs in 2024, and while he did miss time, that number still needs a major jump. This becomes even more important if his late-season rushing surge proves unsustainable. Young is under contract through the 2027 season, but if he regresses and fails to show he is the long-term answer for Carolina, the team could be in the market for a new QB as early as next year’s draft, especially if they finish with another losing record. Because of that, Young’s dynasty ultimatum remains the same: finish as a top-15 QB in 2025.
Although he fell short of this mark last year, his second-half performance showed enough promise to believe he could hold or even increase his dynasty value heading into this season. If he builds on that momentum, he could become a serviceable starter in dynasty leagues moving forward. But if he reverts to the struggles that defined his rookie year, his days as an NFL starter may be numbered. Realistically, he is probably somewhere between those two extremes. That could be enough to keep his job, but not necessarily enough to help your dynasty roster in a meaningful way. If someone in your league believes he is a rising star, this might be the ideal time to sell while his value is still strong.
Anthony Richardson, QB, Indianapolis Colts
Anthony Richardson presents a classic fantasy dilemma. He might not be a reliable real-life QB, but his rare rushing traits give him an elite fantasy ceiling if things ever fully come together. The problem is that time may be running out. Since entering the league, Richardson has struggled with accuracy and decision-making, posting a 47.7% completion rate last season, which was the worst by any QB since Tim Tebow’s 46.5% in 2011. Health has also been a major concern. He has missed 17 of 34 career games, including four last year, and was benched twice (once voluntarily) for Joe Flacco due to poor play.
Still, Richardson flashed his rushing upside when he was active, racking up 499 rushing yards and six TDs in just 11 games. Even so, he failed to top 14 fantasy points in seven games, including four with single-digit outputs. The upside remains sky-high because of his athleticism and powerful arm. However, assuming he can suddenly fix his flaws and become a consistent fantasy force is starting to feel like wishful thinking.
Heading into 2025, there is a real chance that Richardson might not even open the season as the Colts’ starting QB. Indianapolis brought in Daniel Jones this offseason to compete for the job. While Jones has his own issues with accuracy and decision-making, he has still been more productive at the NFL level than Richardson to this point. Training camp will be crucial for Richardson to prove he deserves the starting role. Even if he wins it, Jones will be waiting in the wings, and any stumble could prompt a switch. Given Richardson’s history, it is hard to bet on him being consistent enough to hold off a challenge all season.
If Jones ends up out of the picture and Richardson locks down the starting job, the setup in Indianapolis is actually quite favorable. He will have a strong supporting cast that includes Josh Downs, Michael Pittman, Alec Pierce, rookie TE Tyler Warren, and elite RB Jonathan Taylor. The offensive line is solid as well, offering a stable foundation for a capable QB to succeed.
Per Shane Steichen – QB Anthony Richardson is dealing with a shoulder injury and will not participate in mini-camp next week. pic.twitter.com/obF7ggLAvk
— Indianapolis Colts (@Colts) June 5, 2025
Given the talent around him, Richardson’s dynasty ultimatum is simple: win and keep the starting job, and finish as a top-15 fantasy QB in 2025. There are plenty of signs that he may not have what it takes to be a long-term NFL starter. To make matters worse, he recently injured his throwing shoulder again and is currently without a timeline for return, though the team remains hopeful he will return at some point during training camp. This much uncertainty makes him a risky hold in dynasty formats. If someone in your league is willing to bet on the upside, now may be the time to move on and let someone else ride the rollercoaster. When pitching a trade, sell the dream: a 23-year-old with elite rushing upside who could become a fantasy star if it ever clicks. With any luck, selling that dream will finally end the nightmare he has been on your roster.
Trevor Lawrence, QB, Jacksonville Jaguars
Trevor Lawrence has now been in the league for four years, and yet it still feels like we do not have a clear grasp of his true value. Drafted first overall in 2021, he struggled mightily as a rookie, finishing as the QB23, but rebounded with a strong QB8 finish in 2022. He followed that with a solid QB13 performance in 2023, then took a step back in 2024 due to a mix of injuries and inconsistency, playing in just ten games. In the nine contests where he was fully active, his play resembled that of the previous year. It was respectable, but far from elite for fantasy purposes. He reached 20+ fantasy points only twice and continued to struggle with turnovers, posting an 11:7 TD-to-INT ratio. Despite the frustrating season and underwhelming start to his career, there is renewed optimism around Lawrence’s fantasy outlook heading into 2025.
This optimism largely stems from the supporting cast around him, which is the best he has had since entering the league. He will have rising star Brian Thomas Jr., versatile rookie Travis Hunter, Dyami Brown, and TE Brenton Strange at his disposal. The offensive line has been improved, and Travis Etienne remains a viable pass-catching threat out of the backfield, even after a down year. Perhaps most importantly, the Jaguars hired Liam Coen as head coach. That move could spark a much-needed offensive turnaround.
Last season, Coen helped Baker Mayfield deliver a career-best campaign in Tampa Bay, finishing as the QB4 with 4,500 passing yards, 41 total TDs, and over 370 rushing yards. While Mayfield deserves plenty of credit, it is worth considering how much of that success came from Coen’s fantasy-friendly system. Mayfield was widely written off before joining Tampa Bay two years ago. If the same offensive structure elevates Lawrence, a similar breakout may still be in play.
Given the talent around him and the expected improvement in Jacksonville’s offensive system, Lawrence’s dynasty ultimatum is to finish as a top-12 QB in 2025. That return to QB1 territory would indicate that he has the potential to be a long-term and potentially premium fantasy asset. With prototypical size, a strong arm, and underrated mobility, Lawrence has always had the tools to succeed. His career has been inconsistent so far, but the flashes of high-level play suggest a breakout year is still within reach if everything aligns. The Jaguars also have made it clear they see Lawrence as their franchise QB, evidenced by the $275 million extension he signed last offseason.
That said, I would not be overly aggressive in trying to acquire him in dynasty. Instead, I would see if his value is still depressed enough to buy low relative to his upside. On the other hand, if you already have him and another manager is excited enough about a potential breakout to pay the price as if it has already occurred, cashing in could be the smart move. But if no one is willing to meet that price, your best option might be to hold and hope 2025 is the year he finally puts it all together.
Justin Fields, QB, New York Jets
Justin Fields, like Anthony Richardson, is an elite rushing QB with tantalizing fantasy upside but an uncertain long-term dynasty outlook. And like Bryce Young, Fields makes another appearance in this article, but unlike Young, he actually delivered on his dynasty ultimatum last season. After leading the Steelers to a 4-2 start, he was surprisingly benched in favor of Russell Wilson. Still, during his starts, Fields averaged 18.9 fantasy points and 39 rushing yards per game, finishing as a QB1 in half of them.
His rushing ability has never been in doubt. Since entering the league four years ago, he has been one of the most dangerous runners at the position. The question, as always, is whether he can be a reliable passer and lead an offense consistently through the air. That concern ended his time in Chicago and then again in Pittsburgh. Now on his third team in three years, Fields will look to prove at just 26 years old that his story is far from over and that a breakout year with the New York Jets is still within reach.
While his real-life performance has drawn criticism, Fields has proven to be a valuable fantasy asset when on the field. In his sophomore campaign in 2022, he broke out as a difference-maker, finishing as the QB8 despite missing two games. That year, he set career highs with 160 carries for 1,143 rushing yards and eight rushing TDs. He remained effective on the ground the following season but was limited to just 13 games, finishing as the QB18. Passing efficiency remains the big question. Fields has never thrown for 20 TDs in a season and has struggled with turnovers, which prompted the Bears to move on and reset their offense.
That said, Fields showed clear growth as a passer last year in Pittsburgh. In just six starts, he threw for over 1,000 yards with a 5:1 TD-to-INT ratio. He also continued to flash his elite rushing ability, racking up nearly 300 yards and five TDs on the ground. That progress was enough to earn him a fresh opportunity as the projected starter for the Jets in 2025. New York cleaned house after another disappointing season, bringing in a new general manager and head coach to pair with their new QB. The coaching staff has been vocal about their belief in Fields this offseason, and the hope is that he can finally become the franchise QB the Jets have long been searching for. His rushing talent alone gives him weekly fantasy upside, but it is fair to question whether the offense has enough firepower to unlock his full potential.
The good news is he will be reunited with rising star Garrett Wilson, who has topped 1,000 receiving yards every season to begin his career, despite poor QB play. Beyond Wilson, the supporting cast is thin. Breece Hall is a strong pass-catching back, but there is only so much damage he can do on short throws. The remaining group, including Allen Lazard, Josh Reynolds, Malachi Corley, rookie Arian Smith, and rookie TE Mason Graham, is unproven at best. Still, the Jets boast a solid defense and a revamped offensive line, which should help keep Fields upright and give him the time to operate effectively.
Ultimately, Fields needs to prove he is more than just a temporary solution. His dynasty ultimatum is to finish as a top-12 QB and show the leadership and decision-making of a long-term starter. If the Jets end up with a high draft pick, they could easily look to replace him. It is on Fields to make that choice difficult. I am personally bullish on Fields heading into 2025. His rushing upside alone gives him a path to QB1 production at a discounted dynasty price. I would be looking to buy low with the belief that he can deliver immediate value and possibly secure a long-term future with the Jets and on your dynasty roster. On the other hand, if you are managing a rebuilding team and have doubts about his long-term outlook, it might be wise to explore a potential sell-high window during the season while his value is elevated.
Sam Darnold, QB, Seattle Seahawks
Few storylines scream “make-or-break season” louder than this: a journeyman QB who miraculously revived his career, only to be replaced by an unproven prospect with zero NFL experience. Unfortunately, this is the harsh reality for Sam Darnold.
Once viewed as the Jets’ long-awaited savior, Darnold’s career quickly went off track. After bouncing around the league, he landed in Minnesota last season with modest expectations. When the Vikings moved on from Kirk Cousins and J.J. McCarthy was sidelined with an injury, Darnold stepped in and made the most of his opportunity.
He led Minnesota to a 14–3 record and looked like a completely different QB. From a fantasy perspective, he was a surprise success, finishing as the QB9 with career highs in passing yards (4,319) and TDs (35). He had eight top-10 weekly finishes and threw three or more TDs in six games. While Darnold earned plenty of praise, the context matters. HC Kevin O’Connell runs one of the most QB-friendly systems in the league, and Darnold had elite weapons around him. Justin Jefferson led the way with over 1,500 receiving yards and 10 TDs, continuing to prove why he is considered the top WR in the NFL.
Still, Darnold’s final two performances left a sour taste. In a must-win Week 17 matchup against the Lions, he completed just 44% of his passes for 166 yards and failed to score. He followed that up with a rough outing in the Wild Card round, taking nine sacks in a frustrating loss that ended Minnesota’s season. Despite the team’s early success, the Vikings made the decision to move forward with McCarthy heading into 2025. That sent Darnold looking for a new opportunity, which he found in Seattle, where he signed a three-year, $100.5 million deal. While the contract looks impressive, there are built-in outs that give the Seahawks flexibility if things do not go as planned.
Once again, Darnold enters the season with something to prove and a young challenger waiting in the wings. After moving on from Geno Smith and replacing him with Darnold, Seattle selected Jalen Milroe in the third round of the draft. Milroe is a dual-threat QB who found success at the University of Alabama and could push for playing time if Darnold struggles. The situation is similar to what happened in Atlanta last year, when Michael Penix replaced Kirk Cousins during a rough stretch and his team never looked back.
For Darnold to stick in Seattle, it starts with his supporting cast. Jaxon Smith-Njigba broke out last year and looks like one of the best young receivers in the league. Veteran Cooper Kupp may have lost a step, but he still has a knack for finding space and coming through when it matters. Out of the backfield, Kenneth Walker and Zach Charbonnet form a dangerous rushing tandem and contribute in the passing game as well. Seattle is expected to lean more heavily on the run this season, which might cap Darnold’s fantasy upside some weeks. However, if the ground game is effective, it could also help protect his job.
One area where Darnold quietly thrived last season was his deep passing. He had the fifth-highest average target depth at 8.9 yards, completed 66.2% of his passes overall, and led the league in completion percentage (46.7) and TDs (9) on throws of 20+ yards. That skill set could be a great fit in Klint Kubiak’s offense, which tends to push the ball downfield. The challenge is that Seattle lacks a true vertical threat. Both Smith-Njigba and Kupp do most of their damage in the slot, and Kupp no longer has the speed he once did. For Darnold’s deep ball to remain a strength, Smith-Njigba will need to expand his game in that area. Seattle’s offensive line is also noticeably weaker than Minnesota’s, and the team did little to improve it this offseason. That could be a major concern, as it may limit Darnold’s time to operate in the pocket and potentially cause him to revert to the bad habits he exhibited in the past under pressure.
The pressure on Darnold is obvious. The Seahawks do not have to commit to him beyond this season, and his supporting cast is not as strong as the one he had in Minnesota. Due to this, his ultimatum is to finish as a top-15 QB to convince managers and his team that he is a legitimate long-term option. If you are rostering him, this might be the right time to shop him to a QB-needy team. On the flip side, if you already have two reliable starters, Darnold is still just 28 and could be a worthwhile stash as a cheap insurance policy. He does not project as a reliable QB2 in superflex formats, but he still holds solid value as a depth option, better suited for a QB3 or QB4 role. The 2025 season will be pivotal in shaping his long-term outlook. Now it is up to Darnold to prove that last year’s performance was not a total fluke.
from Fantasy Footballers Podcast https://ift.tt/7roJYc5
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