Welcome back to the Dynasty Range of Outcomes series!
Similar to previous off-seasons, this article will take a deeper look at this year’s RB class. By utilizing historical prospect data, our goal is to identify the players who are more likely to break out in the NFL. In addition, by finding RBs with similar draft capital and production, we can project a player’s potential trajectory as they enter the NFL.
To quickly recap, we will keep the analysis simple by using four data points to find players that most resemble the 2025 rookie class:
- Draft Capital: Draft capital is the most predictive metric. Players selected earlier in the NFL draft are more likely to receive significant playing time and become valuable assets for dynasty managers. Draft capital also represents a team’s investment in a player, which is why day three RBs are often easily replaced.
- Career Production: While there are a few exceptions, players who dominate in college usually produce at the NFL level. In fact, we consistently see higher hit rates when we control the sample size for draft capital and production. For this analysis, we will use two of the most predictive college metrics: Receiving Yards per Team Pass Attempt (WRs and TEs) and Scrimmage Yards per Team Play (RBs). These two metrics account for usage and efficiency relative to each team’s offense. To find players with similar production profiles, our analysis will apply a 15% threshold in both directions.
- Declare Status: Players entering the league within three years of graduating from high school are classified as early declare prospects. Why does this matter? Historically, early declare prospects have averaged higher breakout rates in the NFL. This is likely because the most talented prospects enter the league as soon as they are eligible, having already achieved significant success at the collegiate level.
- Weight: This data point has one of the lowest correlations to fantasy production. However, it makes sense to filter by weight to avoid comparing De’Von Achane to someone like Derrick Henry, who is over 50 pounds heavier. In this analysis, we will apply a five to ten-pound threshold in both directions to identify players with similar body types.
For a more detailed breakdown of these metrics, check out our series primer. If you have any questions, feel free to reach out on Twitter @FF_MarvinE. Let’s dive into the 2025 RB class!
Ashton Jeanty is the consensus RB1 of the 2025 class after a dominant career at Boise State. While his 2024 season stands out, his holistic production profile is what sets him apart and makes him one of the most elite prospects in recent history. Even before last season, Jeanty was already on track to be the RB1 of this year’s draft, producing a 98th percentile season as a Sophomore in 2023. And even after setting the bar extremely high, Jeanty managed to set career-highs in 2024, finishing with the most productive season (99.9th percentile) by a drafted RB since 2013. To no surprise, Jeanty was selected with the sixth overall pick of the NFL draft, joining a Raiders team in desperate need of talent at the RB position. Furthermore, his draft capital places him among some of the most elite prospects in recent history. As you can see above, Jeanty enters the league with a similar profile as Christian McCaffrey and Bijan Robinson, ranking in the 98th percentile in my rookie model. Assuming he remains healthy, we can expect him to be an immediate difference-maker for dynasty managers with the potential to produce RB1 numbers right out of the gate.
While Jeanty is the unquestioned 1.01, Omarion Hampton should arguably be the second overall pick in rookie drafts. Why should you feel confident in Hampton’s dynasty outlook? Early declare RBs drafted in the first round with positive experience-adjusted production have averaged a 100% NFL hit rate since 2013. Hampton joins that elite group, which includes prospects such as Todd Gurley, Christian McCaffrey, Saquon Barkley, and Ezekiel Elliott. Coincidentally, Elliott is the closest (and only) comparable player for Hampton when we adjust for weight, production, and draft capital. However, if we remove “declare status” as a filter, players like Melvin Gordon and Travis Etienne would also be included in that list. In short, Hampton may not be as accomplished as Jeanty. However, with his combination of top-tier production and first-round capital, he should be all but locked in as a dynasty RB1 for the foreseeable future. Especially in a run-heavy offense like the Chargers, Hampton should receive plenty of opportunities to produce in his rookie season.
While day-two prospects have slightly lower hit rates than those drafted on day one, RBs with positive experience-adjusted production still maintain a 75% hit rate despite the lower draft capital. Because of that, Quinshon Judkins‘ dynasty outlook holds plenty of upside after three productive seasons with Ole Miss and Ohio State. And even though his efficiency tapered off slightly in his final two campaigns, we should not forget that Judkins had one of the most productive true freshman seasons (97th percentile) in recent history. As a result, his list of historical comps is mostly encouraging, headlined by players like Joe Mixon, Le’Veon Bell, D’Andre Swift, and Kenneth Walker. However, this list is far from perfect, as Cam Akers and Derrius Guice never broke out in the NFL due to injuries. Even T.J. Yeldon was only fantasy-relevant for one season before being replaced by Leonard Fournette later in his career. Regardless, Judkins should receive every opportunity to produce as the Browns continue to search for their franchise QB. Assuming he can take advantage of those opportunities, I would not be shocked to see him valued as a top 10 dynasty RB by the end of the season.
Surprisingly, Kaleb Johnson fell to the third round of the NFL draft, joining a Steelers team that just lost Najee Harris in free agency. Despite being the sixth RB selected in this class, Johnson remains one of my favorite picks in dynasty drafts after a productive career at Iowa. His 2024 campaign ultimately propelled his draft stock, producing a 97th percentile Junior season and accounting for nearly 52% of the Hawkeyes’ entire offensive production. Keep in mind, day two RBs with positive experience-adjusted production typically break out at a 75% rate. As a result, dynasty managers should feel confident in Johnson’s outlook despite falling to the third round. As for his historical comps, D’Onta Foreman likely represents the lower end of his range of outcomes, only producing flex-level production and never truly breaking out in the league. On a positive note, Johnson’s profile is much closer to David Montgomery’s, especially when we look at experience-adjusted production. If Johnson can replicate Montgomery’s trajectory, we could be looking at multiple top-20 seasons to start his career. And given the Steelers’ heavy reliance on the running game (26th in Pass Rate Over Expected), I would not be shocked to see Johnson break out in his rookie campaign.
At first glance, it might come as a surprise that R.J. Harvey Jr.‘s historical comps are headlined by three RBs who have not broken out in the NFL. However, even though Harvey demonstrated strong production in his final two seasons, we must consider his age. Because he was an older prospect, his production holds significantly less weight compared to RBs who produced at 18 and 19 years old. As a result, Harvey enters the league with one of the lowest experience-adjusted production scores by a day-two RB, ranking in the 38th percentile since 2013. Could he be the outlier among the group mentioned above? It is entirely possible, given that Harvey started his collegiate career as a QB and then dealt with an ACL injury in his junior season, which further delayed his opportunity to emerge as UCF’s lead RB. On a positive note, Harvey finds himself in an outstanding landing spot as the Denver Broncos’ backfield is wide open for the taking. With a clear path to becoming the Broncos’ RB1, Harvey should have every opportunity to start his career as a top-20 fantasy RB for dynasty managers. Regardless, we likely need to manage our expectations as we have yet to see a player with Harvey’s profile break over the last decade.
While dynasty managers are always eager to find the next Kyren Williams or Chase Brown, we have to keep in mind that day-three RBs rarely break out in the NFL. Among all day-three RBs drafted since 2013, only 13.6% have produced an RB2 season (top 24) in the NFL. We have seen higher hit rates (18.5%) among RBs with positive-experience adjusted production, which is partially why Devin Neal remains one of my favorite prospects in this year’s draft. In fact, he ranks third in this class in experience-adjusted production, behind only Ashton Jeanty and Omarion Hampton. While that does set him apart among other day-three prospects, we still need to temper our expectations, considering he was only drafted in the sixth round. In addition, he also joins a Saints team that recently extended Alvin Kamara through the 2026 season, suggesting that Neal’s role could be minimal to start his career. However, considering Kamara’s age, Neal should be stashed in most dynasty leagues as he could eventually emerge as the Saints’ primary backup, ahead of Kendre Miller and Clyde Edwards-Helaire.
Due to his landing spot, Jaydon Blue’s ADP has been on the rise after the NFL draft. After all, the Cowboys have an opening at RB1, which could lead to immediate opportunities for Blue. However, keep in mind that they also signed Javonte Williams and Miles Sanders. And while neither of them is elite at this point in their careers, I would not be shocked if this backfield operated as a committee for the 2025 season. In addition, Blue’s draft profile leaves much to be desired after playing behind Bijan Robinson, Roschon Johnson, and Jonathon Brooks to start his career. Even after they all declared for the NFL draft, Blue was still second on the team in RB opportunities behind Tre Wisner last season. For context, he finished with only a 1.04 Scrimmage Yards per Team Play in 2024, which would rank in the 38th percentile among drafted prospects since 2013. As a result, I am far less excited about Blue’s potential as I expect the Cowboys to rely on their passing game and invest in a more talented RB (with premium draft capital) in the 2026 draft.
If I were to invest in a day-three RB, it would likely be Cam Skattebo. Skattebo was selected in the middle of the fourth round, joining a Giants team that has very little invested at the RB position. Unlike Jaydon Blue, Skattebo finished his career with a couple of productive campaigns, accounting for over 38% of Arizona State’s offensive production. In addition, Skattebo also possesses an intriguing receiving skillset, leading the 2025 class in receiving yards market share at 11.2%. As a result, with a combination of solid production and fourth-round capital, Skattebo’s list of historical comps provides some hope that he could emerge in the NFL. After all, Chuba Hubbard finished last season as an RB1 in points per game. Even Javorius Allen was a flex-level RB to start his NFL career. However, there also remains the possibility that Skattebo never breaks out, as we have seen with multiple fourth-round prospects in recent history (12.2% hit rate). Regardless, even though Skattebo will enter the league with a wider range of outcomes, I am still intrigued by his upside. And considering the Giants traded up to select him, I would not be shocked if Skattebo finished the season as the Giants’ RB1, ahead of both Tyrone Tracy and Devin Singletary.
from Fantasy Footballers Podcast https://ift.tt/idv1Tlj
No comments: