Betting on the NFL is becoming increasingly more difficult as the years go by and as the markets adjust. However, one market that remains beatable is player props, specifically season long player props. Over the last two years, we’ve gone 23-15 in this market, focusing primarily on taking unders. There’s no doubt that across a multiple year sample, unders are going to hit at a much higher rate than overs when trying to project what might happen over the course of a full season. Why is that? There’s many things that can go wrong for a player across an 18-week regular season.
Here are a few:
- Injuries happen in the NFL – that’s just a fact, especially at the RB position. We’ll be searching for unders for backs given that it’s rare a back plays all 17 games. Most will miss 2-3 at a minimum based on historical numbers.
- Teammates missing time – If a starting QB goes down, that entire offense is likely to suffer, especially a WR, who’s target quality could be negatively impacted. Similarly, if one or multiple starting offensive linemen go down, the running back’s efficiency could suffer.
- Coaching and scheme change – These can change a player’s usage (targets, carries, etc.)
For an over to hit on a season long outlook, so much has to go right. No doubt, unders are the way to go if you’re looking to profit in this market. Be sure to line shop for the best odds if you have access to multiple books to always grab the best number and odds!
For this article, I typically look at Andy, Mike and Jason’s Premium Projections in the Ultimate Draft Kit and compared them to the Vegas odds then added some context around the projection and the associated bet. We’re releasing this article earlier than usual, so we don’t have full projections available until June 1. Once those projections are available in the UDK, we’ll have a much larger menu of bets and data to support those wagers. Be sure to bookmark this page and check back frequently as I’ll be adding more throughout the offseason.
In addition, be sure to join the #Props channel in Discord so you can be notified as soon as we take a bet, ensuring you get the best line. Best of luck with all your wagers!
*Lines accurate at time of publishing*
1. Saquon Barkley U1,525.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
Sportsbook: Bet365, U1,500.5 on DraftKings (-110)
Date: 5/9/24
Analysis: If there’s any back who’s capable of beating this line, it’s the 2024 Offensive Player of the Year. That said, there’s a lot that needs to go right for Barkley to go over this line in 2025 and repeat his insanely efficient campaign a year ago. From 2020 to 2023, there have been 10 RBs who have logged 330+ touches in a season and every one of those RBs saw a decline of at least 45 touches the following season. In addition, only two of those backs played a full season the year after this heavy of a workload. There’s a good chance Barkley’s volume comes down a bit in 2025 after a historic workload a year ago. Furthermore, since 2010, only one RB has run for 1,500+ yards in back-to-back seasons: Derrick Henry. Could he beat this number? Of course, but a lot has to go right for Saquon to beat this number again, and history is not on his side. We’ll side with the under. For more context on Saquon’s historic 2024 campaign, be sure to check out Andy’s notes on this episode of The Fantasy Footballers.
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