The 2025 NFL Draft is just a couple of days away! The first round kicks off on Thursday, April 24, and things are starting to crystalize in terms of what Round 1 might look like after the first 32 names are called. Because betting on the NFL Draft is an information-based market, it can be extremely valuable to source Big Boards and mock drafts from the top NFL Draft scouts and companies around the industry. While that’s one piece of the equation, the betting market can also be an indicator of the top 32 picks each year, so I do use it as part of my process.
In this mock draft, I used betting odds from various sportsbooks as well as information from around the league to try to figure out what the first round might look like on Thursday night. If you’re interested in our process and official plays, be sure to check out our 2025 NFL Draft Props article and listen to The Fantasy Footballers DFS and Betting Podcast, which is out every Friday. Without further ado, Mock 2.0 is live! You can see what’s changed over the last few weeks by checking out my Mock 1.0.
*Odds accurate at time of publishing*
1. Tennessee Titans – QB Cam Ward
Betting Market: Number 1 Overall Pick: Ward (-20000)
Analysis: The Titans have not improved their QB room whatsoever in free agency. At this point, I’d be shocked if Ward is not the pick for Tennessee as the Will Levis “era” comes to a close.
2. Cleveland Browns – CB/WR Travis Hunter
Betting Market: Number 2 Overall Pick: Hunter (-900)
Analysis: All signs are pointing to Cleveland passing on QB and taking one of Hunter or Abdul Carter. The betting markets are essentially viewing this pick as a “lock” that the Heisman Trophy winner will be the pick. Cleveland could use help at both WR and CB.
3. New York Giants – EDGE Abdul Carter
Betting Market: Number 3 Overall Pick: Carter (-480)
Analysis: Perhaps ownership steps in here and forces a QB selection. The G Men have been connected to Shedeur Sanders going back to last football season, but Sanders’ stock appears to be falling. Carter is considered a top-two player in this class, and the Giants need to hit on this pick to help them win games in 2025 if GM Joe Schoen and HC Brian Daboll want to save their job. I expect them to take either Hunter or Carter, whichever is available here.
4. New England Patriots – OL Will Campbell
Betting Market: Number 4 Overall Pick: Carter (-450)
Analysis: I think the betting market is a bit overconfident here in the Campbell placement, but the Patriots front office is on record talking about building through the trenches, and Campbell reportedly has supporters inside the building. Drake Maye’s offensive line was a complete disaster last year, and Campbell would be an immediate upgrade on their LT/LG situation.
5. Jacksonville Jaguars – RB Ashton Jeanty
Betting Market: Number 5 Overall Pick: Jeanty (-125)
Analysis: I personally would be confused with new GM James Gladstone using the 5th overall pick on an RB, given his history with the Rams, who have consistently found gems at the skill position later in the draft. Additionally, Liam Cohen comes over from Tampa, who just hit on Bucky Irving on Day 3 last year, and in a deep RB class, you would think they can find a starting RB a bit later. That said, I’m just a nerd in my mom’s basement, and there’s been a consistent drumbeat on Jeanty to Jacksonville from several big-time NFL reporters (Schrager, Russini, Schefter, etc.). I’ll follow the herd here begrudgingly, especially considering Jeanty is a consensus top-five to seven overall player in the draft on big boards.
6. Las Vegas Raiders – OL Armand Membou
Betting Market: Number 6 Overall Pick: Membou (+240)
Analysis: I noted this in my first mock, but GM John Spytek has historically built through the trenches, so while I do think this pick could be Jeanty and wouldn’t be surprised by that pick, I see Sptyek sticking to his roots and building up the trenches. Here’s what I wrote in my Mock 1.0: “GM John Spytek comes over from Tampa, where he was the VP of player personnel in 2021 and 2022 and the assistant GM in 2023 and 2024. During those four seasons, Tampa had three first-round picks, and they used their pick on a Center, DT, and Outside LB/Edge player.” Membou, Campbell if he falls, Mason Graham, Kelvin Banks or even Jalon Walker could be the pick here.
7. New York Jets – DT Mason Graham
Betting Market: Number 7 Overall Pick: Graham (+650)
Analysis: Mason Graham has been the chalk 5th pick for months, but if he does drop a couple of spots, I could see Aaron Glenn taking him to further bolster the defensive side of the ball. Glenn, after all, is a defensive-minded head coach, and this team’s game plan to win games is most likely going to be ball control and great defense, given the state of their roster. Graham’s Top30 visits have been with LV, NYJ, NO, and NE…in other words, the entire league seems to be thinking Graham doesn’t make it out of the top-10. Per MockDraftDatabase history…Since 2018, every single DL/DT ranked inside the top-10 of the final consensus was picked inside the top-10.
8. Carolina Panthers – LB/EDGE Jalon Walker
Betting Market: Number 8 Overall Pick: Walker (+150)
Analysis: This pick has been chalk for weeks, but it makes too much sense to disagree with it. The Panthers were bottom-five in just about every single defensive category last season. Walker is a consensus top-10 player in this class and the EDGE2 behind Abdul Carter. If Walker is off the board, I see Carolina taking Walker’s teammate, Mykel Williams, or TE Tyler Warren.
9. New Orleans Saints – TE Tyler Warren
Betting Market: Number 9 overall pick: Warren (+600)
Analysis: QB has been the favorite here for weeks, but now the general public seems to be catching up to what Nick Underhill has been suggesting for weeks – NO is more likely to take a QB in Round 2 than at 9th overall. At this pick, they’re able to get best player available and then come back for a QB later. Underhill and others close to New Orleans have indicated Warren is a target for Kellen Moore, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Saints go with an OL or EDGE defender. In alternative markets, Warren is (-175) to be a top-10 pick on FanDuel with teams like the Jets, Panthers, and Bears also in play to take the PSU tight end.
10. Chicago Bears – OL Kelvin Banks Jr.
Betting Market: Banks to be a Top-10 Pick (-145)
Analysis: Banks could go as high as 6th overall in my opinion, but there’s a ton of buzz around the Texas offensive lineman screaming up draft boards. I’m personally hoping he goes 7th to NYJ for our wallets, but Banks is also in play at picks 9-13. The Bears did invest a ton of money into the O-line in free agency, but LT Braxton Jones is a free agent after 2025, and he’s not exactly a locked-in top-tier option.
11. San Francisco 49ers – DT Walter Nolen
Betting Market: Position of 49ers First Position Drafted: DL/EDGE (+160)
Analysis: Nolen’s draft slot is extremely wide – NFL evaluators think his talent is ~top-15 in this class, but there’s some off-the-field/motivation question marks. As a result, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him slide to the late teens or 20s. That said, Nolen fits what the 49ers have drafted historically, and he fills a big need. I could also see the Niners going OL, CB, or EDGE.
12. Dallas Cowboys – WR Matthew Golden
Betting Market: Position of Cowboys First Position Drafted: WR (-150)
Analysis: Dallas is in desperate need of a legit WR2 option behind CeeDee Lamb. I’m not sure who they have higher on their board between Tet McMill and Golden, but Golden’s 4.29 40-yard dash is something that I keep coming back to…NFL teams generally overvalue speed at the WR position, and Golden is the ‘flashier’ pick for Jerry Jones. Jane Slater recently noted Golden is on the short list for Dallas, for what it’s worth.
13. Miami Dolphins – S Malaki Starks
Betting Market: Position of Dolphins First Position Drafted: Safety (+750)
Analysis: Teams like Miami are really tough for mocks because they have needs everywhere. OL, DL, CB, and even Safety are at the top of the list. Based on the way the board fell, I decided to go with Starks here, but I honestly don’t feel confident in that. Worth noting, they have met with him multiple times.
14. Indianapolis Colts – OL Grey Zabel
Betting Market: Position of Colts First Position Drafted: OL (+300)
Analysis: I wouldn’t be shocked at all if this is Tyler Warren or Colston Loveland, but I just GM Chris Ballard has historically prioritized experienced players in college and those that test incredibly well (9+ RAS). Loveland didn’t test at all because of his shoulder surgery, so I’m fading the chalk in this mock and going with interior offensive line. It’s a sneaky need, and Zabel’s 9.48 fits Ballard’s athletic testing thresholds.
15. Atlanta Falcons – EDGE Mykel Williams
Betting Market: Position of Falcons First Position Drafted: DL/EDGE (-270)
Analysis: I could see Williams going as high as 8th overall, but in this specific exercise, he falls to 15th with Atlanta, who needs an EDGE rusher like Kyle Borg needs a spreadsheet to play fantasy football. If Williams goes higher than 15, I think the pick will be Mike Green. Either way, the betting markets are heavily leaning toward Atlanta finally taking an EDGE defender, and GM Terry Fontenot has historically invested in young players from P5 schools. Williams checks both of those boxes.
16. Arizona Cardinals – CB Will Johnson
Betting Market: Will Johnson Draft Position O/U: 17.5
Analysis: The Cardinals could certainly go with an offensive lineman or a defensive lineman, but they did just invest a ton of money into Josh Sweat and signed Calais Campbell. For this exercise, they continue to improve the defense under Jonathan Gannon by taking a sliding Will Johnson. We bet Johnson O11.5 a few weeks ago, potentially forecasting this scenario. Now, the books seem to be indicating this late teens range is in play for the Michigan corner.
17. Cincinnati Bengals – DT Derrick Harmon
Betting Market: Position of Bengals First Position Drafted: DL/EDGE (-170)
Analysis: Harmon reportedly has a medical ‘red flag’ that’s an apparent shoulder injury. I have no idea how the Bengals are evaluating that specific situation or injury, but Bengals ball knower, Joe Goodberry has indicated guys like Walter Nolen or Harmon would be a good fit. The Bengals really need to improve the defensive side of the ball if they want to get back to the Super Bowl.
18. Seattle Seahawks – WR Tetairoa McMillan
Betting Market: Position of Seahawks First Position Drafted: WR (+390)
Analysis: The Seahawks desperately need to improve their offensive line, so I definitely think Zabel is the pick if he falls to 18. Perhaps Tyler Booker fits what Seattle is looking for here, but the Seahawks could certainly use a legit WR3 option despite signing Cooper Kupp in free agency. I know there’s mixed opinions on TMac, but he’s the consensus WR1 based on Big Board Rankings, and he would be a true big-bodied X receiver for the Seahawks, which pairs nicely with the undersized guys like JSN and Kupp. Worth noting, TMac did do a T30 visit with the Seahawks.
19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – EDGE Donovan Ezeiruaku
Betting Market: Position of Bucs First Position Drafted: DL/EDGE (+120)
Analysis: This is admittedly a bit early for Ezeieraku based on consensus mocks. I really like the fit with Jihaad Campbell, but Campbell is recovering from shoulder surgery and, as a result, could slide a bit, potentially into the late 20s. The Bucs need corner help too, but this is a weak-ish corner class at the top, and Todd Bowles is never going to turn down someone who can get after the passer.
20. Denver Broncos – RB TreVeyon Henderson
Betting Market: Position of Broncos First Position Drafted: RB (-150)
Analysis: It’s impossible not to mock Hampton to the Broncos. I get it, and I do think Hampton is in play, obviously. But when I think about the fit in Sean Peyton’s system, I personally think Henderson is a better fit to fill the ‘joker’ role than Hampton. Perhaps this is fancy play syndrome from yours truly, but whenever a singular player is mocked 90+% of the time to a specific team, things rarely go that way. Henderson would be a massive upgrade on the RB room Sean Payton had last year.
21. Pittsburgh Steelers – QB Jaxson Dart
Betting Market: Position of Steelers First Position Drafted: QB (+170)
Analysis: The Steelers not having a second-round pick really complicates the “Oh just wait til Day 2 and take a QB” thing…and well, Aaron Rodgers, he complicates everything. Gerry Dulac reported that the Steelers do have a first-round grade on Dart, while there have been mixed reviews on Shedeur Sanders’ meeting with Pittsburgh. For this exercise, I’m going with Dart, though I don’t feel super confident in this placement. On Tuesday, GM Omar Khan told reporters, “We go to camp with four quarterbacks. Right now, we have two on the roster. All options are on the table on how we acquire those last two.” Without a second-round pick, their options seem to be: 1) Take one at 21st overall, 2) Hope Aaron Rodgers doesn’t retire, and/or 3) Take multiple late stabs at QB and pray it works out.
22. Los Angeles Chargers – DT Kenneth Grant
Betting Market: Position of Chargers First Position Drafted: DL/EDGE (+130)
Analysis: A Michigan player mocked to Harbaugh? Drink! In all seriousness, this is a great fit in the Chargers’ defensive system, and Grant is considered one of the best DTs in this class with a Consensus Big Board Ranking of 23. Good enough for me.
23. Green Bay Packers – WR Emeka Egbuka
Betting Market: Position of Packers First Position Drafted: WR (+500)
Analysis: I know a lot of people are going to suggest that the Packers don’t take WRs in Round 1, but they’ve done a considerable amount of work on each of the top three WR prospects in this class. I believe they’ve got TMac highest on their board, but with him already gone, Egbuka is the pick.
24. Minnesota Vikings – CB Jahdae Barron
Betting Market: Position of Vikings First Drafted Player: CB (+180)
Analysis: Barron is much higher than this on consensus boards, but he’s a fifth-year player who’s kind of in no man’s land. He’s not considered a true #1 boundary corner and is more of a nickel/hybrid corner. Those types of archetypes generally slip a little bit historically…think Cooper DeJean or Brian Branch. A few weeks ago, Daniel Jeremiah said (I’m paraphrasing) that guys like Barron generally are available in the 20s, and the Vikings could use some help in the secondary after losing a few guys in free agency.
25. Houston Texans – OL Tyler Booker
Betting Market: Position Texans First Position Drafted: OL (-320)
Analysis: I’m not sure Tyler Booker makes it to 25, and there’s been plenty of rumblings that Houston will be aggressive in moving up to get an offensive lineman they covet. Booker makes a ton of sense to help overhaul the O-line with the team now seemingly focusing on high-character guys. Booker’s interviews and character reviews are glowing.
26. Los Angeles Rams – TE Colston Loveland
Betting Market: Position Rams First Position Drafted: TE (+550)
Analysis: Big time caveat here…I do not think that Loveland lasts til pick 26. But mock drafts are tough, and predicting trades is nearly impossible. That said, I do believe the Rams will be trying to get up into the teens to secure Loveland if the opportunity presents itself. Entering the off-season, the two needs reported by trusted beat Jourdan Rodrique were 1) TE & 2) WR. Obviously, they signed Davante Adams, so TE is squarely in play. Dianna Russini said this in her Wednesday morning column: “Expect the Rams to once again show interest in a tight end in the first round. Last year, Los Angeles tried — and failed — to move up to select Brock Bowers. I’m told Sean McVay and Les Snead could once again try to move up to get their guy.”
27. Baltimore Ravens – S Nick Emmanwori
Betting Market: Position Ravens First Position Drafted: Safety (+600)
Analysis: The Ravens are in a great position to just let the board come to them. In this mock, the Ravens are able to land the Emmanwori, which would allow Kyle Hamilton to be used as a true chess piece on the defensive side of the ball. The Ravens have some impending free agents in the secondary in 2026.
28. Detroit Lions – LB Jihaad Campbell
Betting Market: Jihaad Campbell Draft Position O/U: 19.5
Analysis: This is definitely later than usual for Campbell, but Tony Pauline wrote on Wednesday morning that Campbell could fall out of Round 1 due to medical concerns on his shoulder. If he does slip into the 28-32 range, I could see the Lions taking a ‘best player available’ approach and grabbing Campbell to help give them more juice off the edge.
29. Washington Commanders – RB Omarion Hampton
Betting Market: Omarion Hampton Draft Position O/U: 20.5
Analysis: It feels like Denver or bust for Hampton. If he makes it past DEN & PIT, Hampton could fall to the late 20s with an NFL team opting for best player available. I do believe the Commanders are strongly considering edge defenders with this pick, but Hampton is (-1500) to be a first-round pick, so I wanted to be sure I got him in here somewhere. The Commanders could certainly address RB later on, but it is worth noting that they don’t have a single RB under contract beyond 2025.
30. Buffalo Bills – CB Maxwell Hairston
Betting Market: Position of Bills First Position Drafted: CB (+220)
Analysis: The Bills have done a ton of work on the corners in this class, meeting with multiple corners throughout the process. This could very well be Trey Amos, but based on the fact that Hairston was a late add to the list of NFL Draft attendees in Green Bay, I’ll roll with the Kentucky corner.
31. Kansas City Chiefs – OL Josh Conerly
Betting Market: Position of Chiefs First Position Drafted: OL (-180)
Analysis: The Chiefs’ O-line issues were exposed in a big way with the Super Bowl loss to the Eagles. As a result, I could definitely see them taking someone like Josh Simmons or Conerly in the back of the first round if either is available. I don’t have a strong read on which player is preferred by KC, so I opted for Conerly given the injury concerns on Simmons’ knee.
32. Philadelphia Eagles – EDGE Shermar Stewart
Betting Market: Position of Eagles First Position Drafted: DL/EDGE (+110)
Analysis: The Eagles lost Josh Sweat and Milton Williams in free agency, and Howie Roseman has historically built through the trenches. I don’t have a strong read on Stewart’s direct connection to Philly, but if he does fall this far, I suspect they’ll strongly consider either Stewart or his teammate, Nic Scourton.
Players Who Just Missed the Cut:
- QB Shedeur Sanders
- QB Jalen Milroe
- WR Luther Burden
- TE Mason Taylor
- EDGE Mike Green
- EDGE James Pierce Jr.
- EDGE Nic Scourton
- CB Trey Amos
- OL Donovan Jackson
- OT Josh Simmons
from Fantasy Footballers Podcast https://ift.tt/u8xz9J7
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