Welcome to the Expected Points & Opportunity article for Week 18!
In this article, we will use my Expected Fantasy Points model to highlight the most valuable players at each position. Naturally, volume matters tremendously for fantasy football. However, it is important to remember that not every opportunity is created equal and that a player’s value will vary based on their usage and their team’s offensive ecosystem. Expected Fantasy Points will take those variables into account to quantify each player’s projected fantasy value based on the down, distance, depth, and location of their opportunities.
The key metrics used in this article are:
- Expected Fantasy Points (or xFP): The average (or expected) fantasy value of a player’s opportunities. This metric is synonymous with volume.
- Fantasy Points Over Expected (FPOE): The difference between a player’s actual fantasy production and their Expected Fantasy Points. This metric is synonymous with efficiency and is subject to regression week over week.
What do these metrics tell us?
- My model analyzes fantasy production in terms of volume (xFP) and efficiency (FPOE).
- Players with high xFP are more likely to produce consistently, while players who rely too heavily on FPOE may experience volatility in their production. In other words, we want to target players that rank highly in xFP.
- xFP is by far the more stable and predictive metric. However, it is not a ranking system. It is only one part of the equation and should be used in conjunction with other metrics for a holistic view.
- While I caution investing in players who rely on FPOE, I would NOT avoid them entirely. Players who depend on efficiency simply have a higher range of outcomes. In other words, these players can simultaneously raise the ceiling and lower the floor of your DFS lineups.
If you are newer to this series, be sure to check out my full series primer where I break down my Expected Fantasy Points model in more detail. The full version of this article is available only in the DFS Pass.
If you have any additional questions, feel free to reach out on Bluesky @MarvinJE or Twitter @FF_MarvinE.
RUNNING BACKS
- Even when the Packers struggle on offense, Josh Jacobs still finds a way to produce for fantasy managers. That was evident in Week 17 when he still finished as a top-15 running back despite Jordan Love’s inefficient performance. A significant reason for that is their continued focus on the running game, especially in neutral situations. Through 17 weeks, the Packers are the fifth-most run-heavy team, averaging a -7.7 Pass Rate Over Expected (PROE). Especially near the end zone, Green Bay is averaging the eighth-lowest PROE, leaning heavily on Jacobs when they find themselves within 10 yards of scoring. With the potential to improve their seeding, the Packers will likely still play their starters in Week 18 as they face a Bears defense that has allowed the sixth-highest EPA per Play (0.06) and fourth-highest fantasy points per game (25.3) to running backs over the last six weeks. As a result, I expect another RB1 performance from Jacobs as he remains the focal point of the Packers’ offense.
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