Welcome to the 16th Red Zone Report of 2024, where I dive into the important stats and information you need to know from 20 yards and in. The second round of the playoffs is nearly over, and an action-packed week of fantasy championship football awaits us starting Wednesday. Let’s get into some interesting players and trends from the 14 games that have already concluded this week.
Check out the Red Zone Report tool as part of the Ultimate Draft Kit to look at every player’s usage in the red zone, ten-zone, and five-zone.
Let’s begin by taking a look at efficiency in and out of the red zone.
Over the course of the season, it has become more apparent that efficiency in the red zone has a positive correlation with efficiency out of the red zone. While this makes intuitive sense, there are also a few teams that violate this thinking. The Cowboys seem to be one of the biggest violators, having solid efficiency out of the red zone, but struggling very much once inside the 20-yard line. Tonight’s matchup will feature two teams from opposite sides of the spectrum: a strong, efficient offense from Green Bay and a weaker, banged-up offense from New Orleans. This game will determine many crucial fantasy matchups, sending teams into the championship and others to Cancun. Let’s take a look at some of the action that’s already unfolded.
Rushers
The graph below shows the relationship between rusher EPA per play and success rate in the red zone over the course of the season.
Bucky Irving continued his red zone rampage last night with another touchdown. James Cook had another very strong week in the red zone, bringing in touchdowns—one on the ground and one through the air. Other running backs weren’t as fortunate, like Joe Mixon, who struggled against a tough Chiefs defense on Thursday. Let’s examine some specific rushers from this week.
Jahmyr Gibbs
In his first week of 2024 without David Montgomery, Jahmyr Gibbs had an excellent day, reaching a season-high 23 carries. In the red zone, the story was no different—Gibbs received nine of his team’s 11 carries from the 20 and in. He was able to take one of these nine carries in for a touchdown from the one-yard line after two consecutive goal-line stands. The Lions are adamant about getting the rock into their former 12th-overall pick’s hands. We knew the Lions would be shifting focus to Gibbs after David Montgomery’s injury, however, we have never seen volume like this before. Should he perform similarly next week in a primetime matchup against the 49ers, Jahmyr Gibbs will be remembered as a fantasy MVP by many league champions.
Bijan Robinson
Yesterday was Michael Penix Jr.’s first start in the National Football League after being selected eighth overall by the Falcons in late April. Though there were a few bumps along the way, Sunday showcased a night-and-day difference in Atlanta’s offense. The quarterback was able to move around in the pocket and extend drives, furthering the scoring opportunities. One of the biggest beneficiaries from this extended time in the red zone was Bijan Robinson, who received both of his team’s carries from inside the five-yard line. Robinson took charge with these chances, breaking into the end zone on both. The Falcons’ offense had been deteriorating over the course of the season due to Kirk Cousins’ lackluster quarterbacking; with the rookie now at the helm, all of their weapons look to have increased ceilings moving forward.
Tyjae Spears
In what was a pretty poor overall game against the Colts, Tyjae Spears shined brightly for his fantasy managers. The Titans gave Spears four of the team’s five red zone rushes, of which he took two into the end zone for touchdowns. This now makes four touchdowns in two games for the young back, who has been slowly eating into the workload of Tony Pollard. With another favorable matchup against the Jaguars next week, Tyjae Spears could be heating up at the perfect time for fantasy managers.
Saquon Barkley
After Jalen Hurts left the Eagles’ game against the Commanders early with a concussion, Saquon Barkley finally assumed the full red zone rushing role. Of Philadelphia’s seven red zone rushes, six belonged to Barkley. Without Hurts vulturing red zone touchdowns, Barkley was free to capitalize on his opportunities, scoring a touchdown from the two-yard line. Should Jalen Hurts be unable to go next Sunday against the Cowboys, Barkley will find himself in a favorable matchup with less competition for touches and touchdowns. However, without Hurts, the Eagles’ offense may fail to keep drives alive and get into scoring positions.
Receivers
Similarly to the previous graph, this will show receiver EPA per play against success rate in the red zone.
One of the league’s sneakiest and most underrated red zone threats, Tucker Kraft, suits up tonight in front of a national audience. Other young guns like Brian Thomas Jr., Xavier Worthy, and Sam LaPorta have been putting in the work inside the 20-yard line.
Vikings Receivers
Both of the Vikings’ primary receivers, Jordan Addison and Justin Jefferson, scored red zone touchdowns on Sunday in Seattle. Sam Darnold is playing excellent football, and, as of recently, he’s been keeping the ball out of harm’s way. As a result, Minnesota’s receivers have gone from scary fantasy draft picks to every-week starters. Not only does the rest of this season look good for Jefferson and Addison, but so does 2025 and beyond.
Conclusion
Championship bids hang in the balance tonight in what will hopefully be an exciting matchup at Lambeau Field. Check back next week for another red zone report, and best of luck moving forward!
For more insights and a full breakdown of red zone rush and target data, try using the Red Zone Report tool as part of the Ultimate Draft Kit.
from Fantasy Footballers Podcast https://ift.tt/dg630Ol
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