Welcome to the 13th Red Zone Report of 2024, where I dive into the important stats and information you need to know from 20 yards and in. There’s only one more game remaining in the regular season of most fantasy leagues. Red zone statistics and trends can be incredibly crucial at this point of the season.
Check out the Red Zone Report tool as part of the Ultimate Draft Kit to look at every player’s usage in the red zone, 10-zone, and five-zone.
Let’s begin by taking a look at efficiency in and out of the red zone.
A clear top tier has developed in the efficiency graph above, where Baltimore, Buffalo, Washington, and Detroit are grouped together, having strong efficiency in all parts of the field. One of the teams in the next tier down, the Cincinnati Bengals, has been playing great offensive football, yet their defense cannot match this support, which has led to a very poor 4-8 record. Tonight’s matchup between the Broncos and Browns will feature two offenses with very average red zone efficiency, but very different levels of efficiency outside the red zone.
Rushers
The graph below shows the relationship between rusher EPA per play and success rate in the red zone over the course of the season.
The Buffalo Bills are seemingly unstoppable in the red zone due to their incredible dual rushing threat between Josh Allen and James Cook. Aaron Jones and the Vikings haven’t been as fortunate in short-yardage scoring situations. On the other end of the spectrum, Bucky Irving looks to be the steal of dynasty rookie drafts from this past offseason. Let’s take a more in-depth look at Irving and other rushers.
Rico Dowdle
Rico Dowdle feasted on Thanksgiving with a very impressive 112 yards on 22 carries. This work included three carries in the red zone, with one going for a touchdown. Ezekiel Elliott’s workload continues to lower, and it now seems as if the Cowboys are moving further away from a shared backfield and more into Dowdle being their main rusher, and for good reason. Additionally, it seems as if he is taking over in the red zone. Though the Cowboys’ poor offense limits how often he finds himself getting red zone work, their playoff schedule is pretty favorable.
Bucky Irving
Bucky Irving is playing some of the best football by any running back in the league. He’s getting the volume and is returning efficient production while thriving in the red zone. Irving got seven of his team’s 11 red zone rushes and took one for a touchdown. After a rough Week 15 matchup versus the Chargers, it will be smooth sailing for the rest of the fantasy playoffs. If you somehow weren’t starting him already, you can definitely start Bucky with confidence going forward.
Jonathon Brooks
On the other side of the football from Irving and the Buccaneers, Panthers rookie second-round pick Jonathon Brooks nearly tripled his snap percentage from his debut last week. Interestingly, Brooks got both of the Panthers’ carries inside the 10-yard line paired with two red zone targets (Chuba Hubbard had zero). The Panthers have a strong playoff schedule for running backs; throwing a conservative bid on Brooks, who is available in 43% of leagues, could be a move that pays dividends.
Jordan Mason and Isaac Guerendo
After yet another unfortunate Christian McCaffrey injury, it looks like he’ll be sidelined for the remainder of the season. Jordan Mason got the large majority of red zone work while McCaffrey was out earlier this year. He will likely draw the most attention on the waiver wire in leagues where he is available. However, Isaac Guerendo is a more under-the-radar player who may get lost along the way. He scored a red zone touchdown last night and is definitely worth a bid. The 49ers have a pretty strong schedule for running backs over the remainder of the season; either one of these backs can be a difference-maker going forward.
Receivers
Similar to the previous graph, this will show receiver EPA per play against success rate in the red zone.
Two Lions illuminate the upper-right quadrant of this efficiency graph. Combined with Detroit’s incredible running back duo, it’s easy to see why they have one of the most efficient offenses in football. Not too far behind is the Bengals’ top receiving duo, Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. Let’s wrap up this week’s red zone report by taking a look at some receivers who had a strong week in the red zone.
Sam LaPorta
Second-year tight end Sam LaPorta caught both of his red zone targets for touchdowns on Thanksgiving Day, showcasing the benefit of having a fantasy player on a top offense. Unfortunately, his production is incredibly reliant on scoring touchdowns: Sam LaPorta has only scored 10+ PPR points four times this year, each of which came in a game where he scored at least a touchdown. As he has been all year, Sam LaPorta should remain a very shaky fantasy start going forward.
Jayden Reed
Another player who scored two red zone touchdowns on Thanksgiving was Jayden Reed. Similarly to LaPorta, Jayden Reed has been incredibly touchdown-dependent in recent weeks. However, I believe he is a strong start moving forward thanks to the Packers’ receiver-friendly schedule over the final few weeks of the season.
Conclusion
The fantasy football playoffs are nearly here for many! Red zone trends and predictions can be the key to making league-winning pickups and starts over the final weeks of the fantasy football season. Make sure to check back next week for the Week 14 Red Zone Report!
For more insights and a full breakdown of red zone rush and target data, try using the Red Zone Report tool as part of the Ultimate Draft Kit.
from Fantasy Footballers Podcast https://ift.tt/Yfi9KtD
No comments: