If you’re still plugged into fantasy football content heading into Week 16, it likely means you’ve found yourself in the semifinals of your fantasy playoff and are just TWO wins away from claiming that coveted championship! Making it this far into the season isn’t the time to get lazy so do everything you can to make sure your lineup is at its absolute best! To help see you through the last two weeks of the season, I’m here to walk through a couple of matchups at each position to help make sure your lineup is the one that comes through this week!
Quarterbacks
Jayden Daniels (WASH) vs. Philadelphia
| Consensus | Andy | Jason | Mike |
| QB9 | QB9 | Qb9 |
QB10 |
Despite being the second QB taken in the 2024 NFL Draft, Jayden Daniels has been the top rookie QB for the entire season by a large margin. Daniels has exceeded expectations on the NFL field in his young career and has been even better for fantasy this season, finishing as a top-12 QB nine times already this year. More importantly, Daniels has scored 20+ fantasy points in eight of those nine top-12 QB finishes so he isn’t merely limping into the top-12 on lower-scoring weeks. What has fueled Daniels’ consistent fantasy production has been his ability to run the ball where he averages nearly 50 yards per game this season. That rushing baseline can make up for slower days in the passing game with limited receiving options in Washington.
For Daniels to continue producing for fantasy managers into the fantasy semifinals, he’s got a tough matchup against the Eagles. Philadelphia’s defense has been solid against most fantasy assets this season, allowing the eighth-fewest passing yards and second-fewest rushing yards on the season. For fantasy, the Eagles have only allowed six top-12 QBs on the season and just three in their last 10 games. Daniels didn’t have his best day against the Eagles in his first matchup this season, and with the extremely high stakes in the fantasy semifinals sometimes taking that kind of risk is the one that gets fantasy managers into the championship game.
Kurt would play Daniels over: Sam Darnold (MIN) at Seattle
Aaron Rodgers (NYJ) vs. L.A. Rams
| Consensus | Andy | Jason | Mike |
| QB14 | QB14 | QB16 | QB14 |
It’s weird to think Aaron Rodgers hasn’t been featured in this article series all season, but here we are finally bringing him up in Week 16. It has been a rough season for Rodgers in regards to fantasy, especially when we consider the lofty expectations that came with the Jets’ offense this season, but the last few weeks may be a spark of hope for what may be to come in New York down the road. Over the last two weeks, Rodgers has strung together top-12 QB finishes in back-to-back weeks for the first time since Weeks 16 and 17 of the 2021 season. That’s also the same number of top-12 QB finishes he had in his first 12 games of the 2024 season combined. To top it off, last week Rodgers had just his second three-TD game of the season so it could be that he is an available option in the most important fantasy weeks of the season once again.
Kurt would prefer to play: Anthony Richardson (IND) vs. Tennessee
Running Backs
Travis Etienne (JAX) at Las Vegas
| Consensus | Andy | Jason | Mike |
| RB29 | RB28 | RB30 |
RB28 |
It has been a rough go this season for Travis Etienne, but things may be turning a corner for fantasy managers who trusted him to be a key piece in their championship run. Etienne’s role has been up in the air since early this season with the emergence of Tank Bigsby in the Jacksonville offense. With a split backfield, Etienne was nearly unplayable for most of the season but produced his first double-digit scoring output last week for the first time since Week 3. Etienne looked to be back as the main RB option for the Jaguars last week and was even heavily involved in the passing game, seeing five targets for just the third time this season.
If Etienne is going to be able to keep his return as a usable fantasy asset going in the fantasy playoffs, he’s got a great matchup to do so this week against the Raiders. Las Vegas has allowed 20+ fantasy points to opposing teams’ RBs in 60% of their games this season including a combined 52.2 over their last two games alone. The Raiders have allowed a top-24 RB finish in all but two games this season and a top-12 finish nine times, including in four of their last six games. With Etienne seemingly back in the lead position to carry the load for the Jaguars, this matchup may be the right risk to take for fantasy managers needing to get over the hump into their fantasy championship.
Kurt would play Etienne over: Najee Harris (PIT) at Baltimore
Kendre Miller (NO) at Green Bay
| Consensus | Andy | Jason | Mike |
| RB28 | RB29 | Rb25 |
RB29 |
Opportunity may have finally come knocking for Kendre Miller in the New Orleans offense. After ridding themselves of Dennis Allen, the Saints finally gave Miller a shot last week, and while the results weren’t a huge fantasy day, it should give fantasy managers confidence about his talent on the field moving forward. What is appealing about Miller heading into Week 16 is the potential opportunity that awaits him with Alvin Kamara popping up on the Groin Index this week. While it may be risky, if Miller is given the lead RB opportunities in New Orleans, he presents an extremely interesting fantasy option in such an important week.
Miller’s first crack at being the lead RB for the Saints could come against a tough matchup against the Packers. Green Bay’s defense has allowed the ninth-fewest rushing yards in the league and is one of just five teams who haven’t allowed a rush over 40 yards this season. For fantasy though, they’ve been rather susceptible to allowing productive results for opposing RBs. In the Packers’ last six games, they’ve allowed a top-24 RB in five weeks and a total of seven RBs to hit that mark during that stretch. Fantasy managers will need to be sure that Miller will have the backfield to himself, but he could be a difference-maker this week with such a great matchup.
Kurt would play Miller over: Rhamondre Stevenson (NE) at Buffalo
Jerome Ford (CLE) at Cincinnati
| Consensus | Andy | Jason | Mike |
| RB19 | RB22 | RB18 |
RB22 |
After starting the season as the lead RB in Cleveland, things have come full circle for Jerome Ford who finds himself in the same position in the final weeks of the year. Ford had a strong start to the year in a rough offense, finishing as a top-24 RB in two of his first four games. Starting in Week 5 though, he seemed to lose some footing in the offense and saw his nearly 70% of snaps decrease to below 50% from Weeks 5-14. The injury to Nick Chubb brought Ford back to fantasy life last week with an RB10 finish behind a 62-yard TD run that fueled his production for the day. With it looking like Ford is going to have the backfield to himself again this week, fantasy managers might be able to consider him a flex play with upside.
Not only will Ford be the RB1 in Cleveland again, but he’s got a great matchup against Cincinnati ahead that could mean a massive payoff for fantasy managers that either held onto him or picked him up off waivers. The Bengals have allowed the fifth-most rushing TDs this season and are allowing opposing RBs to score 2.9 fantasy points over expectation. Over their last five games, Cincinnati has allowed a top-15 RB in each game, including two top-five finishes. With the Browns changing QBs back to Dorian Thompson-Robinson, they could lean heavily on the running game, meaning Ford could play a big role in getting fantasy managers into their championship games!
Kurt would play Ford over: Zach Charbonnet (SEA) vs. Minnesota
Wide Receivers
Devonta Smith (PHI) at Washington
| Consensus | Andy | Jason | Mike |
| WR24 | WR25 | WR22 | WR24 |
It’s been an up-and-down season for Devonta Smith in the new-look Philadelphia offense that has won 10 straight games. After starting the season with top-24 finishes in five of his first seven games played, Smith has cooled down since, finishing inside that mark for the first time since Week 10 just last week against the Steelers as the WR5. What should be encouraging for fantasy managers who’ve ridden the rollercoaster with Smith are the consistent targets that he’s seeing in the Philadelphia offense with nearly seven passes per game headed his direction.
If Smith is going to provide another elite performance for fantasy managers in such an important week, he’ll have his work cut out for him against a tough Washington defense. The Commanders have allowed the fourth-fewest passing yards in the league this season and the fewest passing completions. For fantasy, Washington has allowed just three top-24 WR finishes in their last eight games, including keeping both Smith and A.J. Brown outside the top-30 WRs in their first matchup earlier this year. This is the time of year the Ballers remind fantasy managers to “trust your studs” and with one of the highest expected point totals of the week, it’s worth having a piece of the Eagles puzzle in your lineup.
Kurt would play Smith over: Ladd McConkey (LAC) vs. Denver
Zay Flowers (BAL) vs. Pittsburgh
| Consensus | Andy | Jason | Mike |
| WR22 | WR22 | WR23 |
WR22 |
After a red-hot start to the year, Zay Flowers has come back down to earth at maybe the worst time of the season for fantasy managers. Flowers started the season finishing inside the top 15 in six of his first nine games of the year, averaging five receptions for nearly 75 yards per game as the top receiving threat for the Ravens. Since then though, Flowers hasn’t finished better than the WR31. What should be encouraging for fantasy managers is the nearly seven targets per game he’s seeing over that stretch, though he’s only averaging about 50 yards per game with that type of volume.
While getting a matchup with the Steelers for most of the season hasn’t been ideal for fantasy, the main way to attack this Pittsburgh unit seems to be through the air. The Steelers’ defense has allowed the 10th-most passing yards on the season, but just 16 passing TDs in total. For fantasy, Pittsburgh has been a fruitful matchup for fantasy WRs. In their last six games, the Steelers have allowed a top-24 WR five different weeks and a total of six in just their last four games alone. It may be tough to depend on Flowers in such an important week for fantasy, but this is the type of matchup that fantasy managers should be able to profit from having him as a flex option.
Kurt would play Flowers over: DJ Moore (CHI) vs. Detroit
Jalen McMillan (TB) at Dallas
| Consensus | Andy | Jason | Mike |
| WR46 | WR44 | WR49 |
WR45 |
The sneakiest name in fantasy football that fantasy managers need to know right now may be Jalen McMillan. While the first 13 weeks of the season weren’t significant for the Bucs’ rookie WR, McMillan has turned in back-to-back top-20 WR weeks behind three TDs on the offense that’s thrown for the fourth-most yards in the league. In his last two games, McMillan has seen a target on 24% of his routes run and seems to have taken over the WR2 role fully in the Tampa offense. With Cade Otton possibly sidelined with a knee injury, there could be even more work coming for the rookie in a huge week for fantasy managers.
The opportunity for McMillan’s expanded role couldn’t come along with a better matchup against the Cowboys on Monday night. Dallas’ defense is allowing eight yards per completion this season, the second-highest yards per attempt in the league only behind the Jaguars. Over their last six games, the Cowboys have allowed four top-10 WR finishes and have allowed a WR to finish at that mark in back-to-back weeks. What may be more important for McMillan this week is that Dallas’ starting CB Trevon Diggs won’t be playing this week with a knee injury, so it’s likely the rookie will get the secondary coverage with most of the Cowboys’ attention on Mike Evans. Getting to the fantasy championship hinges on calling your shot sometimes, and this is a calculated bet that’s worth taking.
Kurt would play McMillan over: Darnell Mooney (ATL) vs. N.Y. Giants
Tight Ends
Pat Freiermuth (PIT) at Baltimore
| Consensus | Andy | Jason | Mike |
| TE11 | TE13 | TE13 |
TE9 |
Don’t look now, but the Muth has been loose for three straight weeks. After being fairly unpredictable for most of the season, Pat Freiermuth has strung together three straight top-eight TE finishes in a row, catching a TD in each of those games. What’s interesting about Freiermuth’s usage in the Steelers’ offense over the last trio of weeks is where he’s being lined up in the formation. In each of the last two weeks, Freiermuth has played more snaps lined up in the slot than he has inline at the usual TE position, and in Week 14 he even saw 11 snaps lined up out wide. It’s clear the Steelers are in need of more receiving options with George Pickens missing the last two games and the Muth has been the clear beneficiary.
Another great chance for Freiermuth to be a contributor to fantasy success lies ahead of him with a matchup against the Ravens in store for Week 16. Baltimore’s defense has been a great matchup for receiving options all season, allowing the second-most passing yards in the league, but TE success has been hit or miss against them. On the season, the Ravens have allowed double-digit fantasy points to opposing teams’ TEs in 47% of their games and have only given up 10+ fantasy points once in their last four matchups. It is always tough to have a player in such an important week play games off of the main slate, but Freiermuth could be a difference-maker this week.
Kurt would play Friermuth over: Dalton Kincaid (BUF) vs. New England
Travis Kelce (KC) vs. Houston
| Consensus | Andy | Jason | Mike |
| TE4 | TE4 | TE4 |
TE4 |
It feels weird to have to consider whether or not fantasy managers should be relying on Travis Kelce in their fantasy semifinal matchup, but it’s a question that needs asking at this point. Kelce had a great stretch in the middle of the season from Weeks 4-10 where he finished as the TE7 or better in all but one game. Since then though, Kelce hasn’t finished inside the top-12 TEs once and has only scored 10+ points in a single week. For what it’s worth, Kelce has seen six or more targets in each of his last four games, but hasn’t scored a TD since Week 10 and might be completely dependent on it to get him over the hump into “happy you played him” fantasy range again.
To make matters worse for fantasy managers with Kelce on their roster, he’s got a tough matchup against the Texans’ defense this week in a Saturday game. Houston’s defense is allowing the second-lowest yards per passing attempt in the league and more specifically, are allowing -0.6 fantasy points above expectation to the TE position on the season. Over the last five weeks though, the Texans have given up a top-12 TE finish four times, including the TE2 overall just last week to Miami. With Patrick Mahomes playing on a hurt ankle, it feels the odds are stacked against Kelce coming through for fantasy managers, and anyone considering starting him might need to proceed with caution.
Kurt would prefer to play: Mark Andrews (BAL) vs. Pittsburgh
from Fantasy Footballers Podcast https://ift.tt/p9twqsI
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