The entire fantasy world is on the doorstep of the fantasy playoffs and the stakes have never been higher! With just a week left in the fantasy regular season, fantasy managers need to be locked in now more than ever to make sure that those lineups are performing to their absolute highest outputs! Whether you’re trying to lock up that top-seed in the postseason or desperately need to get a W this week, I’m here to look through matchups at each position ahead of Week 14 to help make your roster the best it can be!
Quarterbacks
Tua Tagovailoa (MIA) vs N.Y. Jets
| Consensus | Andy | Jason | Mike |
| QB9 | QB8 | QB11 |
QB10 |
Just a year after finishing as the QB9, the road this season has been a much tougher one for Tua Tagovailoa. The four games missed by Tua set him and the Dolphins’ offense back from what fantasy managers have grown accustomed to seeing, but over the last three weeks, it feels like they’re finding their groove again. Since Week 11, Tua has finished as a top-10 QB in each game, throwing nine TDs and no interceptions in that stretch. Part of the difference in Tua’s fantasy output over the last three weeks has been his massive passing volume, throwing the ball 40 times on average per game for 323 yards. With the positive momentum feeling like it’s behind this Dolphins offense again, Tua has the potential of being a difference-making QB option for fantasy rosters as we enter the fantasy playoffs.
If Tua is going to keep his hot streak going this week, he’s got a tough matchup to do so against the Jets. On the season, New York has allowed the second-fewest passing yards and is the only team that hasn’t allowed double-digit passing TDs on the season with nine. For fantasy, the Jets have been a tough matchup for QBs, only allowing 20+ fantasy points to an opposing QB four times this season, though it’s happened twice in their last three games. While it may be easy for fantasy managers to pencil Tua in this week, it may be disappointing given the tough matchup in such an important week.
Kurt would prefer to play: Justin Herbert (LAC) at Kansas City
Jameis Winston (CLE) at Pittsburgh
| Consensus | Andy | Jason | Mike |
| QB16 | QB19 | QB10 |
QB19 |
The offensive change in Cleveland has been quite the revelation for fantasy production and it all starts with the team’s choice to go with Jameis Winston at QB. Since Winston took over at QB after Deshaun Watson’s season-ending Achilles injury in Week 7, the offensive pieces in the Browns’ offense have become some of the most valuable in fantasy, mostly due to the massive passing volume with Winston averaging 43 passing attempts per game during that stretch. That type of opportunity in the Cleveland offense has translated to three top-six QB finishes for Winston, including a QB1 overall finish just last week against a tough Denver defense.
Keeping the train rolling again this week will be a tough task for Winston with his second matchup against the Steelers in three weeks. Fantasy managers have to take the first meeting in Week 12 with a grain of salt since the majority of the game was played in a snowstorm and Winston only threw the football 27 times. On the season, Pittsburgh’s defense has been tough against opposing QBs, only allowing 20+ fantasy points three different times this season. For Week 14 though, fantasy managers can expect a more pass-friendly environment than the one that Winston faced the Steelers in previously, and with Pittsburgh fresh off allowing a QB9 finish to Joe Burrow, it will be tough not to ride the hot hand that Winston presents this late into the season.
Kurt would play Winston over: Brock Purdy (SF) vs. Chicago
Running Backs
D’Andre Swift (CHI) at San Francisco
[ffb_table]| Consensus | Andy | Jason | Mike |
| RB22 | RB22 | RB21 |
RB23 |
The 2024 season has been a back-and-forth season for D’Andre Swift fantasy-wise. After starting the year with three straight weeks finishing outside the top-37 RBs, Swift followed that up with four straight finishes of RB9 or better. Over his last five games though, the involvement and production for Swift has been tougher to predict, though still productive with three top-24 finishes during that stretch. Since the Bears made a change at offensive coordinator following Week 10, it’s clear that Roschon Johnson has become the preferred red zone RB option where Swift trails in carries six to two during that stretch. There might be a chance for Swift to carve out more of that role this week with Johnson potentially missing Week 14 due to a concussion suffered on Thanksgiving.
A matchup against a San Francisco team that is struggling to find a way to win should present the right opportunity for Swift to provide a productive fantasy option for fantasy managers this week. The 49ers have not been the defense that fantasy managers worked to avoid with their RBs this season like in years past, allowing the second-most rushing TDs on the year. For fantasy, that’s translated into allowing a top-20 RB in seven of their last eight games and five top-15 RB finishes in their last four. While Swift may be a shaky start in recent weeks, with so many players on bye this week, he should provide a decent RB2 option for fantasy managers given his matchup.
Kurt would play Swift over: Isiah Pacheco (KC) vs. L.A. Chargers
Rachaad White (TB) vs. Las Vegas
| Consensus | Andy | Jason | Mike |
| RB21 | RB21 | RB22 |
RB21 |
While the feeling around the RB situation in Tampa Bay feels like it’s gone against Rachaad White, the fantasy production has still been there most weeks. White’s start to the year was slow, especially after coming off a year where he finished as the RB7 overall, but as the Buccaneers have found their footing through multiple WR injuries, he’s finished as a top-24 RB in four of his last six games. Where White is still at his best is in the passing game, where he’s averaged three receptions for 27 yards this season and scored twice as many TDs as he has running the ball. While rookie RB Bucky Irving has seemingly taken over the lead RB duties, White has shown that there’s still plenty of room for both RBs to be productive options for fantasy, though his ceiling may be a little more capped with Irving involved.
Taking on the Raiders in Week 14 feels like a great matchup for White to take advantage of, but Las Vegas has been better against opposing RBs in recent weeks. In their first 10 games this season, the Raiders allowed 23.38 fantasy points to opposing teams’ RBs, but over the last two weeks, they’ve allowed a combined 18.8. While the last two weeks have been better, they’re definitely the exception this season as they are the only two games this year where the Raiders haven’t allowed a top-24 RB in a game. With one of the largest spreads on the week and an expected 26 total points from the Tampa Bay offense, fantasy managers should be able to rely on White as a high-end flex option this week.
Kurt would play White over: Najee Harris (PIT) vs. Cleveland
Isaac Guerendo (SF) vs. Chicago
| Consensus | Andy | Jason | Mike |
| RB14 | RB15 | RB15 |
RB12 |
The waiver wire savior many fantasy managers needed this late in the season, Isaac Guerendo has the opportunity to become a major player in the way many fantasy championships play out. Guerendo is expected to step into the starting role in San Francisco after both Christian McCaffrey and Jordan Mason went down to injury in Week 13. While he’s just a rookie who’s played in limited time, Guerendo has already had two weeks where he finished inside the top-24 and scored a TD last week in garbage time against the Bills. What’s exciting about Guerendo is his combination of size and speed which should fit in well in the 49ers’ offense.
Guerendo’s first shot at being the lead RB for San Francisco comes in an interesting matchup against the Bears’ defense. Chicago has given up the eighth-most rushing yards on the season and is allowing the third-highest yards per carry on the year. For fantasy, that’s translated into the Bears giving up eight top-20 RB finishes this season, including four in their last five games. While exactly what Guerendo’s workload will look like within the 49ers’ offense is still to be seen, he’s the most known commodity that fantasy managers have in an offensive system that they’ve seen numerous RBs be productive in.
Kurt would play Guerendo over: Tony Pollard (TEN) vs. Jacksonville
Wide Receivers
Brian Thomas Jr. (JAX) at Tennessee
| Consensus | Andy | Jason | Mike |
| WR25 | WR24 | WR25 |
WR28 |
As the fourth WR off the board in the 2024 NFL Draft, Brian Thomas Jr. has surpassed his rookie season expectations, currently sitting as the WR12 on the year. Thomas is second among rookie WRs in receiving yards and TDs while having the second-highest yards per reception among rookies with at least 30 targets on the season. Part of Thomas’ fantasy value comes in his big play ability that he’s shown this year, but he’s actually been a consistent target earner in the Jaguars’ offense, seeing a target on 21.1% of his routes run this season. Any concerns about Trevor Lawrence missing time at QB for Thomas’ fantasy value should be gone since Thomas has turned in two top-30 finishes in the three games with Mac Jones taking the majority of snaps for Jacksonville.
Thomas’ matchup in the final week of the fantasy regular season might have been one that fantasy managers might consider avoiding, but with the Titans placing their top CB L’Jarius Sneed on IR, it may be a better matchup than it seems. Tennessee’s defense has allowed the fewest receiving yards this season, and the second-fewest passing plays over 20 yards. For fantasy though, the Titans have allowed a top-24 WR in five of their last eight games, including a top-10 WR in two straight weeks. There’s a chance this game turns into a surprising shootout, and fantasy managers will want Thomas in their lineups if it does.
Kurt would play Thomas over: Marvin Harrison Jr. (ARI) vs. Seattle
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine (TEN) vs. Jacksonville
| Consensus | Andy | Jason | Mike |
| WR38 | WR38 | WR36 |
WR39 |
The nominee for “Out of Nowhere Fantasy Killer” in 2024 has to be Nick Westbrook-Ikhine. Westbrook-Ikhine is on an unbelievable tear, scoring eight TDs since Week 6, more TDs than he had in his last two seasons combined. The TDs have been consistent, but NWI’s fantasy output outside of getting into the end zone has been hit-and-miss, finishing as a top-24 WR in just four of the games that he’s scored in. What is encouraging for Westbrook-Ikhine is his increased usage over the last six weeks, where he’s seen 68% more snaps than he did during the Titans’ first six games of the year. During that stretch, NWI is averaging five targets per game with a ridiculous 20.4 yards per catch thanks to Will Levis’ willingness to chunk the ball downfield.
Week 14 presents almost too juicy of a matchup for Westbrook-Ikhine to continue his hot streak for fantasy managers in an extremely important week. The Jaguars have allowed the second-most passing yards and passing TDs on the season while giving up a league-worst 8.4 yards per completion. Even better for NWI’s outlook this week, the Jags lead the league in completions over 20 yards and have given up 10 passing plays this season over 40 yards. It’s likely that Westbrook-Ikhine was still available in many leagues, so he could be a plug-and-play option for fantasy managers that provides WR2 upside this week.
Kurt would play Westbrook-Ikhine over: Christian Watson (GB) at Detroit
Darnell Mooney (ATL) at Minnesota
| Consensus | Andy | Jason | Mike |
| WR30 | WR31 | WR29 |
WR33 |
It’s been a tough stretch over the last three weeks for Darnell Mooney after starting the season as one of the waiver-wire wonders in Atlanta. Mooney cemented himself as one of the favorite targets for Kirk Cousins in this new Falcons offense early in the season, averaging five receptions for 74 yards from Weeks 2-10. The struggles for the Falcons’ offense over the last two games have limited Mooney’s fantasy production, logging his two lowest receiving yard totals of the season since Week 1. What’s encouraging for fantasy managers is that Mooney was back on the field for 94% of snaps in Week 13 against the Chargers, so there’s hope his Achilles injury may not be limiting him from getting back on the right track for fantasy managers.
The Vikings’ defense is a great opportunity for Mooney and the Falcons’ offense as a whole to find a new rhythm that could lead them to the postseason. Minnesota has allowed the fifth-most passing yards this season and is allowing 34.9 fantasy points to opposing teams’ WRs per game this season. In the last three weeks, Minnesota has allowed four top-24 WRs, including two top-10 WR finishes in Week 12 against the Bears. If Atlanta’s offense can regain his momentum, Mooney could be a valuable piece of the puzzle for fantasy managers as a strong flex option this week.
Kurt would play Mooney over: Jameson Williams (DET) vs. Green Bay
Tight Ends
Will Dissly (LAC) at Kansas City
| Consensus | Andy | Jason | Mike |
| TE11 | TE11 | TE11 |
TE11 |
The hot streak of targets coming Will Dissly’s way in L.A. came to an end last week, seeing his first game with less than four targets since Week 9. Dissly has seen stretches of heavy involvement in a Chargers offense that has thrown the ball more since their Week 5 bye, but he’s only been able to break into the top-12 TEs twice during that stretch. What fantasy managers may need to keep an eye on is the status of Ladd McConkey’s injury. The last time the Chargers were missing one of their main WRs—Quentin Johnston in Weeks 7 and 8—Dissly turned back into Big Montana and saw a combined 18 targets for 122 yards over those weeks. The Chargers’ offense is desperate for playmakers in the passing game, so losing their target leader for a week could greatly benefit Dissly.
While there aren’t many matchups that fantasy managers will want to target the Chiefs with, playing an effective TE against them has been beneficial for fantasy. On the season, Kansas City is allowing 13.5 fantasy points per game to opposing teams’ TEs and has given up 10+ fantasy points six times this season. In the games where the Chiefs are giving up production to opposing TEs, they’ve allowed two TE1 finishes and four top-five TE weeks. Fantasy managers will want to monitor the Chargers’ injury report, but Dissly could get back to being a productive TE play for teams in a bye week pinch.
Kurt would play Dissly over: Pat Freiermuth (PIT) vs. Cleveland
Sam LaPorta (DET) vs. Green Bay
| Consensus | Andy | Jason | Mike |
| TE9 | TE9 | TE6 |
TE9 |
What seemed like a Thanksgiving feast for Sam LaPorta may be like cutting into a “beyond turkey” for fantasy managers. While LaPorta had his first multi-TD game of the season against the Bears and finished as the TE8 on the week, it could be a little misleading at first glance since he only had six total yards on the day. Over the last two weeks, LaPorta has a total of 25 receiving yards on 12 targets and has fallen back to reality in the TE landscape finishing either in the top-10 with a TD or as the TE28 or worse when he doesn’t get into the end zone. What’s got to be discouraging for fantasy managers is that LaPorta seems to have fallen out of the pecking order for targets behind Jameson Williams and is just barely ahead of both Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery on the season, so predicting when he’ll be usable for fantasy is a bit of a crapshoot.
The worst thing that could happen in such an important fantasy week is getting a bad start on Thursday night but there is potential for LaPorta’s matchup with Green Bay this week. The Packers have allowed a combined 38.8 fantasy points to opposing teams’ TEs over the last two weeks and are giving up 2.3 fantasy points above expectation to the position on the season. In their last two games, Green Bay has allowed the TE3 and TE5 with a combined stat line of 16 receptions for 195 yards to Jonnu Smith and George Kittle. Fantasy managers will have to be selective about getting LaPorta into their lineups the rest of the season, but this week might present one of the best chances to be optimistic about getting him in there.
Kurt would play LaPorta over: Evan Engram (JAX) at Tennessee
from Fantasy Footballers Podcast https://ift.tt/znAauj3
No comments: