Welcome to the ninth Red Zone Report of 2024, where I dive into the important stats and information you need to know from 20 yards and in. The NFL trade deadline is approaching soon, as is the case with many fantasy leagues as well. Let’s take a look at some of the red zone trends that can help you decide who you should be targeting in the coming weeks.
Check out the Red Zone Report tool as part of the Ultimate Draft Kit to look at every player’s usage in the red zone, 10-zone, and five-zone.
Let’s begin by taking a look at efficiency in and out of the red zone.
The Dolphins are slowly rising on both axes thanks to the recent return of their quarterback. Meanwhile, the Cleveland Browns are feeling the effects of their injuries, falling from their once best in the league red zone efficiency. The Jayden Daniels-led Commanders continue to defy logic as the strongest offense outside of the red zone while being a middle-of-the-road red zone team.
Rushers
The graph below shows the relationship between rusher EPA per play and success rate in the red zone over the course of the season.
Both Lions rushers find themselves at the top of the league in red zone efficiency. After a stunning performance, J.K. Dobbins joins this strong group at the top. Let’s talk about these players and more!
J.K. Dobbins
J.K. Dobbins continues to impress in Los Angeles as the feature back. On the ground, he averaged over six yards per carry on 14 carries for two touchdowns. However, it was the red zone where he did the bulk of his damage, taking four carries which included both of his touchdowns. He was the only rusher on the team to get any red zone work, reinforcing the claim that he is the red zone workhorse. As we look back at the first half of the 2024 fantasy season, it is clear that J.K. Dobbins was one of the biggest steals of the draft, and there is no reason to believe he is stopping any time soon.
Chase Brown
In what started as a two-headed backfield in Cincinnati, Chase Brown is taking over. Brown was the only running back to get carries in yesterday’s defeat over the Raiders, tallying 27. While he wasn’t able to find the end zone on the ground, he still had seven of his team’s eight red zone carries — a strong indication that he’ll be handling most of this work going forward. In the air, Chase Brown managed to catch his only red zone target as he sped to get open in an out-of-structure pass by Joe Burrow.
Brown’s counterpart, Zack Moss, was out for the game with an injury, which was one of the primary reasons for his significant increase in work. The media indication is that Moss should miss a significant amount of time and is a potential candidate for the injured reserve. If this is indeed the case, Chase Brown will become, in my opinion, a top-10 fantasy running back over the next month. Due to a combination of his heavy usage in and out of the red zone as well as his teammate’s absence due to injury, Chase Brown is a player that should be highly sought after and can help you win the most important weeks of the fantasy regular season.
Lions Rushers
In what is becoming a recurring segment in these articles, we are once again talking about Detroit’s running backs. David Montgomery out-carried Jahmyr Gibbs in the red zone by a score of seven to two. Both players put up strong numbers, especially considering the rough conditions during a very cold and rainy day in Green Bay. As we’ve concluded in many other articles, both rushers are reliable and provide plenty of upside despite the clear shared backfield.
Receivers
Similarly to the previous graph, this will show receiver EPA per play against success rate in the red zone.
With another red zone touchdown, Amon-Ra St. Brown continues to prove he is one of the best players in the league on any part of the field. After losing Stefon Diggs for the season, Tank Dell has stepped up in a major way. Let’s take a look at some of the red zone studs from Sunday’s games.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Speaking of players who took advantage in the absence of their teammates, Jaxon Smith-Njigba (JSN) went off on Sunday in an overtime thriller versus the Rams. He totaled seven catches on 13 targets for 180 yards and two touchdowns. Both of his touchdowns came in the red zone off of only two targets. With or without DK Metcalf in the lineup, JSN continues to grow and develop as a wide receiver. Continued high-value targets in the red zone will add to his value as one of the better pure pass-catchers in the league.
Terry McLaurin
Terry McLaurin only received two targets in yesterday’s win over the Giants — both were in the red zone. The talented sixth-year receiver for the Commanders made these opportunities count, however, catching both for touchdowns. To nobody’s surprise, Terry McLaurin is still the best target in this offense and will continue to be the primary beneficiary in the red zone for his rookie quarterback, Jayden Daniels.
Conclusion
Only a handful of weeks remain in this fantasy football season, making the wins and losses mean that much more. Check back for next week’s red zone report to remain informed on the most important stats in football.
For more insights and a full breakdown of red zone rush and target data, try using the Red Zone Report tool as part of the Ultimate Draft Kit.
from Fantasy Footballers Podcast https://ift.tt/7YLMuxQ
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