For Week 12, we have a 10-game main slate with arguably the best game environments for fantasy showing up on Sunday and Monday evenings. The Thursday night game? Well, that’s a different story:
PIT (-3.5) @ CLE- 36.5 O/U
The Steelers' 20-point team implied total is the LOWEST over the last decade for an 8+ win team at this point in the season.
— Kyle Borgognoni (@kyle_borg) November 20, 2024
Pace of play gives the prospective DFS player an opportunity to consider not just Vegas totals but how the game will be played out in a given week. Game flow is a tricky rabbit hole to jump down when you consider the endless scenarios that can play out in a game. Stacking up-tempo offenses who can keep the ball moving is crucial to gaining an edge in DFS. Even slight differentiations of team trends matter in a world where volume is king.
Each week I’ll highlight my favorite game environments factoring in their pace metrics, stacks to consider for tournaments, and five dart throws to shoot for the moon with.
Game Pace Score
A reminder of a simple metric I introduced a couple of years ago: Game Pace Score(GPS). I liked the acronym to also give you a “compass” of how the game total and neutral pace statistics come together. These scores are ranked 1-5 with five indicating the pace of the play is everything you want for a DFS bonanza.
- 5– A back-and-forth shootout is looming. Both teams are pace-up and both sport team implied totals of 25+.
- 4– An up-tempo spot worth game stacking in DFS in multiple ways. Consider multiple game scripts in play.
- 3– This game could go either way. Often, these are onslaught spots for teams with healthy implied totals or games that hit the under because two middling offenses collide.
- 2– Strong indications of a game you want to stay away from. Usually, the pace is dragged down by one team with an absurdly slow neutral pace or a team with a team implied total so low it drags the entire game environment through the mud.
- 1– This has all the makings of a plodder. These games have totals UNDER 40 which gives you zero confidence in DFS.
For Week 12, I’ve sorted by team implied totals while focusing on neutral pace, pass rate over expectation (PROE), no-huddle rate, EPA metrics and factor that for a final GPS score.
For a downloadable CSV version of the Pace of Play worksheet, click here.
Detroit Lions @ Indianapolis Colts
With a 50+ point total, this game stands out at first on a couple of levels. The Lions are a juggernaut in almost every facet of the game and after taking a fat dump (yeah I had to put that in the clearest of terms) on the Jaguars last week to the tune of 52 points, why not run it back again? 5 of their last 7 games have hit the over and they rank 3rd in red zone plays per game. The Colts rank 3rd in neutral pace and we saw the offense go in overdrive last week on the road with 67 offensive plays run, their 2nd most of the season.
The Lions side is a goldmine for DFS and the Lions onslaught stacks we talked up last week hit in a big way. With Sam LaPorta likely out again, the target share condenses even further. The Colts run Cover-3 40% of the time, a staple of the Gus Bradley defense for years. How has Jared Goff fared against those looks compared to the rest of the league?
- 2022-1st in passing yards, 5th in total fantasy points
- 2023– 1st in passing TDs, 1st in passing yards, 1st in total fantasy points
- 2024– 2nd in completion rate, 2nd in passing yards per game, 8th in total fantasy points
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