With just three weeks remaining in the fantasy regular season, fantasy managers are in full-on grind mode to make sure their rosters are functioning at their optimal output! These are the weeks where the lineup decisions are magnified and can be the difference in setting up an epic playoff run or going through the holidays like a loser in the Toilet Bowl. We haven’t gotten this far into the year for you to be let down though, so I’m here to walk through a handful of matchups at each position to help make those crucial lineup decisions for this week!
Quarterbacks
Geno Smith (SEA) vs. Arizona
| Consensus | Andy | Jason | Mike |
| QB13 | QB9 | QB13 |
QB13 |
After a hot start, it’s been a bit touch and go for fantasy managers trying to stream Geno Smith as their starting QB. Smith started the season as a top-10 QB in four of his first five games but has only finished above that mark once in his last five games. When Smith has been useful as a fantasy streaming option, he’s adding points in the running game. In three of the five games where Smith has finished as a top-10 QB or higher, he’s had at least 30 rushing yards. Unfortunately, Smith hasn’t hit that mark since Week 5 and has thrown seven of his 11 interceptions during that stretch. While the Seattle offense seems to be back on track with D.K. Metcalf returning from injury and Jaxon Smith-Njigba emerging as a WR2, Geno will have to get back into the end zone consistently to continue being a streaming option.
For Geno to get back into the streaming possibilities for fantasy managers this week, he’ll have an interesting matchup against the Cardinals. Arizona’s defense has been better than expected this season, especially when it comes to fantasy QBs. On the year, the Cardinals have allowed a fantasy QB to score 20+ fantasy points just three times and haven’t allowed it in each of their last four games. Overall for fantasy, Arizona has only allowed one QB to finish between QB8 and QB18 on the year, meaning they’re either giving up a high-end finish or your QB is completely killing your roster for the week. With so many teams on bye, Geno may end up being an option fantasy managers are considering, but there should be better bets to make this week.
Kurt would prefer to play: Matthew Stafford (LAR) vs. Philadelphia
Anthony Richardson (IND) vs. Detroit
| Consensus | Andy | Jason | Mike |
| QB16 | QB16 | QB15 |
QB15 |
A collective sigh of relief could be heard from fantasy managers who hung their hats on the Anthony Richardson breakout happening this season after his big return last week ended in a QB5 finish. Richardson had possibly the best passing game of his NFL career, completing 67% of his passes which was the highest completion percentage of his career in which he started and finished a game. What’s exciting for fantasy managers is the balance Richardson seemed to find between the passing game and using his legs as a weapon. It’s worth noting that Week 11 was Richardson’s fourth top-five QB finish in his first 11 career starts, joining only Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, and Deshaun Watson as the other QBs in the last decade to have that many top-five finishes.
If Richardson is going to keep the fantasy momentum moving in the right direction, he’ll have a tough task this week against the Lions. Detroit is giving up 2.2 points below expectation to opposing fantasy QBs on the season, despite allowing the 10th-most passing yards in the league. Where the Lions are hurting opposing QBs’ fantasy production is in TDs where they’ve only given up 16 total TDs on the year (seven passing, nine rushing). On the season, Detroit has only allowed three top-12 QB finishes and hasn’t allowed one in their last six games. While it may be risky, at this point of the season fantasy managers should be chasing the high-end type of play that Richardson can bring to their lineups regardless of the matchup.
Kurt would play Richardson over: Drake Maye (NE) at Miami
Running Backs
Bucky Irving (TB) at N.Y. Giants
| Consensus | Andy | Jason | Mike |
| RB21 | RB22 | RB20 |
RB21 |
The emergence of Bucky Irving in the Buccaneers’ offense has been one of the few surprises at the RB position for fantasy this season. Irving has worked his way into an important role on an offense that can bring plenty of fantasy value to lineups, as he has seen nearly half of the RB rushing attempts on the season over incumbent RB Rachaad White. The tough part about depending on Irving for fantasy managers has been how game-script-dependent he’s become. In games when the Buccaneers aren’t playing from behind, he’s had plenty of carries to keep him relevant, but because Tampa Bay’s defense allows so many points, the team can turn to White in obvious passing situations where he excels. Still, Irving has provided five top-24 RB finishes in his last eight games and should be able to provide fantasy value in a week with plenty of RBs missing due to their bye.
If there’s a game that Irving should be able to help the Bucs run out a lead, it’s in a matchup against the Giants. New York has lost five straight games and is going away from Daniel Jones as the starting QB, instead turning to Tommy DeVito. Add in that the Giants’ defense has allowed the seventh-most rushing yards on the season and the most rushes of 20+ yards in the league. For fantasy, New York has allowed a top-24 RB in nine of their 10 games this season, including a top-15 RB in three of their last four games. It’s likely the game script goes Irving’s way this week and he proves to be the right RB of choice in Tampa Bay.
Kurt would play Irving over: J.K. Dobbins (LAC) vs. Baltimore
Austin Ekeler (WASH) vs. Dallas
| Consensus | Andy | Jason | Mike |
| RB24 | RB24 | RB28 |
RB23 |
What felt like it could have been a swan song of a season for Austin Ekeler has turned into a rebirth of a great fantasy asset in 2024. While Ekeler isn’t the elite fantasy RB that he once was, he’s really popped in the Washington offense as the season has progressed, finishing as the RB16 or better in each of his last three games. To be fair, Brian Robinson Jr. missed two of the Commanders’ last three games, but Ekeler was plenty involved last week against the Eagles when he caught eight of his nine targets and led the team with 89 receiving yards. Ekeler may be a bit of a liability in games where Washington gets ahead early, but Ekeler has only seen less than 40% of the offensive snaps once this season so he’s unlikely to completely goose fantasy managers.
Getting a matchup with the Cowboys this week should only improve the confidence of fantasy managers who may need to play Ekeler in the flex position. Dallas’ defense has allowed 30+ fantasy points to opposing teams’ RBs in four different games this season and is allowing 3.7 points above expectation to the position. For fantasy, that’s translated into allowing a top-24 RB finish in eight of their 10 games this season and six in their last five games alone. With Ekeler’s role plenty established in Washington, there’s a good chance both he and Robinson can find their way into RB2 range this week again.
Kurt would play Ekeler over: D’Andre Swift (CHI) vs. Minnesota
Trey Benson (ARI) at Seattle
| Consensus | Andy | Jason | Mike |
| RB35 | RB36 | RB35 |
RB34 |
It feels like the fantasy community has been waiting for one of the higher-profile rookie RB prospects from the 2024 draft to emerge for fantasy and we finally may be getting it with Trey Benson’s role growing in Arizona. Benson has spent much of the season on the sideline while James Conner runs as the bell-cow back for the Cardinals, but in the two games before their bye, he was been much more involved in the offense. During Weeks 9 and 10, Benson saw his snap count increase by 12% and finished as a top-24 RB each week behind a combined 21 opportunities. The Ballers have said it plenty that Conner has never finished a season without missing a game, but even with Conner still playing, Benson seems to be carving out a role in an offense that might be finding its groove ahead of the backstretch of the season.
If Benson is going to continue being a decent flex value for fantasy managers, he’s got a decent matchup this week against the Seahawks to keep the trend going. Seattle’s defense is allowing the third-highest yards per carry on the season, giving up 4.8 yards per touch on the ground. When it comes to fantasy, Seattle has allowed a top-24 RB in five of their last seven games, three of which were RB8 or better finishes. The biggest question for fantasy managers has to be whether or not they think both Conner and Benson can have solid days in a game that has the fourth-highest expected point total of the week.
Kurt would prefer to play: Jaylen Wright (MIA) vs. New England
Wide Receivers
DJ Moore (CHI) vs. Minnesota
| Consensus | Andy | Jason | Mike |
| WR32 | WR31 | WR31 |
WR32 |
After finally getting the high-end fantasy season that many in the fantasy community believed he could produce, DJ Moore has taken a massive step backward in 2024. Moore finished as the WR6 last season but is currently the WR34 and has only finished inside the top 24 WRs once this season. What’s worse is that Moore has only surpassed 10 fantasy points three times on the year. If there’s any silver lining for fantasy managers who have held onto Moore, there was a stark difference in the WR’s usage last week after the Bears fired Offensive Coordinator Shane Waldron after Week 10. Moore caught all seven of his targets from Caleb Williams, the second-highest number of receptions he’s had in a game this season, so there could be some positive momentum moving forward for him in the new-look Bears offense.
A matchup with the Vikings could be what Moore needs to get back on track for fantasy managers. Minnesota’s defense has allowed the eighth-most passing yards in the league, but oddly has the eighth-lowest completion percentage against them. For fantasy, that’s translated into the Vikings allowing a top-20 WR in seven of their last nine games, though they just allowed their first WR1 in three weeks to the Titans in Week 11. The tough decision for fantasy managers will be deciding if they believe Moore is going to continue his increased involvement for the Bears moving forward.
Kurt would play Moore over: Jakobi Meyers (LV) vs. Denver
Jerry Jeudy (CLE) vs. Pittsburgh
| Consensus | Andy | Jason | Mike |
| WR33 | WR33 | WR35 |
WR33 |
The Jameis-led Browns offense found itself a new top target last week in Jerry Jeudy and the results were a WR4 overall finish. After being traded to Cleveland this offseason, Jeudy hadn’t made much of an impact in an offense that was lacking in playmakers in the passing game, but his 142 yards was the second-highest receiving total of his career in a single game and should have fantasy managers at least considering him moving forward. Jeudy has seen an increase in involvement since Jameis Winston took over as the starter for the Browns, averaging 10 targets per game for nearly 100 yards per week. With Jeudy much more involved in an offense that has thrown the ball at least 41 times per week with Jameis, fantasy managers should continue to consider the receiving options in Cleveland based on opportunity alone.
That type of passing volume should continue for the Browns’ offense this week against the Steelers. Pittsburgh’s defense is one of the toughest against the run, allowing the fourth-fewest rushing yards on the season. Cleveland meanwhile has the third-fewest rushing yards this season, so fantasy managers should expect plenty of passing volume again from the Browns. For fantasy, the Steelers have allowed a top-20 WR in three of their last four games, including the WR6 just two weeks ago. With fantasy managers facing plenty of bye-week woes, Jeudy could prove to be a waiver-wire hero this week.
Kurt would play Jeudy over: Tank Dell (HOU) vs. Tennessee
Christian Watson (GB) vs. San Francisco
| Consensus | Andy | Jason | Mike |
| WR35 | WR34 | WR36 |
WR35 |
It feels like an eternity since Christian Watson nearly broke fantasy football as a rookie when he finished as a top-eight WR in four straight weeks, scoring seven TDs over that stretch. Since then, Watson has really struggled to find consistency in a Packers offense that has added plenty of fantasy-relevant players around him. Week 11 was an encouraging sign for fantasy managers though, with Watson posting his first 100+ yard receiving game since Week 18 of the 2022 season. The trouble with Watson’s big day against the Bears is that it only came on four total targets, so he’s still pretty play-dependent.
If there’s a team that’s not likely to give up big plays in the passing game, it would be the 49ers. San Francisco’s defense is one of the best pass defenses in the league this season, allowing the fourth-fewest passing yards and just 11 passing TDs. When it comes to Watson’s matchup with them this week, the big play isn’t something to count on since the 49ers have allowed the seventh-fewest passes of over 20+ yards and just three total passing plays over 40. With the massive number of players on bye this week Watson could be a pick-up-and-play type of player in a pinch, but fantasy managers should beware that he’ll be a boom-or-bust option.
Kurt would prefer to play: Demario Douglas (NE) at Miami
Tight Ends
Dallas Goedert (PHI) at L.A. Rams
| Consensus | Andy | Jason | Mike |
| TE10 | TE10 | TE13 |
TE10 |
It may not seem like it, but Dallas Goedert has been one of the more consistent TE options for fantasy this season. Goedert has been a top-10 in four of his last five games since Week 3, though he did miss three weeks of play from Weeks 7-9. It’s important to note though that Goedert’s ceiling is dependent on WRs AJ Brown and Devonta Smith being on the field for the Eagles. Whenever Goedert has a chance to be the main option for Jalen Hurts, he’s one of the few TEs in the league who can put together a performance like he did earlier this season with 10 receptions for 170 yards.
If Goedert is going to continue his contributions to fantasy rosters, he’ll have a great shot this week against the Rams. Los Angeles’ defense has been one to target in the passing game, allowing 8.2 yards per attempt on the season. Against TEs specifically, the Rams are allowing 1.4 fantasy points above expectation and have allowed at least 11 fantasy points to opposing teams’ TEs in four of their last six matchups. The TE position is tough to find a consistent option that won’t goose fantasy managers, and Goedert has a chance to be a solid one again this week.
Kurt would play Goedert over: Hunter Henry (NE) at Miami
Mark Andrews (BAL) at L.A. Chargers
| Consensus | Andy | Jason | Mike |
| TE12 | TE13 | TE8 |
TE12 |
The excitement that Mark Andrews finally gave fantasy managers after an awful start to the season ended last week with a TE27 finish. From Weeks 6-10 though, Andrews finished as a top-10 TE in four of his five games and caught five TDs over that stretch. It wasn’t just the TDs that made Andrews valuable again though, that five-week stretch saw Andrews back to the main TE option for the Ravens like the fantasy world has grown accustomed to. Andrews has also started to see those valuable red zone targets again that can make or break the week at the TE position, seeing six red zone targets since Week 6.
Playing a tough Monday night matchup against the Chargers should make fantasy managers take a hard look before penciling Andrews into their lineups. Los Angeles’ defense has been tough against the position, allowing 3.1 points under expectation to opposing TEs this season. The Chargers have only allowed 10+ fantasy points to opposing teams’ TEs once in their last six games and have given up a combined 5.2 fantasy points to TEs in their last two games. While hoping for a Mark Andrews Monday night miracle seems like the fantasy football thing to do, fantasy managers would be taking a huge risk that likely won’t pay off.
Kurt would prefer to play: Zach Ertz (WASH) vs. Dallas
from Fantasy Footballers Podcast https://ift.tt/GucvHdb
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