Welcome to the Expected Points & Opportunity article for Week 13!
In this article, we will use my Expected Fantasy Points model to highlight the most valuable players at each position. Naturally, volume matters tremendously for fantasy football. However, it is important to remember that not every opportunity is created equal and that a player’s value will vary based on their usage and their team’s offensive ecosystem. Expected Fantasy Points will take those variables into account to quantify each player’s projected fantasy value based on the down, distance, depth, and location of their opportunities.
The key metrics used in this article are:
- Expected Fantasy Points (or xFP): The average (or expected) fantasy value of a player’s opportunities. This metric is synonymous with volume.
- Fantasy Points Over Expected (FPOE): The difference between a player’s actual fantasy production and their Expected Fantasy Points. This metric is synonymous with efficiency and is subject to regression week over week.
What do these metrics tell us?
- My model analyzes fantasy production in terms of volume (xFP) and efficiency (FPOE).
- Players with high xFP are more likely to produce consistently, while players who rely too heavily on FPOE may experience volatility in their production. In other words, we want to target players that rank highly in xFP.
- xFP is by far the more stable and predictive metric. However, it is not a ranking system. It is only one part of the equation and should be used in conjunction with other metrics for a holistic view.
- While I caution investing in players who rely on FPOE, I would NOT avoid them entirely. Players who depend on efficiency simply have a higher range of outcomes. In other words, these players can simultaneously raise the ceiling and lower the floor of your DFS lineups.
If you are newer to this series, be sure to check out my full series primer where I break down my Expected Fantasy Points model in more detail. The full version of this article is available only in the DFS Pass.
If you have any additional questions, feel free to reach out on Bluesky @MarvinJE or Twitter @FF_MarvinE
RUNNING BACKS
- Over the last four weeks, only one running back is averaging over 20 Expected Fantasy Points: Chase Brown. By a significant margin, he has been the RB1 in usage value since Week 9, commanding an 86.1% rushing share, 16.7% target share, and 65% route participation. Those are truly elite numbers that should translate into RB1 production most weeks. And to no surprise, Brown has finished within the top 10 in half-PPR leagues in each of his last three games, operating as the focal point of the Bengals’ offense. In addition, despite receiving elite usage, Brown is only priced at $6,200 on DraftKings (RB15) and $7,300 on FanDuel (RB16), profiling as one of the best values in this week’s slate. So despite a tougher matchup against the Steelers, Brown should receive enough opportunities to produce RB1 numbers once again in Week 13.
Want to read the rest of this article?
Get the Ultimate DFS Pass from The Fantasy Footballers for instant access. Expert advice, weekly picks, premium reports, trusted & award-winning weekly resources.
Get the Ultimate DFS PassAlready have the DFS Pass? Login to access
from Fantasy Footballers Podcast https://ift.tt/4ZLlmE8
No comments: