The fantasy season is filled with noise; sometimes, it can be hard to know what is real and what is a mirage. I’m here to look underneath the bed and see if I can decipher what’s really going on around here. Is what we saw actually meaningful, or was it a creation of some unusual circumstance that is likely not to repeat? I’ll lay out 10 of the most intriguing or surprising storylines, analyze some of the conditions and fluctuations we saw this week, and tell you which things matter and which things don’t. Let’s dig into it.
Caleb Williams’s Progress: MATTERS, BUT ALSO, THE JAGS ARE REALLY BAD AT PASS DEFENSE
We should all be very excited — Bears fans, fantasy managers who grinned and bore it, and dynasty managers who took the plunge early. Caleb Williams looked like the can’t-missiest of the can’t-misses on Sunday and made significant progress in reaching prominence foretold.
Williams’s dominant game is constructive; there’s no getting it twisted. After five games, he is already noticeably more comfortable seeing the field, understanding the timing, and working out of the structure in the NFL. Williams has leveled up and deserves mention among the QBs in the league’s top half.
My one hesitation in placing him with the elite at the position is that breaking out against Jacksonville isn’t very telling. Coming into the week, the Jags ranked dead last in EPA per dropback allowed; nothing about this weekend in London will change that. Put another way:
23 completions on 29 attempts for 226-4-1 = candy; Jacksonville’s defense = baby.
Maybe before we promote Williams to the league’s upper crust, we should let him prove he can do this against somebody who knows how to stop a pass. The good news for Williams’ managers? It’s going to be a while. After a bye this week, Williams gets to thrash Washington, Arizona, and New England before finally meeting up with the Packers in Week 11.
Tank Bigsby’s Lack of Receiving Work: MATTERS
Big news from the same game on the other side of the pitch: Travis Etienne injured a hamstring. He is now considered week-to-week. So, his yielding to Tank Bigsby feels like it is at a crescendo.
The problem? Bigsby is not used in the passing game, and this is a real issue, considering we must now accept Jacksonville as one of the league’s worst teams. Despite a momentous clearing of the runway for Bigsby, he was on the field for half the snaps of D’Ernest Johnson. The reason for such a deflating disappointment is that the Jags were in a negative game script all day, and they do not trust Bigsby to run routes. He ran seven; Johnson ran 25.
So, Bigsby is the primary first and second-down RB, and he will probably remain that way even after Etienne returns; yet, the amount of time Jacksonville will spend in a neutral or positive game script is in question. Fantasy managers will do well not to get too excited about game-script-dependent rushers on bad teams that aren’t part of the passing game.
Almost Anything That Happened in Arlington: DOESN’T MATTER (FOR FANTASY)
This is a fantasy football perspectives article; if you’re a Cowboys fan, what happened to your team this weekend is highly significant, and the responses to it may have massive ramifications. If you are a Lions fan, what happened is less important, but the lopsided victory may bolster your confidence in the product.
From a fantasy perspective, though? It’s not going to change much.
The Cowboys will still try their best, funneling their targets to CeeDee Lamb, Jake Ferguson, and, to a lesser degree, Jalen Tolbert. They will still offer nothing in the running game. The Lions will still front-run with smashmouth and capably recuperate from setbacks with competent passing. Amon-Ra St. Brown will still be a stone-cold killer.
The stats will be all skewed after a game like this. The snaps for the star players will all come down due to the game’s early decidedness. The Lions will look even more run-heavy than usual, and the market shares will siphon from their fantasy assets toward benchwarmers who wrapped the thing up in garbage time. The Cowboys, who are pass-heavy, will look run-heavier from behind because they essentially gave up at a point. Just throw the stats out and proceed with each team as you normally would.
Emari Demercado’s 53.8% Snap Share: DOESN’T MATTER, BUT TREY BENSON’S 19.0% MIGHT???
The Cardinals seemed incredibly lackluster yesterday against Green Bay and were largely dominated. Emari Demercado has already been in for obvious passing downs, which continued Sunday. The inflated deficit makes the resulting majority RB share look surprising, and his seven targets (mostly on checkdowns) may appeal to managers in the 20-team league circuit (I might go for it in a 32-team league).
The Cardinals may not be great, but they aren’t this bad, so there will be better weeks. Conner has played well, and there is no need for the Cardinals to feel anxious about him or feel urgency to change his role. If the Cardinals are in a better game script on Monday, expect Conner to be back in the mix.
But we need to watch Trey Benson, a third-round pick and the second RB taken in the NFL draft. As the Cardinals progress through the season, they are expected to hand more responsibility to Benson; if they start to fall out of contention, the process should accelerate as they look forward to 2025 and beyond.
We shouldn’t be there yet; the Cardinals beat the 49ers a week ago. For now, expect Benson to simply enter the chat. However, a three-person committee makes Conner look less attractive.
Drake Maye Taking Over: MATTERS
If you want to read possibly the most Stephen A. thing I ever wrote, you can check out this little scorcher I penned for RotoViz this summer. I’ve always thought it was a mistake for Jerod Mayo to leave Drake Maye on the bench for fear he would be ruined. That’s all I’ll say about it.
Regardless, Maye started his first game in Week 6, and New England’s entire operation already looked worlds better. They scored three passing TDs; under Jacoby Brissett, they scored two through five games. They had a season-high in passing yardage and, in this one game, accounted for 26% of their season-long passing yards and 29% of their first downs.
It was no perfect game – we wouldn’t expect that from a rookie – but it opened everything up slightly more. Demario Douglas and Hunter Henry should be rostered, and it is possible they can serve teams during bye weeks. Ja’Lynn Polk, Kendrick Bourne, and Kayshon Boutte are all at least watch-list fodder. And Maye probably won’t score over a 7% TD rate every week, but he will have some rushing floor, making him potentially fantasy-viable from now on.
And the thing about rookies is that they only tend to get better as the year goes along. By year’s end, Maye and his teammates could be pretty effective.
What Happened While Rachaad White Was Away: MATTERS
Many have discussed Rachaad White‘s inefficiency, especially as a rusher; many believed his pass-catching acumen would protect him from all-out oblivion. Sunday’s developments in his absence were detrimental to White’s incumbency in Tampa Bay.
Bucky Irving and Sean Tucker went bananas as White sat against New Orleans with a foot injury. They rushed for a combined 28-217-2 and went 5-84-1 through the air, meaning they combined for 301 total yards and three TDs. Both players had explosive rushes of at least 30 yards, and Tucker had another through the air as he willed his way through traffic to score.
It’s not a good look when you’ve been riding the struggle bus on the ground every week for two years, and your replacements make it look effortless the minute you’re gone. It will be interesting to see how “healthy” the Bucs want to ensure White is before they bring him back into the fold (wink, wink).
Joe Flacco’s Being Better for the Colts’ Chances in a Game: DOESN’T MATTER
Sadly for Anthony Richardson truthers, it is apparent by now that the Colts’ best chance to win games in 2024 is with Joe Flacco under center. The wily veteran outplayed Deshaun Watson (then again, is that saying anything?) last year and may have won Kevin Stefanski the Coach of the Year Award. He is also better for Michael Pittman, Josh Downs, and Alec Pierce – especially Downs, who has been incredible for three straight weeks.
But the Colts won’t continue with Flacco. They aren’t in Super Bowl contention with Flacco taking snaps, and he is 39. It makes far more sense for the long-term health of the franchise to get back to the business of developing Richardson, a high draft pick, and see what they’ve got…if they can keep him on the field long enough to observe him, that is.
Najee Harris’s Big Day: PROBABLY DOESN’T MATTER TO HIM, BUT IT MAY MATTER TO JAYLEN WARREN
Najee Harris has been a caricature of himself this year, entering Week 6 with 3.3 YPC on 50% of his team’s attempts, logging zero TDs and -16.7 FPOE. He has always been inefficient, but this has been a new low.
As a consequence, many (I mean me) have been trading for and holding onto Jaylen Warren, expecting him to get a decent chance to take the lead in the coming weeks. Historically, Warren is far more efficient as a rusher and a receiver, and he is considered among the best pass blockers in the game.
This takeover could still happen, but Harris’s 7.2 YPC performance against Las Vegas makes it a bad day to ask Dad to borrow the car. Harris barely outsnapped Warren 31-25 and only ran three more routes, but he doubled up on carries and looked way better in a one-game sample. This usage demonstrates more of what we saw a year ago, which is not a great sign, and the performance of each encourages more of the same.
Continue to Hold: Story of a Warren manager’s life.
Tyler Allgeier Leading the Team in Carries: MATTERS, BUT BIJAN ROBINSON IS STILL AN RB1
Don’t scroll back too many weeks; you may see this exact same segment heading with the names of the Jets’ RBs in place of Tyler Allgeier and Bijan Robinson. And the argument is similar. Allgeier is getting a lot of work; this is a part of life now. Robinson managers will do well to accept that and move on.
Obviously, this is bad news for Robinson’s ceiling because he won’t be the workhorse we may have envisioned during draft season. However, Robinson is still an explicit part of the Falcons’ game plan and the better receiver. This week, he regained control of the target share, and things were planned for Robinson to get him going. He came through with a big game. Allgeier came in to salt away the game. Both will be involved. Robinson will be an RB1, and Allgeier is in the RB2/flex range.
One thing Robinson and Allgeier have going for them over Breece Hall and Braelon Allen is a functional offense. The Falcons are 12th in EPA per play, and the Jets are 23rd.
Will Levis’s Ineffectiveness: OFFICIALLY MATTERS
I wrote a piece this summer standing up for the Titans as a possible emergent passing offense with Will Levis at the head of it; the first few weeks, the results looked pretty daunting, but the schedule was brutal. As such, I wanted to cut Levis some slack and hope for a better tomorrow (especially since I had aligned myself with him in the public square).
But the Colts ranked 24th in EPA per dropback allowed coming into Week 6, and Levis went 16/27 for 95-1-1 and a QB rating of 63.0 anyway. He targeted his duo of Calvin Ridley and DeAndre Hopkins six times apiece. Hopkins went 4-54-0, and Ridley put up a doughnut.
Excuse-making for Levis is becoming a less rational practice (though still far more rational than excuse-making for Deshaun Watson).
from Fantasy Footballers Podcast https://ift.tt/EIS7t09
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