Welcome to the seventh Red Zone Report of 2024, where I dive into the important stats and information you need to know from 20 yards and in. Week seven still has a couple of exciting matchups tonight, but there was plenty of exciting and fantasy-relevant football already played across the NFL.
Check out the Red Zone Report tool as part of the Ultimate Draft Kit to look at every player’s usage in the red zone, 10-zone, and five-zone.
As always, let’s begin by taking a look at efficiency in and out of the red zone.
The Bills have added a new weapon in Amari Cooper. It will be interesting to see how the target distribution differs from the past, both in and out of the red zone. The New York Jets also added a shiny new toy in their trade for Davante Adams. The trade deadline is rapidly approaching, so it is important that we always keep in mind the red zone impacts of each and every move.
Rushers
The graph below shows the relationship between rusher EPA per play and success rate in the red zone over the course of the season.
Two of the league’s top red zone rushers, Derrick Henry and James Conner, will suit up tonight. Alongside them, David Montgomery, Derrick Henry, Jalen Hurts, Kyren Williams, and Alvin Kamara continue to dominate. Let’s take a look at some other rushers who capitalized in the red zone in Week 7.
Javonte Williams
The Denver Broncos demolished the New Orleans Saints on Thursday night in front of a national audience. One of the heaviest hitters from Denver was Javonte Williams, who raked in over 100 all-purpose yards alongside two touchdowns, both of which were inside the 10-yard line. Since his leg injury in 2022, the Denver running back room has been up for grabs. Now, more than a year removed from the injury, Williams looks to be the primary weapon, especially in the red zone where he has commanded touches. As the Broncos have continued to improve, so has Javonte Williams. More opportunities, especially those in the red zone, will continue to boost his potential.
Tank Bigsby
In the absence of an injured Travis Etienne, Tank Bigsby was unleashed in the final of three London games. Accumulating 118 yards on 26 carries, Tank Bigsby controlled the game from start to finish. Of the 16(!) Jacksonville carries in the red zone, Tank Bigsby took 14, two of which resulted in touchdowns. Throughout the season, Bigsby has played very well as the RB2 behind Travis Etienne. Now, in his biggest opportunity thus far, Bigsby stepped up and proved himself even further. As stated in a previous week’s article, I expect his opportunities to continue to expand moving forward. Additionally, his red zone work will continue to be a major part of his fantasy relevance moving forward.
Jahmyr Gibbs
While last week in Dallas may have belonged to David Montgomery, Week 7 in Minnesota was all Jahmyr Gibbs. Montgomery was injured early in the first half, though he was able to return later. In the second, a costly David Montgomery fumble resulted in a defensive touchdown and nearly cost the Lions the game. Thankfully, as the Sonic to Mongomery’s Knuckles, Jahmyr Gibbs was able to pick his teammate up by having a huge day. Gibbs scored a career-high 32 PPR points, including a touchdown on an eight-yard rush. Receiving two red zone rushes to Mongomery’s one, Gibbs proved he’s more than capable of handling carries inside the 20-yard line. While I don’t expect touch distribution to change much, lingering injury issues or fumble issues may lead to changes down the road.
Receivers
Similarly to the previous graph, this graph will show receiver EPA per play against success rate in the red zone.
Two New York Jets find themselves among the most efficient red zone receivers. How will the addition of Davante Adams change their red zone usage and fantasy potential? Only time will tell. In other news, with another week came another Drake London red zone touchdown. London, Amon-Ra St. Brown, George Kittle, and Tucker Kraft have made the most of their red zone opportunities. Let’s consider a couple of tight ends in rapidly changing situations.
David Njoku
Deshaun Watson is done for the remainder of the season, which means it’s time for one of Cleveland’s backup QBs to take the reins and try to revitalize the team. Earlier in the week, the Browns also lost their top receiving threat, Amari Cooper, by way of trade. This leaves David Njoku and Jerry Jeudy as the top pass-catchers to be targeted by either Dorian Thompson-Robinson or Jameis Winston. While it may seem that all is lost in Cleveland, I don’t think that is the case in terms of the team’s fantasy output. As the Ballers mentioned various times over the offseason, David Njoku played much better (and racked up many more fantasy points) when Deshaun Watson was NOT his quarterback. In fact, he even caught a touchdown on Jameis Winston’s first drive of the game.
Plain and simple, Deshaun Watson was operating as one of the worst quarterbacks in football for the first seven weeks. Additionally, there is a massive new opportunity for Cleveland receivers to step up in place of Amari Cooper. Take a chance and make a move to acquire Jerry Jeudy or David Njoku — it could just win you your league.
Brock Bowers
In a very similar situation to David Njoku, Brock Bowers’ role should be expected to elevate substantially with the loss of his team’s top target. In his first game without Davante Adams on the roster, Bowers received three red zone targets. Though he wasn’t able to do much with these targets, he still had a very strong day, catching 10 passes for 93 yards. Now with Adams’ anticipated departure from Las Vegas, Brock Bowers should easily finish as a top-five fantasy tight end barring injury.
Conclusion
Week 7 wraps up tonight with a couple of exciting matchups. In the middle parts of the season come major situational changes due to injuries and trades. By staying up to date with news, we can predict different changes in red zone work before they happen. Make sure to check back every week for the most recent Red Zone Report.
For more insights and a full breakdown of red zone rush and target data, try using the Red Zone Report tool as part of the Ultimate Draft Kit
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