Welcome to the fifth Red Zone Report of 2024, where I dive into the important stats and information you need to know from 20 yards and in. Week 5 had us all feeling like it was 2020 again, with offenses popping and fantasy points flying everywhere! Let’s take a look at the biggest red zone takeaways from one of the most exciting weeks in football thus far!
Check out the Red Zone Report tool as part of the Ultimate Draft Kit to look at every player’s usage in the red zone, 10-zone, and five-zone.
As always, let’s begin by taking a look at efficiency in and out of the red zone across the league.
The Ravens are our red zone champions through the first quarter of the season. This probably makes sense considering that Derrick Henry and Lamar Jackson operating in the same offense is unfair. Dallas, still without a solid complementary receiving option opposite CeeDee Lamb, has struggled the most in the red zone to this point. Let’s take a look at some of the most interesting red zone players and offensive units from this week.
Rushers
We finally have a large enough sample size from 2024 to take a look at red zone data. The graph below shows the relationship between rusher EPA per play and success rate in the red zone.
Brute force backs like David Montgomery, Derrick Henry, and James Conner have been tearing teams up inside 20 yards. Meanwhile, players like Josh Jacobs, Travis Etienne, and Najee Harris have struggled in close. Let’s dive into some red-zone-relevant backfields.
Commanders Rushers
As the league’s most efficient red zone offense and one of the teams that takes the most snaps in that area of the field, the Washington Commanders are a team of which all fantasy managers should be trying to get a piece. Brian Robinson Jr. remains as the primary goal-line back, receiving three of four carries inside the five-yard line before Washington’s game against Cleveland got out of hand. He took two of these three rushes in for touchdowns and has proven his heightened fantasy potential thanks to the touchdown upside in his favor. Brian Robinson Jr. now has five touchdowns in five games on the season, all of which have come in the red zone (three within the five-yard line). The man they call “B-Rob” is proving to be a true red zone champion which may just lead his fantasy managers to the promised land.
Jaguars Rushers
The debut of the new “prowler” throwback jerseys wasn’t the only exciting part of Sunday’s win over the Colts — in fact, Tank Bigsby provided both Jaguars fans and fantasy managers something to be incredibly bullish and hopeful about. Bigsby once again outstretched the shadow of Travis Etienne Jr., out-snapping, out-carrying, out-rushing, and out-scoring the veteran. In the red zone, Bigsby received four of the five rushes for the Jags. He managed to take one of these carries for 19 yards and a touchdown. Though Doug Pederson mentioned “[Etienne] is still our guy,” Bigsby is simply playing too well to keep on the sideline. Though no permanent change is likely to come any time soon, Bigsby will likely continue to eat into Travis Etienne’s workload, potentially taking over as the red zone running back.
Trey Sermon
In the midst of Jonathan Taylor’s absence due to a “mild” high-ankle sprain, Trey Sermon took over as the primary back for the Indianapolis Colts. Sermon was given four opportunities inside five yards, and he converted one of them for a touchdown. Despite a loss and a weak stat line relative to the opportunities he had, it looks like we can expect Trey Sermon to continue as the RB1 for as long as Jonathan Taylor is out.
Receivers
Similarly to the previous graph, this graph will show receiver EPA per play against success rate in the red zone.
Taller, more physically dominant receivers like Drake London, Tee Higgins, and Mike Evans dominate in the red zone, and for good reason. Surprisingly, Nico Collins has struggled early despite having a similar build. Let’s look at some interesting receiving rooms from Week 5.
Tee Higgins
A couple of articles back, we talked about how Andrei Iosivas of the Cincinnati Bengals would be an incredibly viable option when Ja’Marr Chase or Tee Higgins were out. Well, this week both were healthy, and both ate up fantasy points. Chase and Higgins each earned double-digit targets and multiple touchdowns in an unfortunate loss to the Ravens. While Chase was the better fantasy performer, Tee Higgins was the star of the red zone. Higgins was targeted twice in the red zone and turned both opportunities into touchdowns. With four inches of height over Ja’Marr Chase and some of the strongest hands in the league, Higgins is the featured receiver in the red zone on a Bengals team that is finding itself in a positive passing game script frequently.
49ers Receivers
In a game in which all of the team’s core receivers were healthy, the ball was spread around a hefty amount. In the red zone, George Kittle earned six targets, Jauan Jennings earned two, and Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel were only targeted once each. In the past, the overcrowding of the San Francisco offense may not have been a big deal. However, as the opening graph shows, this Kyle Shanahan offense is simply not performing at the level of years past. This is leading to some players putting up poor fantasy performances, like those of Samuel and Jennings this week. If the 49ers continue their offensive struggles, we may begin to see an overall lower fantasy value of their offensive skill position players.
Conclusion
As the season continues, we’ll come into possession of more data, which will allow us to be more confident in our assessments in and out of the red zone. For now, looking into opportunity distribution and efficiency is our best bet!
For more insights and a full breakdown of red zone rush and target data, try using the Red Zone Report tool as part of the Ultimate Draft Kit.
from Fantasy Footballers Podcast https://ift.tt/QLWD2IY
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