In this article, I will break down NFL team performances going into Week 9 based on their expected points added (EPA) per play on both offense and defense. Let’s jump right into things.
Offensive Takeaways
Washington still leads the pack in offensive efficiency at 0.17 EPA/play. Continue to start your Commanders players!
Detroit remains strong in offensive efficiency, at 0.11 EPA/play, and will face a mediocre Green Bay defense in Week 9. Jahmyr Gibbs, especially, has been heating up, scoring five TDs in his last four games.
Philadelphia, who has been shaky all season overall, has climbed the ranks in offensive efficiency as of late. The return of Devonta Smith and A.J. Brown has been helpful in getting this offense back on track. They face the Jags, who have a -0.13 EPA/play defensively this season — start your Eagles!
Tampa Bay seems to have leveled off in EPA/play offensively. Even with Mike Evans and Chris Godwin playing before Week 8, it seems that the Bucs hit an efficiency plateau. While they likely won’t improve much the rest of the year, they are still playing at a high level meaning their players can be trusted in fantasy.
The 49ers rank 11th in offensive EPA efficiency — they’ve been fairly inconsistent throughout this season. Bouncing around the 0.05 EPA/play threshold, this tells us the team has been pretty average in terms of offensive production week-to-week. Players like Deebo Samuel and Jordan Mason should remain as week-to-week decisions for starters, as George Kittle has consumed most of the offensive output this season.
The Falcons are heating up offensively. After a slow start to the season, Kirk Cousins is finding some chemistry with his receiving core of Darnell Mooney, Drake London, and Kyle Pitts. Bijan Robinson has found his stride, and the offense is clicking on all levels. While their EPA trend is showing gradual improvement, expect it to continue in the coming weeks.
Defensive Takeaways
The Ravens’ defense has been underwhelming this season, putting up a -0.08 EPA/play. After an abysmal showing against one of the worst offenses in the Cleveland Browns, it might be time to begin starting players facing the Ravens. This week, they face the Broncos, who have shown some offensive prowess in recent weeks, scoring 25+ in three of their last four matchups.
The Bengals, who have been quite poor defensively this season, match up against the Raiders in Week 9. Jakobi Meyers could be a strong start here, as the Bengals have given up the 15th most points to receivers this season — there is a strong opportunity for him to take advantage of this mediocre secondary.
The Cardinals have put up -0.11 EPA/play defensively this season. They play the Bears this week, who struggled against the Commanders offensively, offering Caleb Williams and Chicago the chance to bounce back.
If you’re looking to stream defenses in Week 9, here are some strong options:
- Los Angeles Chargers: Best performing defense against the least efficient offense (Cleveland Browns)
- Tennessee Titans: Playing Patriots, who may be without starting QB Drake Maye
- Houston Texans: Positive defensive efficiency, facing against the struggling Jets in Week 9
- Cincinnati Bengals: This struggling defense has an opportunity for success against the abysmal Raiders offense
Now, let’s finish up with some player profiles.
Player Profiles
Darnell Mooney: Mooney has been incredibly efficient this season, posting 0.81 EPA/play. He isn’t Atlanta’s top target, but when he touches the ball he makes a splash. Look to start him as a flex as the Falcons heat up.
Tyrone Tracy Jr.: Tracy has been sensational in his time as a starter with the Giants. He seems to have thwarted Devin Singletary as the RB1, as in Week 8, he saw 20 carries to Singletary’s two.
Braelon Allen: Allen hasn’t blown anyone away this season, but has shown his merit as a rusher in the opportunities he has had. Stash him on your rosters in case Hall gets injured late in the season.
Travis Kelce: Kelce is back! After a monster performance in Week 8, Kelce has proven that he’s still got it. While he hasn’t been putting up great fantasy numbers, his EPA/play is quite high, telling us the fantasy points are soon to come. Don’t lose faith!
That’s all for this article, be sure to stay tuned for next week’s article!
from Fantasy Footballers Podcast https://ift.tt/wUkYGOi
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