We are at the half way point of the season! Make sure you take a top-down approach with DFS moving from a general overview of the slate, a First Look at DFS salaries, and then moving into where we are here in this article.
Pace of play gives the prospective DFS player an opportunity to consider not just Vegas totals but how the game will be played out in a given week. Game flow is a tricky rabbit hole to jump down when you consider the endless scenarios that can play out in a game. Stacking up-tempo offenses who can keep the ball moving is crucial to gaining an edge in DFS. Even slight differentiations of team trends matter in a world where volume is king.
Each week I’ll highlight my favorite game environments factoring in their pace metrics and stacks to consider for tournaments.
Game Pace Score
A reminder of a simple metric I introduced a couple of years ago: Game Pace Score (GPS). I liked the acronym to also give you a “compass” of how the game total and neutral pace statistics come together. These scores are ranked 1-5 with five indicating the pace of the play is everything you want for a DFS bonanza.
- 5– A back-and-forth shootout is looming. Both teams are pace-up and both sport team implied totals of 25+.
- 4– An up-tempo spot worth game stacking in DFS in multiple ways. Consider multiple game scripts in play.
- 3– This game could go either way. Often, these are onslaught spots for teams with healthy implied totals or games that hit the under because two middling offenses collide.
- 2– Strong indications of a game you want to stay away from. Usually, the pace is dragged down by one team with an absurdly slow neutral pace or a team with a team implied total so low it drags the entire game environment through the mud.
- 1– This has all the makings of a plodder. These games have totals UNDER 40 which gives you zero confidence in DFS.
For Week 9, I’ve sorted by all 32 team implied totals while focusing on neutral pace, pass rate over expectation (PROE), no-huddle rate, and EPA metrics for a final GPS game score.
For a downloadable CSV version of the Pace of Play worksheet, click here.
Dallas Cowboys @ Atlanta Falcons
Whew baby! With two teams in the top-5 of neutral situation pace, things are looking up for this matchup in a dome. The Dallas Cowboys defense is another big part of the story as their units have regressed mightily from their 2023. I had to double check their EPA numbers a couple of times and then check some yardage statistics to make sure I was seeing things properly: 30th in Yards per Play, 31st in Rushing Yards per Game, and 30th in Yards per Pass Attempt. Yup! It’s been that bad opening the door for a back-and-forth affair.
Atlanta’s offense has skewed more pass-heavy since Week 4 and yet they remain a team that would prefer to run the ball with their tandem of Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier. They sport PFF’s 2nd highest graded run-blocking unit and Kirk Cousins‘ magic sauce this year has been standing in the pocket and not rolling out. He leads all QBs in passing yards within the pocket and has thrived with a 10:1 TD:INT ratio in a clean pocket. There is a lot to like with the Atlanta offense but Bijan might the player I’m most interested in. He saw 34% of the team’s rush attempts + targets over the last three weeks and Dallas ranks 28th in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to RBs. He’s forced the 2nd most missed tackles and Dallas ranks bottom-5 in PFF’s team tackling grades. If you are leaning into Atlanta’s near 4-TD team implied total, play Bijan or double stack Kirk knowing he offers nothing on the ground. Drake London still leads all WRs in TPRR inside the red zone (42%) and Dallas is allowing the 2nd highest fantasy points per drop back versus man where London has eaten all year with some awesome metrics: 37% TPRR, 2.26 YPRR, and 32% of the team’s targets. Darnell Mooney would be my preferred 3rd stacking partner > Kyle Pitts this week.
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