Pace of play gives the prospective DFS player an opportunity to consider not just Vegas totals but how the game will be played out in a given week. Game flow is a tricky rabbit hole to jump down when you consider the endless scenarios that can play out in a game. Stacking up-tempo offenses who can keep the ball moving is crucial to gaining an edge in DFS. Even slight differentiations of team trends matter in a world where volume is king.
Each week I’ll highlight my favorite game environments factoring in their pace metrics and stacks to consider for tournaments.
Game Pace Score
A reminder of a simple metric I introduced a couple of years ago: Game Pace Score(GPS). I liked the acronym to also give you a “compass” of how the game total and neutral pace statistics come together. These scores are ranked 1-5 with five indicating the pace of the play is everything you want for a DFS bonanza.
- 5– A back-and-forth shootout is looming. Both teams are pace-up and both sport team implied totals of 25+.
- 4– An up-tempo spot worth game stacking in DFS in multiple ways. Consider multiple game scripts in play.
- 3– This game could go either way. Often, these are onslaught spots for teams with healthy implied totals or games that hit the under because two middling offenses collide.
- 2– Strong indications of a game you want to stay away from. Usually, the pace is dragged down by one team with an absurdly slow neutral pace or a team with a team implied total so low it drags the entire game environment through the mud.
- 1– This has all the makings of a plodder. These games have totals UNDER 40 which gives you zero confidence in DFS.
For Week 8, I’ve sorted by all 32 team implied totals while focusing on neutral pace, pass rate over expectation (PROE), no-huddle rate, and EPA metrics for a final GPS game score.
For a downloadable CSV version of the Pace of Play worksheet, click here.
Green Bay Packers @ Jacksonville Jaguars
This game is hovering around a 50 total but the team offensive efficiency numbers is what should get you most excited. Green Bay rank 5th in EPA per pass and 6th in Yards per Play while spreading the ball out to so many different options. Jordan Love‘s TD rate (8.4%) is astronomical and the matchup this week says he’s too cheap ($7100) on DraftKings. Anyway you want to spin it, the Jaguars pass defense has been boo boo:
- 30th in fantasy points per drop back using zone coverage
- 32nd in fantasy points per drop back using 1-high safety looks
- 32nd in EPA per pass attempt
- 32nd in schedule adjusted fantasy points allowed to QBs
When you add in the fact Jacksonville likes to gamble playing man coverage at the highest rate (43.4%) in the NFL, name a coverage and opponents are ripping it apart. In limited opportunities, Dontayvion Wicks is a one-on-one killer including 55(!) % of the team’s air yards against man coverage. He gets a bump in my mind while Jayden Reed is being targeted on 32% of his routes against blanket Cover-2. Romeo Doubs is a red zone threat but chasing his volume might be a fool’s errand. I try not to play the “he did this last week” game with the Packers WRs. It will shift and the game plan will shift so Wicks and Reed are my leans based on this game environment. Josh Jacobs can be used as a bring-back or a wipe out pick but this game will be valuable thanks to the Packers passing attack.
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