
In 2023, there were 46 QBs who held a QB1 performance, including names such as Mitchell Trubisky, Bailey Zappe, Nick Mullens, Tyson Bagent, and Carson Wentz. This number has hit 40+ in seven of the last eight years, and if Week 1 is any sample, we are well on our way to a similar number in 2024.
If you’re joining us for the first time, this weekly article will be identifying three to four QBs (ranked outside the Ballers top 12) that hold QB1 upside based on matchup. We are here to address the SuperFlex/QB2 position and to help you find those sneaky cheap DFS plays. Below is our Week 1 recap, and now let’s dive into Week 2!
Player Highlighted | Week 1 Ranking | Week 1 Finish |
Matthew Stafford | 14 | 12 |
Baker Mayfield | 15 | 2 |
Geno Smith | 20 | 7 |
Derek Carr | 24 | 6 |
Sam Darnold | 25 | 13 |
Click here to see the Ballers SuperFlex/QB2 Rankings for Week 2!
13. Baker Mayfield
After the QB2 overall performance in Week 1, we’re right back to the well with Baker Mayfield.
Baker shredded the Washington secondary (more on that later) to the tune of 289 yards, four touchdowns, and zero interceptions while adding 21 yards on three carries. At age 29, Baker has finally hit his stride as a Buccaneer.
This week, the Bucs head to Detroit, where the matchup is less appealing, but still presents plenty of value as a volume-based play. Detroit holds PFF’s second-ranked defensive line, and this projects as a bottom-three OL/DL matchup for Tampa, which doesn’t bode well for the run game.
With an absolutely dominant pass rush from Detroit, I’m projecting a higher number of screen and short-yardage passes to Godwin and Rachaad White as a replacement for what I assume will be an abysmal run game. The Lions’ newly assembled secondary showed well against the Rams, however, it will still be wise of Tampa to attack through the air, with both Mike Evans and Godwin projecting well in their individual matchups.
The Bucs hold a healthy team-implied point total of 22 (14th), and as +7.5 underdogs, Vegas is projecting a pass-happy game script early and often. As heavy underdogs in a dome in Detroit, Baker should see 35+ pass attempts in a game with the highest over/under (51.5) on the week. His QB13 ranking feels appropriate, with low-end QB1 upside.
This is his city. @BakerMayfield@Buccaneers pic.twitter.com/vmw2qmg9Q6
— NFL (@NFL) September 8, 2024
14. Matthew Stafford
After a crushing OT loss to the Lions in Week 1, the Rams get a potential bounce-back spot against the Cardinals in Week 2.
Arizona entered the season with PFF’s 32nd-ranked secondary, which is something Sean McVay will hope to exploit. Losing Puka Nacua (knee) is a devastating blow, but Stafford is a veteran leader who has displayed many times that he is capable of elevating the players around him. Cooper Kupp vaults right back into weekly WR1 territory after seeing a ridiculous 21 targets in Week 1, and we wouldn’t be surprised if he led the position in targets once again. His matchup versus SCB Garrett Williams will be one of the keys to this game.
The real question will come down to the trenches, with four of the Rams’ starting offensive linemen on the injury report and/or IR. This is never comforting for a QB, but Stafford has dealt with poor offensive line play his entire career, and will be something to monitor as Sunday approaches.
On the glass-half-full hand, the Cardinals had the second-lowest pass rush grade of any team in Week 1, and it’s worth keeping in mind that despite a band-aid crew at offensive line and sans Puka Nacua, the Rams still put up 20 points against a far superior Detroit defense, and still almost won the game. If McVay can find a way to give Stafford some time, he should provide high-end QB2 numbers once again.
“This was gonna be one of the best offensive lines in the league this year … in a week they’re gone?”@danorlovsky7 on the Matthew Stafford and the Rams dealing with injuries on the o-line
pic.twitter.com/Fr6gq5wZO2
— NFL on ESPN (@ESPNNFL) September 10, 2024
18. Justin Fields
While it is clear the NFL does not believe in Fields anymore, he’s still got QB1 overall upside any time he’s on the field.
“He (Wilson) feels better today than he did over the weekend. What that means, I don’t know as we sit here today. As I sit here today, we’re preparing as if Justin is going to be our quarterback. I think that’s the appropriate way to do it. Speculation is a waste of time.” – Mike Tomlin on Tuesday (9/10).
If you’re following along from last week, you may remember Geno Smith as a target with Denver’s questionable defense. This felt risky at the time, and truthfully, although we loved the outcome, he didn’t get his (QB7) numbers the way we predicted. Interestingly, his damage was not done through the air, completing 18 of 25 passes for 171 yards, one touchdown, and one interception – but what saved him were his legs, adding 30 yards on four carries with one more touchdown. This is what brings us here today.
Fields is one of the most athletic QBs the league has ever seen, and is now leading an entirely different offense in Pittsburgh. The Steelers have invested heavily in their offensive line, and appear to be giving Fields the reins for at least one more week. Although he lacks elite pass catching options, he was still efficient against Atlanta, completing 17 of 23 pass attempts for 156 yards, with no touchdowns or turnovers.
With that said, it’s never the passing we’re interested in with Fields. What we’re looking for in Fields are his rushing attempts, and despite not hitting paydirt last week, he still managed 14 carries for 57 yards (4.1 YPC). This number is far lower than his career average of 6.2 YPC, but makes sense against a formidable Atlanta defense. This week, he takes on the Broncos, who were a bottom-three run funnel against opposing RBs in ’23, and were just gashed by Seattle for 146 yards on the ground. If Fields sees another 10+ carries this week, it may only take one play for him to break your league. Fields has as much upside as anyone at the QB2 position.
Justin Fields made a few cool throws in Week 1 pic.twitter.com/3tPu7PcB6J
— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) September 10, 2024
19. Justin Herbert
If Derek Carr can put up QB6 numbers on Carolina, then I would mortgage my house on Justin Herbert. The question of course will be game plan in this new-look, Greg Roman/Jim Harbaugh offense – but like we said about Carr last week, this may be a chance for the Chargers to build some confidence in their young skill players
Carolina ended the ’23 season in the bottom half of the league in almost every statistical category, and Week 1 against the Saints did not instill confidence. It certainly doesn’t help that their two best players from last season (LB Brian Burns and DT Derrick Brown) will not be with the team in ’24, due to an offseason trade and a season-ending injury. Just one week into the season, there seems to be little hope for improvement in year one of the Dave Canales experience.
Against the league’s worst offensive line in New Orleans, the Panthers boasted just three pass rushes, the lowest percentage in the league. They came in the bottom half of the league in run defense (18th) and struggled mightily against a QB and team that most of us consider a laughingstock in the league. This presents plenty of value for the forgotten Justin Herbert.
Everyone is afraid of Herbert for fantasy purposes, but this is a player who has been a top-12 QB almost every year since he entered the league, and I’m expecting the Chargers to move the ball at will in this game. Despite the change in offensive scheme, Herbert is still a top-10 (real-life) NFL QB in my eyes, and I would be thrilled to start him as my QB2 against Carolina.
Jim Harbaugh knows how to fire up Justin Herbert
pic.twitter.com/WDkaKy5PKm
— NFL on CBS
(@NFLonCBS) September 8, 2024
24. Daniel Jones
And now onto the cringe-worthy!
Last week was abysmal for Jones. So bad that fans stayed for hours after the game to heckle him. So bad that Vikings players were “starting to feel bad for him.” It truly wasn’t a good look, but if there’s a week for Jones to get right, this has to be it.
People are quick to forget that Jones is just one year removed from a QB9 overall season, and while that season was inconsistent, it still shows his upside as a runner and fantasy option. If Brian Daboll can channel that version of Jones and/or get Malik Nabers rolling, he could well outperform his ranking this week.
We targeted the Washington defense via Baker last week, which paid QB2 overall dividends to those who believed. While it will never feel good to have Jones in your lineup, there is reason for hope against one of the league’s worst secondaries. The Giants hold a 20.5 team-implied point total, and as +1.5 underdogs, should be in passing mode at the end of the game. I don’t like it one bit, but it could be worse.
Vikings OLB Jonathan Greenard said they started to feel bad for Daniel Jones when the boos from the crowd got as loud as a typical third-down defense scenario (via @KFAN1003). pic.twitter.com/Soqae7ul1j
— vikesinsider (@vikesinsider) September 10, 2024
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