Pace of play gives the prospective DFS player an opportunity to consider not just Vegas totals but how the game will be played out in a given week. Game flow is a tricky rabbit hole to jump down when you consider the endless scenarios that can play out in a game. Stacking up-tempo offenses who can keep the ball moving is crucial to gaining an edge in DFS. Even slight differentiations of team trends matter in a world where volume is king.
Each week I’ll highlight my favorite game environments factoring in their pace metrics, stacks to consider for tournaments, and five dart throws to shoot for the moon with.
Game Pace Score
A reminder of a simple metric I introduced a couple of years ago: Game Pace Score(GPS). I liked the acronym to also give you a “compass” of how the game total and neutral pace statistics come together. These scores are ranked 1-5 with five indicating the pace of the play is everything you want for a DFS bonanza.
- 5– A back-and-forth shootout is looming. Both teams are pace-up and both sport team implied totals of 25+.
- 4– An up-tempo spot worth game stacking in DFS in multiple ways. Consider multiple game scripts in play.
- 3– This game could go either way. Often, these are onslaught spots for teams with healthy implied totals or games that hit the under because two middling offenses collide.
- 2– Strong indications of a game you want to stay away from. Usually, the pace is dragged down by one team with an absurdly slow neutral pace or a team with a team implied total so low it drags the entire game environment through the mud.
- 1– This has all the makings of a plodder. These games have totals UNDER 40 which gives you zero confidence in DFS.
For Week 3, I’ve sorted by all 32 team implied totals while focusing on pass rate over expectation (PROE), and no-huddle rate from the 1st three weeks, and factor that for a final GPS score. As I mentioned at the beginning of the season, no-huddle rate had one of the strongest correlation coefficients year-to-year.
If you’d like another visual format of Expected Points per Play, shout out to nflelo and one of my favorite websites for analytics & EPA tiers.
Detroit Lions @ Arizona Cardinals
With the highest over/under of the week, it should be guns up for this matchup… right? A closer look at what these teams want to do reveals that we have two offensive units that want to run the ball. Detroit ranks #1 in EPA per rush but they haven’t been able to pull away from teams. The Lions have the most “neutral” offensive snaps of any team according to FantasyPoints DataSuite highlighting how close their first two games were. Their 61% pass rate is the highest of the Ben Johnson era while Jared Goff is facing more man coverage than he’s seen in years. I mentioned this in my 1,000 Fantasy Facts & Scheme Stats primer before the season but Goff’s struggles versus man and against the blitz need to give us a holistic picture of the QB, not just “he’s in a dome” and we log out.
The Cardinals have been not only the more efficient and higher scoring offense, but the Lions have run into some issues inside the red zone thus far. In fact, Detroit has scored a TD on just 27.3% of their trips inside their opponents 20-yard line this season, 28th in the NFL. The RBs have split their looks inside the 20 making it a difficult decision in DFS to figure out exactly who gets the TDs each week. Arizona has cleaned up some of their rushing woes from last year but citing the Rams and their offensive line is not really a valid barometer right now. Jahmyr Gibbs‘ usage makes him a high floor click every week but he’s surpassed 20+ DK points just twice in his 10 games played. I prefer Goff double stacks as an opportunity to lean on variance, the public’s perception of his performance, and his salary. Arizona is running Cover-3 42% of the time, abandoning their overwhelming Quarters strategy of 2023. Goff led the NFL in passing yards and passing TDs versus Cover 3 while ranking behind only Brock Purdy in fantasy points per dropback. It’s a dream spot, but we’ve been saying that the last two weeks.
In terms of his stacking partners, Sam LaPorta is knocking on the door of opportunity. He leads all TEs in routes run in the NFL and yet has been targeted just once inside the red zone. That will change so be willing to pay up knowing McBride in the same game is going to come with roster percentage. LaPorta led the team in Fantasy Points per Route Run versus Cover 3 (skewing towards TDs) while, unsuprisingly, Amon-Ra St. Brown was a true alpha with 32% of the team’s 1st read targets. Jameson Williams has morphed from a prayer to someone we can take seriously in Goff double-stacks. It was never a question of talent but utilization and now we are seeing deep crossers where he breaks away from CBs across the formation. Choose two Lions to pair with Goff and believe this game goes off.
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