Every week the First Look article gives you a taste of the slate and some of the more intriguing salaries that DraftKings and FanDuel release. The goal is to identify early-week cash game considerations, as well as potential tournament plays before we piece together the stacking options. On Tuesdays, I share some of these insights on the Fantasy Footballers DFS & Betting Podcast if you want further commentary on some of the salary standouts.
Check back later in the week when Matthew Betz and I share our official DraftKings and FanDuel picks for cash and GPPs exclusively in the DFS Pass.
Here are the games for this week’s main slate* including team-implied totals (TIP) for each matchup.
Overview
For newcomers, the main slate for DFS includes the Sunday early (1:00 EST) and afternoon games (4:25 EST). At first glance, here are a couple of things to note:
- Off the Main Slate: DAL, NYG, BUF, BAL, TEN, MIA, DEA, DET
- Bye Week Teams: N/A (starts next week!)
- With two Monday night games, the slate shrinks but we also have to keep in mind how many high-end players (DeVonta Smith, Justin Herbert, etc.) might not play with a bye week coming in Week 5.
- With only one game above 48 points, expect the field to flock to the WAS/ARI game with so many narratives at play.
Quarterbacks
- As we saw last week, QBs who carry a ton of roster percentage also bring along their pass-catchers. Consider the combinations of stacks each week and what they have to do to pay off. I gave the example in the Best Plays article from last week: “A Jalen Hurts + DeVonta Smith stack is a combined salary of $14,200. In order for them to 4x their salary, they need 56.8 combined DK points. A Dak + CD stack needs 61.6. A Carr + Olave stack only needs 48… Sounds easy right? Well, what if I told you (sorry, the 30-for-30 voice lives rent free in my mind) Carr + Olave have surpassed that just ONCE in 18 games played together? They’ve hit 40+ just three times.” Dak was the only QB who went off and none of the other combinations were needed in tourneys.
- It was a complete dud by the Texans and C.J. Stroud ($7000) last week. In DFS, we can delete that knowing Stroud cooked against the Jaguars last year: 280 & 2 and 304 , 2 + 47 and 1 on the ground. The Texans carry a healthy 25+ team implied total as a near TD favorite. The Jaguars are 30th in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed so far to opposing QBs.
- Kyler Murray ($6800) & Jayden Daniels ($6500) are going to be the main conversation piece this week in both cash and tournament formats. The rushing floor for both make them attractive as Daniels (44.3 rushing yards per game) and Murray (40) are in a class of their own considering Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson are off this slate. Circle them both and agonize all week.
- Kirk Cousins ($5800) at home should be a narrative worth exploring… right? He’s a zero on the ground and the Saints defense ranks 6th in EPA per pass attempt. Oh, and the Falcons can’t sustain any drives.
The Falcons have converted SIX total 3rd downs in 3 games.
That ranks 319th out of 320 NFL teams over the last decade to start a season.
Pain.
— Kyle Borgognoni (@kyle_borg) September 24, 2024
Want to read the rest of this article?
Get the Ultimate DFS Pass from The Fantasy Footballers for instant access. Expert advice, weekly picks, premium reports, trusted & award-winning weekly resources.
Get the Ultimate DFS PassAlready have the DFS Pass? Login to access
from Fantasy Footballers Podcast https://ift.tt/s3nAOur
No comments: