I often share that each week in DFS is its own multiverse; you cannot compare what happened last week and use the same exact criteria in evaluating your decisions.
However, some weeks feel crystal clear in the approach. As I’ll outline this week, it felt like 3-4 plays in cash were essentially “made for you” by the NFL scriptwriters.
The goal of this article is neither to boast nor wallow in “shoulda, woulda, couldas” but rather give a transparent look at my thought process for the week. Hopefully, this will help DFS & Betting Podcast listeners and DFS Pass subscribers get a deeper window into the ups and downs of playing DFS and help you in your selections each week. On Tuesdays, Betz and I review our cash lineups, and this week we’ll give some common overreactions we see and hear.
For cash, I specifically play 50/50s, Double-Ups, and H2Hs on DraftKings. I’ll share my unfiltered gut reaction, and the thought process behind this lineup construction, and at the bottom, I will post my weekly results including the cash line and H2H record to stay accountable with you.
If you want to go back to the drawing board, we did an overview podcast before the season on DFS Cash Game Strategy + Creating Player Pools. I also published an article on DFS Strategy for Beginners and another entitled: How to Approach Each Position in DFS & Gain an Edge.
Week 3 Cash Lineup
Draft % and cash lines each week will be from DraftKings’ $25 Single-Entry Double-Up with roughly 5,000 entries. This is a slightly elevated price point from the $1, $5, and $10 double-ups and I think gives a solid idea each week of double-up roster percentages.
The Thought Process
Cash Locks (In My Opinion)
- In our Week 3 DFS Best Plays (which comes out on Saturdays for DFS Pass subscribers only), I shared the pool of players and this week was blatantly obvious who the top plays were.
- The 49ers (Mason & Aiyuk) were widely rostered in Double-Ups and you knew that going into it. The outcome was obviously a downer but the fact over 2/3rds of the field played these guys meant you could withstand their output as I obviously did. You can get mad at them all you want (Jauan Jennings said I want all the TDs!) but in cash, you likely were not burned by that decision if the rest of your lineup was constructed properly.
- Outside of those two, DeVonta Smith might’ve been the only other player I considered a must-play. His 30% target share and the game environment made him. Oh, and he’s my “my guy” this year so I was all-in from the get-go.
Gut-Wrenching Decisions
My goal in this section is to discuss the pool of players I considered for cash and how I arrived at my final lineup.
- At QB, I only really considered two guys: Jalen Hurts ($7300) or Kyler Murray ($6900). Both represented extremely high floors with upside given their rushing production and the dome game environments they found themselves in. I sided with Hurts to stack with Smith as I honestly held onto a stat from my Pace of Play research tightly: “whenever games were above the 49-point mark in 2023, he averaged 24.9 DK points in those contests.” Kyler’s splits against pressure also made me pause so I went full fade in tourneys and decided to go all-in on “Dak stacks” for GPPs. It started out poorly but he ended up being the QB1 on the slate although CeeDee Lamb was certainly not the beneficiary.
- At TE, I mostly looked at Trey McBride ($6200), Jake Ferguson ($4500), and a punt option of Greg Dulcich ($2900). They each represented three different price points and as I wrote in the Best Plays article, the opportunity cost felt clear: “If we had all the money in the world, it would be McBride. Ferguson practiced fully on Friday and the game environment says we want access to the Dallas passing game. Punting this week feels gross as we added names like Greg Dulcich (when has he ever let you down?) and Eric Saubert? Honestly, I had to look up which team he plays for (San Francisco) because I forgot he was a human being on this planet. Regardless, punting in cash won’t be a popular route this week with the field preferring balanced builds so we’d prefer you steer clear of that.” I wanted part of the Dallas passing game and Fergie was the cheapest route in cash. His price point and RZ target share from the previous year won out over McBride.
- At RB, I toyed with a 3RB build for a couple of days. Alvin Kamara ($7500) was always part of the RB crew along with Jahmyr Gibbs ($6800), Tony Pollard ($6000), and Zach Charbonnet ($6000). All four of those RBs projected like solid assets but as you’ll see, one of them was popping in points per dollar despite my own priors.
- When we received info that Joe Mixon was trending out and Dameon Pierce also would likely not be available, Cam Akers ($4700) added a bit of intrigue to this slate. What could I build IF Akers was in my lineup at that cheap price point and what would he have to do to justify playing him? I wrote down 10 points as something that I would be happy with and by golly, he almost got there (9.9)! Don’t be mad at Akers if you rostered him. Fortunately, none of the other highly rostered RBs in cash (Kamara, Achane, Pollard) balled out so you didn’t miss out. However, the RBs we listed in our GPP picks (Derrick Henry & Saquon Barkley) did! Remember to weigh out leverage points like this:
- To be honest, I didn’t like the fact that the cheaper RB options I thought about rostering were profiling as inefficient plodders. Up to that point, Charbonnet was arguably the least efficient RB in the NFL in terms of rush success rate and his metrics from 2023 pointed to a player who was a jack-of-all-trades but a master of none. However, the Miami defensive line is a completely different group from a year ago and the fact that Charbonnet could comfortably be projected for 18 opportunities made him a star at his price point. In terms of weighted opportunities per dollar, I identified him earlier in the week as a steal and I posted this info with our DFS Discord channel.
- With Aiyuk and Smith locked into my cash lineup, the construction of my lineup ultimately came down to who I wanted at the 3rd WR spot and the $6K guys were once again in the mix. I assumed the cards would be turned over in H2Hs and its Aiyuk, Smith, and Chris Olave. The balance builds were going to show up so wasn’t afraid of the high priced guys showing up a ton except for maybe Amon-Ra St. Brown. I sided with CeeDee Lamb might be a better tournament play. I wrote in the Best plays “We don’t love the punt plays this week as the RB values hopefully give you enough relief to not have to play anyone sub $4K. Jauan Jennings is fine. There I said it. He’s fine at his price point but how many 49ers are you actually going to play in cash?” Spoiler: Jennings was more than fine.
- Here were the WRs we posted in Best Plays if you wanted to see how we divided them up. Tank Dell (I must confess) is probably too closely connected to my heart. His projection at $5,200 and the balanced build approach boosted him slightly in my rankings.
| DraftKings-WR | BORG | BETZ |
| 1 | Brandon Aiyuk | Brandon Aiyuk |
| 2 | DeVonta Smith | DeVonta Smith |
| 3 | CeeDee Lamb | Chris Olave |
| 4 | Tank Dell | Tank Dell |
| 5 | Chris Olave | Chris Godwin |
| 6 | DK Metcalf | Jauan Jennings |
| 7 | Rashid Shaheed | Rashid Shaheed |
| 8 | Jauan Jennings | Diontae Johnson |
- Charbonnet ultimately won out over Olave from a median outcome although I certainly was fearful of a ceiling game where Olave and the Saints went back-and-forth with the Eagles. You can see my inner turmoil as I texted Betz over this decision.
- At DST, I had the Buccaneers ($3000), Titans ($2700), and Bears ($2600) as the main options to consider. That decision came down to the wire and there were a couple of things I weighed including the news that the Bucs would be missing DT Vita Vea and All-Pro CB Antoine Winfield Jr. I mentioned on the podcast that if Malik Willis was starting that I would be playing the Titans and I kept my word. My lineup actually ended up having $300 to play with so I could’ve I debated up until lock spending that to get up to Tampa Bay. I ultimately decided to hang onto that cash for a potential late window swap. If my early plays (and the Saints I didn’t roster) buried me, I had the cash to get different in the late window from 49ers plays.
- I arrived at a final decision point looking at these two lineups: to Olave or not to Olave. Not having a Saint in my final roster was a bit of a risk.
Mistakes Were Made …
Every week I’ll highlight my biggest mistakes which range from not weighing low-end outcomes to assuming, to not thinking, and ultimately moving away from plays I started with. We’ve all been there… stay water. Don’t try to justify yourself or make things sound better than they were. You made a decision, now deal with it.
- I must confess my love for Tank Dell. In hindsight, having two Texans on this roster might’ve been overkill considering the matchup.
- Playing a DST against a Matt LaFleur-coached offense seems like a bad move.
- Oh, and there is so much about the NFL we don’t know.
2024 Results
Each week I’ll post my head-to-head (H2H) win percentage here to give you an idea of what type of week I had. Keep in mind there are varying price points, competition, and players who take my H2Hs in the lobby that have no rhyme or reason. The volume of my H2Hs differs each week due to my feeling of the slate and my weekend activities with my family. Every week I will also post the “cash line” from the $25 Double-Up from DraftKings.
| Week | Cash Line | DK Pts | H2H Win% | Note |
| 1 | 125.98 | 113.08 | 23% | Engram Failure |
| 2 | 128.84 | 139.04 | 88% | Godwin Life |
| 3 | 112.38 | 116.14 | 80% | Charbs |
| AVG* | 122.40 | 122.75 | 68% | — |
It’s a solid start to the year. My biggest takeaway is being able to “read the slate” and I identify GPP plays that benefit our listeners.
You guys are goated pic.twitter.com/DbWUMwetL0
— Biam (@Biammboi) September 23, 2024
from Fantasy Footballers Podcast https://ift.tt/PBsNaIl
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