We’ve already been enlightened about the TRUTH of the QB and RB positions in 2025. If you haven’t listened to those episodes or if you want to get deeper into the data, you can check these awesome articles by Kurt Mullen (QBs) and Kemper Trull (RBs).
Now it’s time to talk about a position that quietly let us down across the board this season: WRs.
Connect with the show:
Wide Receivers Overview
If 2025 taught us anything, it’s that elite WR production can be volatile. WR scoring was down across the league, and not in a subtle way. In fact, 2025 produced the second-fewest total receptions and receiving yards by WRs over the last decade, alongside a massive dip in receiving TDs. We saw 67 fewer WR receiving TDs than in 2024, and only 10 WRs reached 8+ receiving TDs, compared to 17 the year prior.
This lines up perfectly with what Andy, Mike, and Jason discussed in the QB TRUTH episode. Passing volume flattened, and there were fewer offensive plays than in 2024. This makes it harder for WRs to get those explosive weeks. And yet, the very top of the position still mattered immensely. The WRs who separated themselves did so through efficiency, role clarity, and consistency, not just raw athleticism.
Before diving into the rankings, here’s a refresher on how the TRUTH algorithm evaluates fantasy performances (Week 18 excluded):
Great Games: 20+ fantasy points
Good Games: 12.5+ fantasy points
Bust Games: Fewer than 7.5 fantasy points
Missed Games (injury) do not count against consistency
All data is based on Half-PPR scoring.
1. Puka Nacua | Los Angeles Rams
Age: 24.6 | ADP: 2.01/WR6
Consistency Rank: 1 | 1st half: 3 / 2nd half: 1
| Great games | Good games | Bust games |
| 38% | 81% | 6% |
Puka didn’t just finish as the WR1 in consistency; he did it in a way that made matchup analysis almost irrelevant. His bust percentage went down from 18% to 6%, which is only one game. When healthy, he is a machine. In 16 games, Nacua commanded 166 targets, finishing with 129 receptions for 1,715 yards and 10 TDs, while leading the league at 107 receiving yards per game. His production was almost identical against top-16 and bottom-16 defenses and virtually unchanged home vs. road.
What truly separates Puka is how he produces. He posted the 3rd-highest Receiving Success Rate of all time (70.5%), dominated contested situations with a 71% contested-catch rate, and logged 27 contested receptions, the most by any WR over the last decade.
In a down year for WR scoring, Puka was a consistent weekly advantage.
2. Jaxon Smith-Njigba | Seattle Seahawks
Age: 23.9 | ADP: 3.08/WR14
Consistency Rank: 2 | 1st half: 2 / 2nd half: 3
| Great games | Good games | Bust games |
| 29% | 76% | 6% |
This season, JSN announced himself as an elite WR. Just like Puka, he only had one bust game. He was also just as consistent and trustworthy, leading the NFL with 1,793 receiving yards, posting a massive 35% target share, and delivering 12 top-12 performances. Even more impressive: 45% of Seattle’s first-read targets flowed through him, the highest rate of any WR over the last four years.
He led his team in every quarter with the highest target share, targets per route run, and yards per route run, and led the league in receiving yards on go routes. If we want to keep comparing him with Puka, they are the only two receivers who have gained 100 or more receiving yards on eight different route types in a single season. All this should earn him consideration as the 1.01 in Dynasty.
3. Amon-Ra St. Brown | Detroit Lions
Age: 26.2 | ADP: 1.10/WR4
Consistency Rank: 5 | 1st half: 4 / 2nd half: 17
| Great games | Good games | Bust games |
| 24% | 59% | 24% |
He played through some injuries late in the season, but at this point, Amon-Ra is just a reliable fantasy constant. For the third straight season, he finished as WR3, leading all WRs in red-zone targets with 33, and matching entire NFL teams in receiving TDs inside the 20 (hello Giants and Jets). He now has 547 receptions in his career. No one in NFL history has caught more passes than him in their first five seasons.
He was much better against bottom-16 defenses and averaged five fewer points against the top-16 ones. He also led the league in drops with 13, but it didn’t matter. Until age shows up, Amon-Ra remains one of the safest elite WR investments in fantasy football.
Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images
4. Ja’Marr Chase | Cincinnati Bengals
Age: 25.8 | ADP: 1.01/WR1
Consistency Rank: 3 | 1st half: 5 / 2nd half: 4
| Great games | Good games | Bust games |
| 31% | 69% | 25% |
Ja’Marr Chase’s 2025 season was chaotic, context-heavy, and historically impressive all at once. Despite missed time and a decimated QB situation, Chase led the league with 182 targets, posted multiple nuclear weeks, and now ranks #1 all-time in fantasy points and targets through a player’s first five seasons. His home/road splits were extreme, his aDOT continued to trend downward year over year, and yet the production kept coming.
Even after losing Joe Burrow and having everything against him during the weeks with Jake Browning as his QB, Chase came through and proved why he belongs among the fantasy elite.
5. George Pickens | Dallas Cowboys
Age: 24.8 | ADP: 6.01/WR28
Consistency Rank: 6 | 1st half: 6 / 2nd half: 11
| Great games | Good games | Bust games |
| 29% | 53% | 24% |
Pickens was one of the most fascinating WR stories of the season. After a scorching mid-year run with five 20+ fantasy point games, his production and consistency fell off in the final weeks, but he had a brilliant season. He was dominant on slant routes, leading the league with 323 receiving yards on slants.
It’s inevitable to compare him to CeeDee Lamb, who missed three weeks and finished as the WR20. Despite Lamb hitting some important career highs, Pickens turned out to be the best of the two for fantasy, especially considering his much lower price in drafts. If he re-signs and keeps this role, his 2026 ADP is almost guaranteed to rise.
6. Chris Olave | New Orleans Saints
Age: 25.6 | ADP: 7.05/WR34
Consistency Rank: 8 | 1st half: 21 / 2nd half: 2
| Great games | Good games | Bust games |
| 19% | 44% | 13% |
Chris Olave finally unlocked ceiling games. Maybe he just needed to play with a good QB. Before 2025, Olave had never recorded a 20+ fantasy point game. That changed after Tyler Shough took over in Week 9. From that point on, Olave delivered five top-12 finishes, led all WRs in 20+ yard targets, and accounted for 50% of the Saints’ receiving TDs.
But there are some concerns. Nearly all of those ceiling games came against weak secondaries. And there is also his concussion history. Olave feels destined for that uncomfortable tier where he’s too talented to fade but still matchup-sensitive week to week, and that is a TRUTH we have to take into account.
Mitch Stringer-Imagn Images
7. Zay Flowers | Baltimore Ravens
Age: 25.3 | ADP: 5.12/WR27
Consistency Rank: 16 | 1st half: 30 / 2nd half: 10
| Great games | Good games | Bust games |
| 12% | 29% | 18% |
Zay Flowers perfectly encapsulates what WR scoring felt like in 2025. He finished as WR7, yet averaged just 12.1 fantasy points per game, the lowest ever for a WR7. And even though he finished this high, he spent 53% of his games in the dreaded “meh” range (not good, not bust) and scored only five receiving TDs, the fewest by a top-10 WR since 2017. He was “good” only 29% of the time, which is the lowest of any WR in the top 14 since we started doing the TRUTH series.
So Zay Flowers was not a player who helped you in fantasy. His Week 1 boom performance forced fantasy managers to trust him every week, and he was terribly inconsistent, especially during the first half of the season. We have to be objective here and consider him a WR2 despite finishing inside the top 10. He is good, but his 118 total targets are not in the WR1 realm. So we should manage expectations.
8. Davante Adams | Los Angeles Rams
Age: 33.1 | ADP: 4.09/WR19)
Consistency Rank: 7 | 1st half: 7 / 2nd half: 15
Davante Adams turned 2025 into a goal-line masterclass. He led the NFL in TDs and end-zone targets despite missing three weeks. In just 14 games, Adams caught 14 receiving TDs (out of 60 total receptions) and racked up 16 targets inside the 5-yard line, the most by any player since targets have been tracked. He tied Dez Bryant’s all-time record for inside-the-5 receiving TDs in a season. No one is better than Davante inside the 5.
The efficiency was absurd, and the sustainability is questionable. Adams posted the second-fewest receiving yards ever for a 14+ TD WR season and logged the lowest catchable-target rate among top-15 WRs. He is still under contract for 2026, so will we get another high-efficiency season from Davante Adams and Matthew Stafford? Let’s see how things unfold next draft season.
9. Nico Collins | Houston Texans
Age: 26.8 | ADP: 2.03 (WR7)
Consistency Rank: 11 | 1st half: 20 / 2nd half: 9
| Great games | Good games | Bust games |
| 7% | 53% | 27% |
Nico Collins continues to be one of fantasy football’s steadiest WRs. Despite injuries and offensive stagnation, Collins recorded his third straight 1,000-yard season, becoming one of only six WRs to accomplish this. He led the NFL in receiving yards on POST routes, and it’s important to note that he faced press coverage on 43% of his routes, the second-highest rate in the league.
Here comes the hard TRUTH: The concern isn’t Collins, it’s Houston. Without an offensive leap, his ceiling remains capped, but when he’s active, the profile screams low-end WR1 safety when he’s healthy. And one thing’s for sure: the Ballers would much rather draft Nico Collins than Zay Flowers.
Junfu Han / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images
10. Jameson Williams | Detroit Lions
Age: 24.8 | ADP: 5.12 (WR26)
Consistency Rank: 15 | 1st half: 38 / 2nd half: 7
| Great games | Good games | Bust games |
| 18% | 47% | 41% |
Jameson Williams’ campaign was a tale of two seasons. He managed to sneak into the top 10 after a very strong second half. Through Week 9, he averaged 4.5 targets and 44 receiving yards per game. After Dan Campbell took over play-calling in Week 10, that number jumped to seven targets and 85 yards per game. The role change was immediate and obvious.
Williams finished top-10 while averaging just 11 fantasy points per game, the lowest ever for a top-10 WR finish. This kind of average in fantasy points per game usually finishes around WR20, which is indicative of how low-scoring this season was. Drops remain an issue, he struggled in two-WR sets, and his targets per route run were lower than ever. Through four seasons, he’s only been targeted on 19% of his routes. This makes him a volatile WR, but he is capable of winning weeks when things break right.
from Fantasy Footballers Podcast https://ift.tt/ardiJyK
Reviewed by Admin
on
January 29, 2026
Rating:
No comments: