From Kemper Trull:
Just a week after “Steakgate,” Jason returned to the dynasty pod to deliver fantasy goodness! The boys discussed the status of each of their fantasy leagues, as Jason bemoaned his QB injuries, and Borg got clear FOMO at the mention of a trade happening without him. We’ve all been there.
Kyle dropped some breaking news that the TFFB Trade Analyzer is making its way to the TFFB app soon! This tool has been a big hit on the website, and it continues to get more and more refined.
Before we get into the Weekly Rewind, remember to listen to The Fantasy Footballers podcast, available wherever you listen to your podcasts.
Weekly Rewind
Jameson Williams
The boys discussed whether Jamo fits the profile of a true #1 WR or is more of a gadget player who fits the Dan Campbell scheme perfectly. Williams is tied for the highest percentage of crossing routes in the NFL (~21%), and over the last three weeks, he has been targeted on 38% of these routes, with an astonishing 8.31 YPRR. Things were really unlocked when Dan Campbell (Gaston) took over the playcalling duties from John Morton (Lefou). Kyle asked each panelist which Alabama first-round WR pick they would rather have in dynasty, between Jaylen Waddle (27 y/o), Devonta Smith (27 y/o), and Jameson Williams (24.6 y/o).
- Jason/Kyle: Smith > Waddle > Jamo based on WR talent.
- Betz: Waddle > Jamo > Smith, based on Jamo’s ceiling.
Dynasty Takeaway: All three agree on Jamo’s talent and the opportunity in Detroit, but they also agree that his consistency may dog him forever in fantasy. He’s viewed as a high-upside WR2/WR3 in dynasty.
RJ Harvey
Betz was excited to see how the workload was split in Denver this week, the first since J.K. Dobbins was placed on IR. Despite relatively weak production against the Chiefs, he was encouraged by Harvey’s usage but annoyed that Jaleel McLaughlin received a goal line carry.
Dynasty Takeaway: Still a bit murky, but with big-play potential, Kyle assured us “it’s going to be fine over time.”
Woody Marks
Jason is encouraged by Marks’ utilization in Houston, but was wondering why his production fell short against a bad Tennessee Titans team. The film didn’t do Marks any favors, as Jason rated him as “slightly above average” and rated his vision as “mediocre,” although he felt that Tennessee stacked the box to take away Marks and make Davis Mills beat them.
Dynasty Takeaway: Jason is mostly mid on Marks, given the 4th round draft capital and modest performance. He believes he’s actually more useful for contenders, since his role seems more solidified for the rest of the season. There are concerns that the Texans will move in another direction next year, something they recently did with another 4th-round surprise breakout RB, Dameon Pierce.
Regress or Impress
Kyle introduces the segment as having definitive redraft implications but also worthy of dynasty consideration.
Nico Collins
For the first month+ of the season, Nico was submarining teams. Over the last three weeks, with Davis Mills at QB, he’s commanding a 29% target share, over 100 yards, and 16.6 fantasy points per game.
Jason makes comparisons to the situation in Arizona, where Jacoby Brissett has been the pocket passer the offense desperately needed. But Jason believes Nico will be successful when Stroud returns, and he is still high on him in redraft and dynasty.
Verdict: Holding steady, not really regressing, but not capable of impressing to the degree we had hoped. The offensive line is too bad, and the defense is too good for Nico to be the WR1 overall (which seemed in the realm of possibility in the preseason), but the boys agree he’s still in the tier of back-end WR1s. WR12 in dynasty rankings.
Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images
Travis Etienne Jr.
Kyle is wondering what to do with Etienne vs. Bhayshul Tuten. Etienne is in the final year of his contract. Jason notes that we know Etienne is capable of regressing, as his 2024 season clearly showed us. Betz wonders if Tuten was on the brink of taking over the backfield, given his outsized snapshare in Week 11, but Jason chalks it up more to the “hot hand” approach. Jason does not predict a workhorse role in this backfield, and even if the Jags lose Etienne next year, he expects they will bring in another complementary back to accompany Tuten.
Verdict: Jason says Etienne is currently impressing but will regress again. He’s a nervous start each week, despite being RB13 on the season. The team expects Etienne may be the third or fourth-hottest RB free agency target next year, falling behind Breece Hall, Kenneth Walker III, and possibly Rico Dowdle. RB22 in dynasty rankings.
AJ Barner
Barner had 11 targets in Week 11, and he was the first TE on the field for every single drive in the game. In the preseason, Kyle expected to rank Elijah Arroyo ahead of AJ Barner preseason, and he and Jason may still feel that way. The conversation devolved into trashing TJ Hockenson, which was fun.
Verdict: Barner has impressed but is expected to regress. Jason is out on the TEs in Seattle, based on target competition between each other and the WRs. TE21 in dynasty rankings.
Christian Watson
Kyle asks what the plan is for Watson and rookie Matthew Golden. The guys agreed that things have been weird for Golden so far, and Jason reiterates that he should have been a third-round pick. Watson signed a one-year extension this offseason, and his boom/bust downfield role seems to be pretty carved out for the time being. The conversation focused more on the frustration over Matthew Golden’s lack of production.
Verdict: Betz mentioned that Romeo Doubs is a free agent after this season. He believes that if the team brings back Doubs, that speaks to a lack of team confidence in Golden. Jason is skeptical of Golden’s future. Borg pointed out that one of the stickiest college stats that predicts NFL success is a player’s ability to earn targets. The list of first-round WR busts who soared up the draft board after a few big plays (Henry Ruggs, Phillip Dorsett, to name a few) proves this point. Watson is WR53 in dynasty rankings.
From Chris Cash:
Dynasty Film Review – Week 11
George Pickens
George Pickens is putting the league on alert that he is an elite receiver and needs to get compensated like one next year. The Raiders’ defense had no answer for the Cowboys’ WR “2,” who went 9/144/1 even though he rode the bench on the first drive for being late to meetings. He is playing for a contract and doing big things with or without CeeDee Lamb on the field.
George Pickens had no problem adjusting and taking advantage of the Kyu Kelley one-on-one. Excellent cut to finish the play. pic.twitter.com/9npQNhc8Zv
— Christopher Key Cash (@ChrisCashMusic) November 19, 2025
On this TD play, notice how he flattens the slant route to more of a dig to exploit the space closer to Dak since the second safety came up to presumably guard the TE (who dropped into pass protection). Most impressively, he changes direction outward after the catch to exploit the single high safety in the middle of the field. Turpin is running out of the slot and does an excellent job taking his matchup and the one safety with him. Picken’s vision to see the open space in the field is perfect. The cut proves this at the end of the play, realizing that the two DBs are late and will have too much momentum towards the sideline to change direction back towards him for the tackle.
Where Pickens has really excelled this year is against single-high coverage, where his fantasy points per route run (FP/RR) jump from .54 to .86. When exploiting matchups, fantasy owners need to see what type of defense he is facing each week and make him a set-it-and-forget-it when that team runs a lot of Cover 1. Since he lines up outside on 90% of plays, he wins consistently in his one-on-one matchup, as illustrated on the play above. He’s run the fifth-most slant routes this year and is dominating them with a 17.08% win rate (also fifth-best, minimum 100 routes).
Pickens’ value moving forward relies heavily on two factors.
- Will the Cowboys re-sign him? With the new additions on defense, is DAL willing (or able) to take the same route as the Bengals and allocate an extravagant amount to the WR position? If so, you can view Pickens in the WR20 zone and expect him to continue providing solid production.
- Will another team make him a franchise WR? It’s too early to tell how the chips will fall next year, but if the Cowboys don’t re-sign him, who will? And what type of team is it? If he ends up on a bottom dweller (think this year’s Browns or Titans), that moves him more towards the WR 25 – 30 range and will rely heavily on the QB he’s attached to.
Brock Bowers
Bower’s 7/72/0 on 12 targets is a vanilla line considering his upside, but most of those issues fall on his QB Geno Smith, who continues to struggle. Let’s not let that taint our beloved Brock, as he continues to prove he’s more of a receiving threat than a traditional TE.
The Raider's 48.9% motion rate is 7th worst, but Brock Bowers gets plenty of chances to move before the snap.
Where he lines up:
Inline: 34%
Slot: 46%
Wide: 20% pic.twitter.com/y7g4UiJcz9— Christopher Key Cash (@ChrisCashMusic) November 19, 2025
The Raiders aren’t moving into the new era of more motion, doing so on only 49% of snaps (seventh-lowest in the league). But that doesn’t stop Bowers from moving around to exploit mismatches. In this play, he moves while the LBs adjust (yet, no one follows him directly). LV’s play action makes the defense bite hard, leaving Bowers an easy corner route into a soft zone for an easy completion. That’s his MO, and his TPRR jumps from 25% to 33% out wide.
The main fantasy question surrounding Bowers is, who is number one moving forward? Him, or Trey McBride? With McBride on vacation from the purgatory that was Kyler Murray as his QB, he is showing us all what he really is, most notably, in the end zone department. McBride is slowly overtaking, with a 28% target share compared to Bower’s 24%. The main difference is how they score points: McBride is more valuable in full PPR since he will get more catches, while Bower’s outpaces him in yards per route run, making him more useful in .5 and standard formats. Both are incredible fantasy values for the foreseeable future.
from Fantasy Footballers Podcast https://ift.tt/Xh43IAf
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